801
FXUS63 KJKL 121106
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
606 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A substantial warming trend will last into the weekend, with
  above normal temperatures eventually arriving.

- The next possibility of precipitation (in the form of rain) is
  not until Friday or Friday night at the earliest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 550 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025

The period begins with a trough from Central and eastern Canada
into the Great Lakes and eastern Conus. At the surface, high
pressure is centered along the gulf coast coast while a sfc low is
tracking across Ontario with a moisture starved warm front
currently lift east across the Commonwealth now and the systems
cold front is also moisture starved especially this far south as
it extends into the mid MS Valley to Central Plains. With the
fronts approaching there has been a wide range of mixiness or lack
thereof overnight as some more sheltered valleys decoupled and
dropped off to near the freezing mark while many other areas were
in the mid to upper 30s if not lower 40s.

The surface low is Canada is expected to reach the St Lawrence
Valley vicinity this evening and then move across the Northeast
tonight. The warm front should cross eastern KY by midday to early
afternoon with the cold front crossing eastern KY later this
afternoon and evening. A ridge of sfc high pressure should build
into the Lower OH Valley and TN Valley from the mid MS Valley
behind the boundary for tonight. Overall, a gradual trend of
increasing heights at 500 mb should occur through the near term
period across the Commonwealth and OH Valley with the sfc ridge of
high pressure remaining over the area through the day on
Thursday. Ahead of the cold front tonight, temperatures will
moderate to within 5 degrees of normal. Winds should be gusty at
times as the front and daytime heating combine for some gusts
generally in the 20 to 25 mph range at times. Winds slacken
tonight under high pressure a moderate ridge valley temperature
split is anticipated. Highs should be similar on Thursday within
5 degrees of normal also.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 550 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025

The long term period is expected to begin with the axis of an
upper level trough extending from Hudson Bay into the NOrtheast
and east of the eastern seaboard while the axis of an upper level
ridge is progged to extend from the western Gulf into the Southern
Plains to the CO Rockies to MT and then Saskatchewan/Manitoba
border area. Further west, an upper level low and trough are
expected to be extend from BC to near the Pacific northwest to
west of the CA coast. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure is
expected to extend from the TN Valley/Southern Appalachians
vicinity to the western Great Lakes. Further south and west, the
boundary that will have crossed the area during the short term
period is expected to have begun to stall over the Gulf states,
while the western portion is expected to be lifting north and east
as a warm front across portions of the Central Conus/Plains as
sfc low pressure tracks across Alberta.

Thursday night to Friday night, the consensus of guidance is the
the axis of the upper level ridge centered in the Gulf should
shift east across the Central Conus and into the MS Valley and
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the northern portion of the upper trough
initially from BC to west of the west coast of the Conus closes
to an upper low the tracks across Alberta and Saskatchewan to
Manitoba with the associated shortwave trough moving near the
US/Canadian border reaches the Northern Plains and approaches the
Upper MS Valley. The southern portion of the trough that nears the
west coast of the Conus is progged to close off to an upper level
low that approaches Southern California on Friday night. At the
surface, the ridge of high pressure shifts north and northeast of
the area while a warm front is progged to lift into eastern KY
late Friday and Friday night as a sfc low in advance of the upper
low moving across Canada nears the Hudson Bay vicinity while that
systems cold front trails into the Central Plains to Southwest
Conus. Guidance continue to track a shortwave into the OH Valley
Friday. The passing shortwave and the nearing warm front will
bring a modest increase in moisture through the column to the
region with 00Z LREF mean PW climbing to around 0.75 to 0.9 inches
or roughly the 80the percentile by late Friday night. These
systems may result in sprinkles or isolated to scattered showers,
but at this time, the QPF forecast is very minimal at less than
0.05 inches for the more northern and eastern locations.
Temperatures will be mild enough for any precipitation with this
to be all rain.

Saturday to Sunday night, the axis of the upper level ridge is
progged to shift across the OH Valley on Saturday while the upper
low in Canada tracks into Ontario and then to the St Lawrence
Valley and Northeast. An associated shortwave should cross the
Great Lakes and Lower OH Valley Saturday into Saturday night with
the associated sfc low also reaching the St Lawrence Valley and
Northeast with an initial cold front crossing eastern KY on
Saturday night before a secondary front drops into the Central
Appalachians and OH Valley to end the weekend. Some rain showers
will again be possible mainly Saturday night and early Sunday with
these passing systems.

Monday and Tuesday, uncertainty increases with the upper pattern
particularly individual shortwaves moving through the flow as
broad troughing is expected to extend from eastern Canada into
the Northeast and mid Atlantic early Monday while a shortwave
ridge should move into the Central Conus. Further west, a trough
should be over the western Conus with the upper low that will have
approached and moved into CA and the southwest Conus to begin the
weekend may reach the Plains by early Monday. Again timing and
strength of these systems as well as position is lower than
average due to considerable range in guidance. The pattern
generally favors the frontal zone that may reach the area by late
Sunday night stationary in the Southern Appalachians to TN and OH
Valleys vicinity. Eventually, one more shortwaves moving from the
Southwest Conus and across the Central Conus may approach the area
and interact with this boundary for more focused rainfall though
this could be after the end of the period. With the boundary in
the vicinity, showers will remain possible, particularly once the
axis of any shortwave ridging moves east of eastern KY. Also with
spread of guidance, there is quite a bit of spread in the
temperature forecasts between the 10th and 90th percentiles. The
NBM pops and temperatures were a reasonable compromise among the
guidance as were the temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025

VFR conditions will hold through the period. Low level wind shear
will be a concern for air traffic into the morning, on account of
west southwest winds a little off the surface at between 45 and
55 kts, for a time. Surface winds will generally be around or less
than 10 kts (though still some occasional gusts to 20 kts able to
mix down) into the morning and pick up again from the west to
southwest at 10 kts or so with higher gusts to near 20 kts during
the afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF