845
FXUS63 KJKL 011734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1234 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A messy weather event is on track for tonight and Tuesday, with
  a good potential for wintery precipitation, especially north of
  the Mountain Parkway.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the
  week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder
  than normal.

- The pattern will turn active towards the weekend with additional
  chances of precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025

The forecast is on track, so no substantive changes were needed to
the forecast other than the blend in the latest hourly
observations and interpolate to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 812 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025

No substantive changes were made as early morning obs were blended
into the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 541 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from the
northern plains to the four corners region, with largely zonal
flow eastward over the central and southern Appalachians. At the
surface, sprawling high pressure was centered over the Midwest,
supplying a cold air mass for our area with benign weather.

The regime will progress rapidly eastward today. The trough will
help prod surface low development over the northern gulf, with the
low then heading northeast tonight as the trough approaches us
from the west. Our atmosphere will moisten as overrunning moisture
heads north and as lift occurs ahead of the trough. There is
general model agreement for precip developing northeast into our
area this evening, persisting overnight, and then winding down
from WNW to ESE on Tuesday morning. The main model differences
consist of precip amounts and temperatures aloft during the event.

The differences in precip amounts are mainly near/north of I-64,
with the GFS being heavier than the NAM or ECMWF. A blended
solution dampens out the heavier GFS, with a forecast amount
closer to the lighter end. For temperatures aloft and precip type,
the main area of concern is our northern counties. The NAM has
some warmer air aloft in the 800-850mb range as compared to the
GFS or ECMWF. Although the NAM is the warmest of the three, it
also has the highest resolution and is sometimes better able to
discern smaller features and it`s not going to be discounted. The
forecast is based off of a blend, but the temperature differences
aloft do knock down confidence in the precip type (FZRA vs. SN in
our northern counties). There is decent model agreement on
surface temperatures, albeit a rather broad and subtle transition
between above and below freezing readings. With small changes up
or down affecting the ability for snow/ice to accumulate, this
also cuts into forecast confidence. All that said, the most likely
area for impacts is from around Mount Sterling to West Liberty
northward, and those counties were placed in an advisory.

What`s left of precip will wind down mainly on Tuesday morning as
the upper trough axis passes and the surface low departs
northeast along the coast. However, clouds will linger in the cold
air advection and upslope flow. The combination will mean only a
minimal rise in daytime temperatures, with readings likely
remaining in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025

Tuesday evening opens with cloudy conditions which are expected to
slowly improving through the night as surface high pressure builds
into the area for Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night bottom out in the
lower 20s, with upper 20s across far Eastern Kentucky, such as Pike
and Floyd counties.

High pressure keeps Eastern Kentucky dry Wednesday and Thursday,
with temperatures rising into the upper 30s to low 40s each day.
Increasing clouds are expected through Wednesday night, but not
before valley locations decouple and drop into the low to mid 20s.
Ridge-tops may stay elevated in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
increase from nearby systems both north and south of the area,
although dry conditions are still expected through Thursday.

The next system with potential to cause active weather for the area
stems from a short wave trough in the Gulf States. While this is
going on a northern stream of energy transiting southeastern Canada
is also taking place. A baroclinic zone will develop from the lower
Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee Valley.

With the time of year, strength and timing of storms deeply matters
in regard to precip-type. At current, deeper moisture and warmth
will be slung toward eastern Kentucky Friday into Saturday, with
precipitation chances remaining around the 60-70% range. Most will
fall as rain, with the exception of the early morning on Friday,
where enough cold air might be in place for light snow. Another low
end precip chance remains for later in the weekend, Sunday, with
another passing cold front. Precip chances for that storm remains in
the 20-35% range. With uncertainty increasing beyond Thursday,
ensemble temperature spread increases, and the plausible range of
temperatures expands to a 10 degree range Friday and beyond,
although the median temperature is generally in the low to mid 40s
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025

MVFR ceilings continue north of the Mountain Parkway, and as of
1730z were slowly rising and beginning to show initial signs of
trying to scatter out over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile,
VFR conditions under clear or fair skies were occurring. Clouds
and precipitation are forecast to overtake the area from the south
and west between 01z and 06z, with conditions deteriorating to
generally IFR or worse. The precipitation is expected to be rain
for most of the forecast area tonight, except for a wintery mix
north of the Mountain Parkway. Conditions will improve from
northwest to southeast toward the end of the period, but models
differ on the timing of the end of precipitation as well as how
quickly conditions improve.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC