363
FXUS63 KJKL 092114
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
414 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake Wind Advisories have been issued for the Cave Run Lake and
  Cumberland Lake areas.

- Gusty southwesterly winds between 30 and 40 mph are likely on
  Wednesday.

- Snow showers are expected to produce spatially variable
  accumulations and localized travel impacts on Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning.

- A clipper system is expected to produce more widespread winter
  precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning.

- A much colder than normal airmass is forecast to move into the
  region late next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 413 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Added a Lake Wind Advisory for the Cave Run Lake area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Current conditions show mid and high level clouds slowly clearing out
across Eastern Kentucky. Current temperatures around the area are in
the low to mid 40s, these are likely the highs for this afternoon.
Winds and cloud cover are expected to both increase ahead of the
next system this evening. With elevated winds and increased cloud
cover, temperatures are not expected to decouple, and remain
elevated overnight. Low temperatures should remain in the mid to
upper 30s. A strong low level jet is expected to move across the
area later this evening and overnight. While winds will be
"screaming" a few hundred feet off the surface (50-60 kts), winds
from this boundary layer are not expected to mix down to the surface,
at least not for an extended period of time. BUFKIT Soundings
comparing multiple models across multiple locations indicated the
momentum transfer from this boundry-layer low-level jet wouldn`t be
sufficient enough to reach Wind Advisory conditions. Cross sections of
each model run showed perhaps better chances of this would be along
or right behind the cold frontal passage later Wednesday morning-
afternoon. Lots of collaboration occurred between JKL and neighboring
offices, however it was ultimately decided confidence was too low
earlier today and with the current guidance to issue any products
such as a Wind Advisory. That said, winds will still be gusty,
and later guidance may offer greater confidence on the above.

During the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, rain will begin to spread
across the areas from the northwest to southeast. Winds may be
strongest along the cold front as it passes through the area. Winds
will be out of the southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph,
approaching 40 mph in spots. Strongest winds should be near/west of
I-75 and near/north of I-64. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued
for Lake Cumberland through 6 PM Wednesday. After the front moves
through winds should slowly taper off. Temperatures are expected to
peak in the mid 40s to near 50 through Wednesday afternoon. Winds
then become westerly and eventually northwesterly heading into the
evening. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop rapidly
through the afternoon. Towards sunset, and into the evening, rain
will mix with and eventually changeover to all snow. By this
point most snow showers should be across SE Kentucky. Some of the
more persistent snow showers may put down a quick skiff or coating
of snow across grassy or elevated surfaces. Only a few tenths of
snow is expected in those areas. Low temperatures eventually drop
into the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

The period begins Thursday morning with a deep trough over Eastern
Seaboard moving quickly out to sea, with cold advection snow showers
continuing to gradually wind down through the morning. Highs only
recover into the lower to mid 30s Thursday with surface high
pressure ridging moving through during the afternoon.

A warm front approaches from the southwest in advance of another
clipper system for Thursday evening into Friday. Though the column
will be warming as the system advances across the northeastern half
of the forecast area, precipitation will be overrunning a
sufficiently cold atmosphere for accumulating snow to fall, with the
highest accumulations and thus impacts expected along and north of
the Mountain Parkway, where most areas could see around 1 inch of
snow accumulation, with the low potential for 2 inches toward
northeastern Kentucky. Temperatures will be warming as the event
progresses, with surface temperatures warming quickly through the
30s especially as, and/or shortly after, precipitation ends from
southwest to northeast behind the warm front passage.

A milder air mass then persists across the region for Friday and
Saturday, with highs returning to the 40s. However, another clipper
system dives southeast across the area the second half of Saturday
into the first half of Sunday, with rain chances changing to snow
chances as temperatures fall quickly behind the front. This front
will be the leading edge of an arctic air mass, with some of the
coldest conditions of the winter possible Sunday night into Monday,
especially if good radiational cooling conditions can develop.

Model uncertainty increases to end the long-term period next Monday,
with the temperature forecast largely dependent on how quickly warm
advection becomes re-established along with associated clouds (and
perhaps precipitation chances) with the next clipper system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Mid and high level clouds are currently being observed across the
area. Winds will become southwest through the afternoon and
increase to between 5 and 15 kts with gusts of 15 to 25 kts. The
strongest winds will occur near/west of I-75 and near/north of
I-64. Winds aloft will begin to ramp up tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front. There`s also a Low Level Jet (LLJ) moving
across the area tonight, leading to the threat of LLWS for most
of tonight. Around 12Z a cold front is expected to move through
producing rain for most TAF sites between 13-18Z Wednesday. Winds
will remain out of the SW with gusts 20-25 kts, though the threat
of LLWS diminishes with the frontal passage.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for KYZ051-
052-060-079-080-083-084-106.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK