018
FXUS63 KJKL 020345 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1145 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of rain will affect the region overnight, before
  dissipating Sunday morning.

- An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out through
  Sunday afternoon.

- Dry conditions and below normal temperatures return for early
  next week, with highs only reaching the 50s to low 60s and
  nights deep in the 30s.

- Warmer weather returns for the middle of next week.

- After tomorrow (Sunday), the next chance for rain is expected on
  Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Rain is reaching the ground from near Johnson County to Harlan
County and points to the west ahead of an upper low and
disturbances rotating around it and a baroclinic zone moving into
eastern KY. Hourly grids have been updated based on observations
and radar trends.

UPDATE Issued at 515 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Patchy light rain and sprinkles were occurring a bit further east
than some of the guidance and the previous forecast. Pops were
raised early this evening for the southern two thirds of the area
for an initial area of sprinkles and patchy light rain. The main
area of rainfall nearer to a cold front and upper level shortwave
will work across the region later this evening and into the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 331 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

High pressure that was in control yesterday through this morning is
now moving east of the region, as a low pressure system continues to
occlude across Lower Michigan. This surface system is in correlation
with a strong upper level low that is currently diving southeastward
across the Midwest, reaching western KY overnight. Throughout the
day tomorrow (Sunday), these two (surface vs. upper level) systems
will become detached, with a new surface low forming across the
Tennessee Valley as the upper level low continues to track that
direction. This will cut off flow to the Michigan surface low, which
will lose strength, wrap in on itself, and dissipate by Sunday
afternoon. A cold front associated with the first low pressure
system over Michigan is currently stretched SE through the Ohio
Valley, north-central and western KY, and farther into the lower
Mississippi Valley. This front is expected to progress eastward,
moving across the JKL CWA during the overnight, as heights aloft
quickly lower ahead of the incoming upper level low. However,
instead of exiting the state, the front will then stall across
eastern Kentucky as the new surface low begins to form along this
line, keeping some level of instability across the region through
much of the day Sunday.

In sensible weather terms, the continued influx of southerly flow in
especially the mid and upper levels will continue to advect in
warmer and moist air ahead of the approaching cold front today and
tonight. There is a lot of surface dry air currently in place across
eastern KY that the moisture will have to overcome, but expect this
to occur and rain chances to begin over the next few hours in the
western CWA, increasing and moving eastward as we head into the
evening. The actual frontal boundary will impact eastern Kentucky
overnight, which, coupled with the increasing energy aloft with the
upper level low located over western KY, will lead to an uptick in
rain chances across the CWA. The precipitation will begin to taper
off on Sunday morning, however as the frontal boundary becomes more
stationary and never actually exits the state, and the upper level
low remains intact as the new surface low develops, the
precipitation chances will not fully dissipate or exit. A few
lingering showers may remain, especially in the southern CWA
into the afternoon. In fact, given the increased energy in the
area, and rising daytime temps, can`t rule out a few rumbles of
thunder either (though the likelihood is quite low).

Though the upper level low will remain just to our south Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night, our location on the northern side will
mean two things, less moisture advection and colder temperatures
with the strong influx of N to NW flow. This will effectively cut
off any remaining rainfall and give way to clearing conditions by
Sunday evening.

As surface high pressure to our southwest also begins to nose it`s
way closer to the state Sunday night, temperatures will drop, and
surface winds will lesson. Therefore, would not be surprised if we
see some pretty good fog development given the moist environment
Sunday night into Monday morning. Temperatures could be some 10 to
15 degrees colder Sunday night/Monday morning compared to
tonight/Sunday morning after this system moves through, especially
in the deeper valleys where cold air is likely to sink and settle
with the increasing subsidence. Kept with previous forecast of
ridge/valley differences, and was fairly liberal with the fog
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

The long term opens with a closed low over the southeast with
ridging building in from the west. Zonal flow will dominate the
extended through Thursday. This will result in dry and quiet
weather. Models do depict an upper level low passing through the
Great Lakes region on Wednesday, however, there should be little
to no impact on local weather in Eastern Kentucky.

A trough begins to deepen across the Central Plains on Friday,
leading to a frontal passage and rain. Active weather continues for
the weekend with a quick shortwave passage Saturday into Sunday
leading to the next chance of precipitation.

Temperatures will warm through Wednesday, with afternoon highs
generally in the 60s through next week. Wednesday and Friday may
reach upper 60s. For the evenings, clear skies and light winds will
favor strong ridge valley splits. As much is expected Monday and
Tuesday night, with valleys and colder hollows dipping into the low
30s. Along ridgetops, slightly stronger winds will favor
temperatures being in the lower 40s. Beyond night, lows will
generally be in the 40s, getting slightly warmer each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

VFR was occurring at issuance time as moisture and areas of light
rain continue to overspread eastern KY. Steadier rain and MVFR
to IFR visibilities and/or ceilings were present over western KY
and northwestern TN. As an upper level low tracks into the TN
Valley a couple of upper level disturbance and an associated cold
front will cross the region tonight to Sunday morning. The
steadier rain and a moistening from the top down will occur during
the first 6 to 12 hours of the period. MVFR or lower ceilings
should at least briefly reach as far east as near KLNP to KJKL to
KSYM and west. Some IFR could affect areas generally along or west
of I-75, particularly KSME for a few hours after about 08Z.
Clouds will begin moving in from the west during the afternoon.
Rain should diminish 12Z to 15Z with an associated improvement in
ceilings and visibility to mainly MVFR by 18Z. Winds will
generally be 10KT or less through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP