405
FXUS63 KJKL 132330
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
630 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Saturday, with
  highs near 70 degrees.

- Gusty southwesterly winds on Saturday could impact outdoor activities
  and blow around any outdoor decorations/tents.

- Measurable rain chances reenter the forecast ahead of a cold front
  on Saturday night, with little to no chance of thunder.

- There remains a great deal of forecast uncertainty early next
  week, but the pattern is expected to stay active.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 218 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025

Quiet weather continues in the short term, as high pressure slowly
build into the area from the west. High clouds currently stream over
the state, under mostly sunny skies while afternoon temperatures
have already reached the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will remain
light and out of the west to northwest through sunset. This is due
to an exiting low in the Great Lakes region. After sunset, winds
become light and variable and continue through the overnight. Lows
will range from the lower 30s in the valleys to upper 30s along
ridge tops. Some of the coldest sheltered valleys across Eastern
Kentucky may dip into the upper 20s.

Friday, an upper level low all the way over in the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba area of  Canada will have a warm front
extending southeast across the Ohio and Mid-Mississipppi Valleys.
This warm front will move across Eastern Kentucky during the day
leading to a mix of sun and clouds, and perhaps sprinkles or an
isolated shower across portions of the area. Temperatures will be
warm in the mid to upper 60s, under southwest winds. This warm front
will help bring warm moist air to the region. Sky cover increases
overnight along with the shower chances. Lows will generally remain
in the low 50s, with a few colder spots across the VA/KY boarder
seeing the upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 620 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

While confidence is high that the beginning of the long term
forecast period will be marked by much warmer than normal
temperatures, the temperature forecast towards the end of the end of
the forecast period remains shrouded in uncertainty. Model guidance
generally agrees that the synoptic weather pattern will remain
active for the duration of the long term forecast period, with
multiple frontal passages and multiple rounds of rain likely.
However, the individual members of the currently available guidance
suite continue to resolve the amplitude and timing of the finer-
scale disturbances responsible for this active weather quite
differently. This corresponds with a sizable increase in model
spread early next week, with upwards of 15 degrees difference
between the 25th and 75th quartiles of MaxT/MinT guidance for
Tuesday and beyond. Given this uncertainty, the baseline NBM data
was retained for the majority of the long term forecast grids, with
a few key exceptions.

The first deviation from NBM guidance comes at the very beginning of
the forecast period, when the forecast area will be positioned in
between a broad surface high over the SE CONUS and a strong Canadian
low pressure system. A tightening pressure gradient will allow
persistent southwesterly surface flow to strengthen throughout the
day on Saturday, and the NBM is known to under-do winds and gusts in
these southwesterly return flow set-ups. As such, and in
coordination with neighboring NWS offices, Saturday`s forecast winds
and wind gusts were nudged upwards. Sustained winds are forecast to
range from 10 mph in sheltered valleys to 25 mph in the more exposed
portions of the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. Gusts could
approach the 30 to 40 mph range on Saturday afternoon if efficient
mixing is realized. BUFKIT momentum transfer forecast model
soundings from around the forecast area depict wind gusts in this
range, as do the means of the GEFS and EPS ensembles.
Probabilistically speaking, the EPS resolves a greater than 90%
chance of wind gusts in excess of 25 mph on Saturday afternoon and a
60-80% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph. However, there are a few
limiting factors in place, such as lingering morning cloud coverage
and a stout temperature inversion aloft in the column. The
antecedent AM clouds could result in shallower mixing depths than
what is currently depicted in NAM and GFS momentum transfer
soundings. This would decrease the magnitude of the wind gusts
realized at the surface, and it is plausible that the stronger wind
gusts remain elevated on Saturday afternoon. Nevertheless, interests
should still plan for potential impacts from gusty winds in excess
of 25 mph to outdoor events, tents, and holiday decorations on
Saturday.

Regardless of exact wind speeds, the persistence of that
southwesterly low-level flow will allow temperatures to warm to near
or just above 70 degrees on Saturday afternoon. This is 10 to 15
degrees warmer than climatological averages for mid-November in
Eastern Kentucky. The widespread cloud cover on Saturday could
mitigate diurnal warming and keep temperatures below the 70 degree
mark, but efficient low level WAA should be able to overcome this.
Rain chances increase ahead of an approaching cold front on Saturday
evening, and the timing of that front does not currently align well
with diurnal warming. Modeled instability is scant on Saturday
night, but frontal forcing and marginally supportive kinematics
aloft could combine to produce a few locally strong wind gusts in
any organized pre-frontal rain showers. The Storm Prediction Center
agrees that severe weather is unlikely in the Commonwealth on
Saturday; they removed Eastern Kentucky from both the Marginal
Severe and General Thunder categories in their afternoon update to
the Day 3 Outlook. The moisture return from this SW flow also
appears marginal, with LREF Ensemble Mean PWATs peaking around 1
inch immediately ahead of the boundary. This is largely due to the
fact that the flow aloft on Saturday will remain more west-
northwesterly and advect a modified continental airmass into much of
the column. Thus, any activity on Saturday night looks to come in
the form of generic light rain showers.

Light rain chances will continue into Sunday morning as FROPA
occurs. Confidence in the timing of this first system has increased
relative to this time yesterday, giving credence to the idea that
Sunday`s sensible weather forecast will be dominated by a clearing
and cooling trend. Surface winds will shift to the west-northwest
behind the frontal passage, and paired with the persistence of NW
flow aloft, they will advect a drier continental airmass into the
region. This means that temperatures will be noticeably cooler by
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Forecast MaxTs (mid 50s to low
60s)are 10 to 15 degrees lower than the day prior, and Sunday night
looks to feature ridge-valley temperature splits. These terrain-
induced temperature differences are the second key deviation from
the baseline NBM guidance in the long term forecast period.
Temperatures are forecast to cool off into the 30s area-wide on
Sunday night, but the deeper and more sheltered valleys are poised
to dip below freezing. During the daytime hours on Monday, a passing
surface high pressure system will keep conditions mostly clear and
seasonably cool. Overnight ridge-valley splits are possible once
again headed into Tuesday, but this is the time frame in which
confidence in forecast details falls off.

Early next week, the parent upper-level synoptic features
responsible for the weekend activity are forecast to propagate east
and deamplify. This will place Kentucky within a regime of quasi-
zonal flow aloft for much of the next work week, and guidance points
towards a baroclinic zone setting up by Tuesday morning. As
shortwave impulses navigate through this flow aloft and their
surface frontal reflections approach the region, additional
precipitation chances enter the forecast. The first of these
boundaries, a warm front, is expected to approach the area on Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Cloud cover is forecast to spread into
the region overnight, arriving in Northeastern KY last. Before skies
cloud up, the sheltered valleys in the Big Sandy Basin may be able
to decouple, which would result in forecast lows dropping below
baseline NBM temperature guidance. If that came to fruition,
localized pockets of freezing rain cannot be ruled out on Tuesday
morning. The probability of this occurring is rather low at this
moment in time, but Monday afternoon dewpoints in the 20s/near 30
and Coop MOS guidance suggest that this potential will need to be
monitored as timing details become clearer. Because there is 6-7
degrees of standard deviation in the forecast temperature guidance
for early next week, this was not mentioned in the forecast grids.
Likewise, the thunderstorm chances in the baseline deterministic NBM
data on Monday night were removed, as atmospheric profiles look
stable and cool. These weather grid changes are the third key
deviation from the deterministic NBM in the long-term forecast
package, albeit with much lower confidence than the first two.

Regular rain chances remain in the forecast for the daytime hours on
Tuesday, as temperatures should quickly warm up into the 40s and 50s
via post-frontal southerly/southwesterly winds and warm air
advection. Guidance has trended towards shortwave ridging and thus
decreasing rain chances on Wednesday, but another system looks to
approach the area late in the week. Once again, that system is
shrouded in uncertainty, and confidence in forecast details is
degraded at this temporal range. In general, expect an active
weather pattern to continue into next week, with near-normal
temperatures. Interests should continue to monitor for forecast
updates as guidance moves closer to a consensus, model spread
decreases, and then confidence subsequently increases.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025

Surface high pressure will keep VFR conditions overhead through
the period. Along with mostly clear skies, light and variable
winds are forecast through the period. However, an approaching
weak disturbance is expected to bring increasing and lowering CIGS
for the end of the TAF window. No reduction in category is
expected.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST