801
FXUS63 KJKL 162203
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
603 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost is possible in the coldest northeastern hollows
  late tonight and early Friday morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms arrive late Saturday evening lasting
  through Sunday.

- Sunday wind gusts of 30 mph or greater are likely, with the
  probability of 40+ mph remaining at a 10 to 30 percent chance.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025

Refreshed near term grids with the past few hours of observations
around the area, then extrapolated out over the next few hours.
No significant changes were made. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025

Bright sun and seasonable temperatures in the middle 60s to low
70s are present across eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Dry air
continues to seep into eastern Kentucky on light northeasterly
flow wrapping around a ~1024 mb surface high over Upper Michigan.
This dry air is evident in the dew point gradient, which ranges
from the upper 30s and low 40s northeast of KY-15 to the low and
middle 50s near Lake Cumberland. The high pressure is centered
under the favored zone of subsidence east of a 500 hPa ridge axis
stretching from the Mississippi Delta to northwestern Ontario.

The 500 hPa ridge will tilt positively as it propagates eastward,
stretching from the Southeast U.S. to eastern Quebec by 12Z
Saturday, while a trough of North Pacific origin digs into the
Plains. As a result, the high pressure will slowly depart tonight
and Friday, and winds will veer southerly ahead of the incoming
trough and an associated cold front. With light winds and clear
skies in place, some patchy frost cannot be ruled out tonight in
those coolest hollows that experience the greatest drying and
lowest dew points (generally northeast of KY-15). Nocturnal
radiational fog formation is probable in the valleys of mainstem
rivers and larger tributaries, as is typical for this time of
year. Mid-and high-level clouds associated with warm air
advection (WAA) will develop in the southerly flow on Friday and
Friday night, but any low-level moisture return will be limited
until late in the period.

In terms of sensible weather, temperatures will drop quickly this
evening under fair skies. Widespread lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s are expected. However, a few of the coldest
northeastern hollows could dip into the mid 30s, with light
patchy frost possible around sunrise on Friday. Fog can also be
expected in valleys along mainstem rivers, larger creeks, and
lakes. Sunny skies on Friday morning will give way to increasing
high clouds. It will be slightly warmer, with high temperatures in
the 70 to 75 degree range for most. Clouds will persist for much
of the following night, with lows expected to range from the
mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025

Saturday, as a ridge departs the area, a stout trough approaches
from the west. This trough will feature a surface low over the Upper
Great Lakes region, with a cold front extending south through the
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this cold front on Saturday morning, a
subtle frontal boundary will pass through Central and Eastern
Kentucky. Some short term CAMS such as the HRRR have hinted there
could be a line of showers that move through the area. However,
looking at some model soundings, moisture appears to be best in the
mid-levels, with a layer of dry air at the surface. This will likely
result in virga rather than measureable rain. During the day, WAA
from southwesterly winds will drive up temperatures into the low to
mid 80s. Wind speeds generally 10-15 mph with gusts as high as 20
mph. Clouds will increase through the late afternoon through the
evening with the incoming system. Showers and thunderstorms will
work their way into the area late Saturday evening through Sunday.
As mentioned in previous discussions, dynamics have become more
favorable to support some thunderstorm chances. Temperatures
Saturday night drop into the upper 50s to near 60.

Showers and storms continue overnight and through Sunday. Models
continue to trend downward with rainfall amounts, with the Bluegrass
area as well as the I-75 corridor still in line for the greatest
amounts (around 0.75 inches). Rainfall amounts further east taper
off to around 0.40-0.50 inches, due to likely rain shadowing
effects. A strong jet remains aloft, and the likelihood of wind
gusts over 30 mph are increasing. Looking at a NAM cross section at
Jackson, the presence of vertical isobars up to around 700mb with a
50 kt wind up at that level confirms this thinking. There should be
good momentum transfer down to the ground, given nearly vertical
theta-e surfaces. The LREF continues to show a 10-30% chance of
seeing gusts at the surface of 40 mph or greater. Have collaborated
with neighboring offices to use the 90th percentile of the NBM for
winds and wind gusts. Aside from there being rain and wind on
Sunday, temperatures will remain in the upper 60s, with some
portions of far eastern Kentucky seeing low 70s. Skies clear Sunday
night, under lighter winds, resulting in valley fog, and ridge-
valley splits in temperatures. Valleys can anticipate lows in the
upper 30s, while ridge tops cool into the low 40s.

Monday, high pressure builds into the region, lasting through early
Tuesday morning. An upper level low over the Upper Great Lakes will
cary with it a tight pressure gradient through the Ohio an Mid-
Mississippi Valleys. Aside from some shower chances Tuesday from a
warm front passing through during the day, winds may be breezy. High
pressure is expected to return to the area for Wednesday. Highs will
generally remain in the 60s through Thursday next week, with lows in
the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025

High pressure will dominate through the period. VFR conditions
are prevailing across the entire area at TAF issuance and are
expected to continue through 18Z Friday, with exception of some
fog overnight in the sheltered river valleys. Light, variable to
northeast winds at under 10 kts will continue this afternoon
before slackening after 00Z Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON