125
FXUS63 KJKL 020955
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
455 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain will gradually taper to a few showers this morning.
  A stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out this afternoon,
  mainly in the Cumberland River Basin.

- Clearing skies tonight will set the stage for extensive fog,
  especially in the river valleys. Lows will fall into the lower
  30s in the coldest valleys.

- Dry and fair weather is expected Monday through Thursday, with
  a warming trend bringing highs into the mid-60s to around 70 by
  Wednesday.

- The next rain chances will return on Friday and persist into
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 409 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025

Radar shows intermittent light rain falling across most of
eastern Kentucky early this morning. Temperatures range in the low
to mid 40s. This cool and damp weather is courtesy of a weak,
approximately 549 dam upper low dropping southeast from the mid-
Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. An associated cold
front exists ahead of the low, extending from Lake Erie southward
along the spine of the Central and Southern Appalachians. Surface
high pressure is in place upstream over the Central/Southern
Plains, southeast of a 500 hPa ridge axis extending from the
Southern Colorado River Basin northeast to the Upper Great Lakes.

The 500 hPa low will drift southeast today and tonight and off
the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday, abandoning its associated cold
front over the Central and Southern Appalachians. (There could be
just enough instability for a rumble of thunder near the Tennessee
border this afternoon.) In the wake of the low, heights will rise
aloft while high pressure builds east of the Mississippi River. A
subtle disturbance passing through the ridge aloft will support a
dry secondary cold front dropping to near the Ohio River Monday
evening.

In sensible terms, look for showers/light rain to gradually wane
this morning, becoming more confined to the Cumberland River Basin
this afternoon, where a stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled
out. It will become partly sunny and seasonably cool with highs
ranging from the mid-50s west to low 60s east. For tonight,
clearing skies will set the stage for extensive fog, especially in
the river valleys. It will be cool with lows in the lower 30s,
coldest valleys, to lower 40s, thermal belt ridges. For Monday,
it will be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025

The long-term period opens Monday evening with a broad 500 hPa
ridge over the Central CONUS (axis extending from Texas northward
over the Plains) and a broad surface high pressure over the Lower
and Middle Mississippi Valley. A subtle moisture-starved cold
front, supported by a weak perturbation aloft riding down the
eastern slope of the ridge, will be dropping south of the Ohio
River.

The cold front oozes into the Commonwealth Monday night and
dissipates. Meanwhile, the upper-level ridge gradually shifts east
and flattens on Tuesday, making way for a trough diving into the
northeastern US. A surface low associated with this system stays
well to our north along with any associated precipitation.
However, it will send another weakening, moisture-starved cold
front through our area, most likely on Wednesday night or early
Thursday. The progressive pattern continues Thursday and Thursday
night with another low-amplitude ridge and its surface reflection
passing through our region. By Friday and Saturday, model
guidance spread increases, but one or more troughs with associated
frontal systems are possible with good moisture return (PWATs
nearing or exceeding 1.0 inch).

In sensible terms, dry and fair weather can be expected through
Thursday. A mid-week warming trend should yield afternoon highs
back in the mid-60s to around 70 by Wednesday, dropping back into
the mid-60s for the remainder of the week. Nighttime lows start
mainly in the 30s to around 40 but moderate into the 40s. The
next rain chances return Friday and persist into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025

VFR to IFR was occurring at issuance time as areas of light rain
continue. The steadiest rain and worst conditions are west of I-75
closer to an upper level low dropping into the Tennessee Valley.
This system will push an associated cold front through the region
early this morning. The steadiest rain will occur through 12z
before diminishing, with an associated improvement in ceilings and
visibility during the daylight hours. Winds will generally be 5KT
or less through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON