827
FXUS63 KJKL 290530 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1230 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light round of precip, mainly rain, is expected tonight into
  Sunday.

- A more significant precip event may come Monday night and
  Tuesday, with a little bit better potential for wintery precip.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 945 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025

02Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and
keep skies mostly clear. Currently, temperatures are running in
the low 20s in the sheltered valleys to near 30 degrees on the
ridges. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are
generally in the upper teens to lower 20s in the valleys and near
10 degrees on the ridges. Have updated the forecast mainly to add
in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 526 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025

There are no changes to the forecast. Temperatures will fall
rapidly into the 20s over the next few hours as winds decouple.
The latest hourly observations were included for the
initialization of the hourly temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 204 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025

Overall guidance is in decent agreement for the short term period.
High pressure will continue to settle across the Ohio Valley this
evening. This as an upper level wave pushes eastward. This will
provide a solid platform for radiational cooling under clear skies
and calm winds. Lows are set to drop into the teens in the valleys
and around 20 on the ridges. This will be closer to the 10th
percentile of the NBM.

The previously mentioned high pressure will quickly move east, as a
leeside low pressure quickly develops tonight and ejects into the
Midwest early in the day. This feature will eventually work itself
northeast toward the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front
approaching the Ohio Valley. Overall given the southeast flow at the
surface most will remain dry through the day. However, clouds will
increase with time mainly in the mid and upper levels through the
day. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 40s for most locations.

By Saturday evening, most of the lift will initially come from a
upper level jet streak that will move into the Midwest and mid-level
height falls from the shortwave. The initial precipitation will fall
as rain and/or snow before switching to all rain as column warms
under increasing southwest flow. Overall no impacts are expected
given marginal surface temperatures and light precipitation overall
(most locations less than a tenth of inch of liquid). However,
some light slushy accumulation can`t be complete ruled out along
and north if I-64. This will all melt as we warm and
precipitation changes to all rain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 147 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025

Rain to begin the period Sunday morning winds down and exits east
with a cold frontal passage during the daytime hours Sunday,
shutting down our short-lived warm-up and bringing a return of
dry conditions with surface high pressure. However, the dry
weather looks to be brief.

Another upper level wave will drop southeast over the western CONUS
during the weekend and then head east. It will prompt surface low
development which is expected to track across the Deep South Monday
night and then turn up the East Coast on Tuesday. The relatively
large system will throw moisture northward over our cooler air,
likely bringing another round of precip. With a southerly track, we
will remain in colder air and will have a higher threat of wintery
precip, especially in our northern counties. At this point it looks
like a nuisance type system, but at that time range, changes to the
outlook will probably occur.

Once it passes, dry weather looks to occur Wednesday and Thursday,
though 15 to 25 PoPs return by Thursday night with another potential
system, though overall model agreement on location, timing, and
strength of this potential wave, or waves, to end next week is
quite poor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025

VFR skies are found through the area under surface high pressure.
These benign conditions will continue through the period, though
look for some high and eventually mid-level CIGs to move in from
the west later this evening. Winds will be light and variable for
most of the period, though up to 10 knots from the southeast
during the day. Winds off the sfc late this evening will likely
result in some LLWS from the south at up to 45 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC/HAL
AVIATION...GREIF