323
FXUS63 KJKL 042333
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
633 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry precipitation, primarily snow, is expected from late
  this evening into Friday morning.

- Some accumulation and travel impacts are becoming more probable
  for portions of southeast KY near and south of the Mtn Pkwy
  where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. Though lower
  confidence, it is possible a dusting of snow may reach as far
  north as Interstate 64.

- The pattern remains active through the end of the forecast
  period, although confidence remains low in each passing system`s
  precipitation type and accumulation forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

Made minor updates to the forecast through Friday afternoon,
mostly pertaining to the developing winter system moving across
the area tonight into Friday morning. Overall, the forecast has
changed very little except to add some minor accumulations up to
Interstate 64 for tonight.

With the updated forecast, the decision was made to expand the
Special Weather Statement for a dusting to 1 inch of snow up to
Interstate 64. The thinking was with antecedent cold temperatures
in place that even very minor accumulations on any untreated travel
surfaces could cause some issues, so opted to be extremely
(perhaps overly) proactive in this case.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 445 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

Late this afternoon, a broad trough extended from eastern Canada
into central and eastern portions of the Conus downstream of an
upper level ridge in the Pacific. A couple of shortwaves were
moving through this trough, one was over the Plains and nearing
the Ozarks to Arklatex areas with another extending from western
Ontario into the Dakotas. Additional shortwave in northwest flow
aloft were moving across the Canadian Rockies vicinity and the
Northwest Conus. At the surface, the cold front that crossed the
region earlier today has moved into VA and TN with sfc high
pressure centered near Lake MI. Further south an area of low
pressure was moving across the northwest to northern sections of
the Gulf. Low clouds have been persistent across eastern KY today
with and following the passage of a cold front. Temperatures have
moved little and were generally in the low to mid 30s with some
upper 30s in the valleys nearer to the TN border at 4 PM EST.

This evening and tonight, the shortwave currently in the Plains
and nearing the Ozarks to Arklatex region should enter the mid MS
Valley and near the OH and TN Valleys this evening, crossing
eastern KY through early Friday morning. An additional shortwave
trough should cross eastern KY later on Friday with the region
under the influence of west southwest to westerly flow aloft
tonight through Friday. At the same time, the sfc low near the
Gulf should track into northwest FL and across the southeast
states on Friday as the front the crossed the area earlier nears
the eastern seaboard and the guidance guidance has an inverted sfc
trough developing into the Southern to Central Appalachians region
as the shortwave approaches from the west. Moisture will increase
through the column through the evening and upstream activity
already in the middle TN area in the Nashville vicinity should
spread and perhaps increase as it moves to the TN plateau and
toward the TN and VA border counties and Lake Cumberland region as
the evening progresses. Current guidance suggests that snow
should overspread the southern portions of eastern KY during the 8
PM to midnight EST Friday timeframe and bring a few hour period
of primarily snow before the precipitation begins to taper off
from west to east near dawn in the more northern and western
locations and early on Friday morning elsewhere. As the
precipitation tapers off an some moisture lingers but omega
decreases it could mix with rain or freezing rain in some locales.
However, little or no ice accumulations are anticipated.

A relatively warm column near or not far from 0C in the lowest
few thousand feet should be a bit of a limiting factor as far as
snow to liquid ratios in the more southern locations such as
deeper valley locations in Bell and Harlan Counties though there
may be a max in omega near or within the DGZ. Overall this
snowfall should be on the wetter side. The snow should reach as
far north as near the Mtn Parkway or slightly to the south though
there remains some run to run variability with this, a rather
sharp cutoff may occur from amounts of a dusting to a half of an
inch to near an inch within 10 to 20 miles to the south. At
present, this cutoff is expected to extend from Estill County to
near Natural Bridge/Slade to around West Liberty to southern
Elliott County which is generally the consensus of guidance. A
winter weather advisory was issued earlier in the afternoon for
counties with amounts expected to average around 1 inch or higher
or where probabilities in the 12Z HREF for at least 0.5 inches
were in at least 50 to 60 percent or higher with forecast totals
not far from 12Z HREF LPMM amounts. Much of the southeastern
counties should experience amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with a few
amounts around 3 inches possible near 2000 feet and above in Pike
to Letcher to Harlan counties. This event should affect the Friday
morning commute.

By midday Friday and into Friday night, drier air moves in behind
the tonight to Friday morning system at mid and high levels, but
low level moisture should persist. Thus, low clouds are expected
to generally persist as the secondary shortwave passes.
Temperatures should also rise above freezing by late Friday
morning into midday on Friday. Some spotty light precipitation
could occur near the VA border Friday night, but otherwise the
short term period should be drier.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

The forecast period commences with surface high pressure building
across the region in the wake of Fridays departing synoptic system.
Aloft, persistent upper-level southwesterly flow is anticipated,
which will sustain relatively mild temperatures for Saturday.
However, a pronounced temperature gradient is forecast to establish
itself over the area. Concurrently on Saturday, a perturbation
translating within a stalled upper-level trough positioned over the
Hudson Bay will advect a predominantly dry cold front southeastward
through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. Deterministic
model runs indicate this mostly dry frontal boundary will traverse
the CWA; yet, due to the limited moisture available, PoP are
forecast to be negligible. Subsequently, an approaching shortwave
trough and an associated surface low-pressure feature moving out of
the Rockies will track eastward along this established zone of
baroclinicity.

This secondary, more moisture-rich system is expected to yield
higher precipitation probabilities, with a mixture of rain and snow
beginning early Sunday morning and enduring through late Monday
morning. The specific precipitation type will be critically
temperature-driven; daytime thermal profiles are generally
supportive of rain, whereas overnight temperatures will favor a
wintry mix or snow.Model confidence remains low concerning the
precise thermal profiles and the exact track of the low-pressure
center. Consequently, there is limited confidence in current
deterministic snowfall totals. Following the departure of this
system, surface high pressure is expected to rebuild across the area
for Tuesday. However, model trends suggest yet another system will
approach the region by the end of the forecast period, potentially
bringing another round of rain, wintry precipitation, and the risk
of stronger winds, particularly on Wednesday.

The entire period is characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances
traversing the area, introducing a variety of precipitation types
punctuated by transient interludes of high pressure. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are generally expected to remain below
average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions are occurring at TAF issuance, with
conditions expected to deteriorate further through 06z as snow
develops across areas primarily south of Interstate 64. Snow
should continue spreading east through 09Z and and then begin to
taper off from the west thereafter. A brief mix with freezing rain
or rain may occur before the precipitation tapers off late
tonight and early Friday. Reduced ceilings of MVFR north and IFR
or lower south should linger through the TAF period even as the
precipitation tapers by the 12Z to 18Z timeframe. Winds will
generally be light and variable throughout the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for KYZ068-069-079-
080-083>086-107-109-112-114-116.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ087-088-
110-113-115-117>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC