


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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801 FXUS63 KJKL 162203 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 603 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy frost is possible in the coldest northeastern hollows late tonight and early Friday morning. - Showers and thunderstorms arrive late Saturday evening lasting through Sunday. - Sunday wind gusts of 30 mph or greater are likely, with the probability of 40+ mph remaining at a 10 to 30 percent chance. && .UPDATE... Issued at 602 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025 Refreshed near term grids with the past few hours of observations around the area, then extrapolated out over the next few hours. No significant changes were made. Forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025 Bright sun and seasonable temperatures in the middle 60s to low 70s are present across eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Dry air continues to seep into eastern Kentucky on light northeasterly flow wrapping around a ~1024 mb surface high over Upper Michigan. This dry air is evident in the dew point gradient, which ranges from the upper 30s and low 40s northeast of KY-15 to the low and middle 50s near Lake Cumberland. The high pressure is centered under the favored zone of subsidence east of a 500 hPa ridge axis stretching from the Mississippi Delta to northwestern Ontario. The 500 hPa ridge will tilt positively as it propagates eastward, stretching from the Southeast U.S. to eastern Quebec by 12Z Saturday, while a trough of North Pacific origin digs into the Plains. As a result, the high pressure will slowly depart tonight and Friday, and winds will veer southerly ahead of the incoming trough and an associated cold front. With light winds and clear skies in place, some patchy frost cannot be ruled out tonight in those coolest hollows that experience the greatest drying and lowest dew points (generally northeast of KY-15). Nocturnal radiational fog formation is probable in the valleys of mainstem rivers and larger tributaries, as is typical for this time of year. Mid-and high-level clouds associated with warm air advection (WAA) will develop in the southerly flow on Friday and Friday night, but any low-level moisture return will be limited until late in the period. In terms of sensible weather, temperatures will drop quickly this evening under fair skies. Widespread lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s are expected. However, a few of the coldest northeastern hollows could dip into the mid 30s, with light patchy frost possible around sunrise on Friday. Fog can also be expected in valleys along mainstem rivers, larger creeks, and lakes. Sunny skies on Friday morning will give way to increasing high clouds. It will be slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the 70 to 75 degree range for most. Clouds will persist for much of the following night, with lows expected to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 412 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025 Saturday, as a ridge departs the area, a stout trough approaches from the west. This trough will feature a surface low over the Upper Great Lakes region, with a cold front extending south through the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this cold front on Saturday morning, a subtle frontal boundary will pass through Central and Eastern Kentucky. Some short term CAMS such as the HRRR have hinted there could be a line of showers that move through the area. However, looking at some model soundings, moisture appears to be best in the mid-levels, with a layer of dry air at the surface. This will likely result in virga rather than measureable rain. During the day, WAA from southwesterly winds will drive up temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Wind speeds generally 10-15 mph with gusts as high as 20 mph. Clouds will increase through the late afternoon through the evening with the incoming system. Showers and thunderstorms will work their way into the area late Saturday evening through Sunday. As mentioned in previous discussions, dynamics have become more favorable to support some thunderstorm chances. Temperatures Saturday night drop into the upper 50s to near 60. Showers and storms continue overnight and through Sunday. Models continue to trend downward with rainfall amounts, with the Bluegrass area as well as the I-75 corridor still in line for the greatest amounts (around 0.75 inches). Rainfall amounts further east taper off to around 0.40-0.50 inches, due to likely rain shadowing effects. A strong jet remains aloft, and the likelihood of wind gusts over 30 mph are increasing. Looking at a NAM cross section at Jackson, the presence of vertical isobars up to around 700mb with a 50 kt wind up at that level confirms this thinking. There should be good momentum transfer down to the ground, given nearly vertical theta-e surfaces. The LREF continues to show a 10-30% chance of seeing gusts at the surface of 40 mph or greater. Have collaborated with neighboring offices to use the 90th percentile of the NBM for winds and wind gusts. Aside from there being rain and wind on Sunday, temperatures will remain in the upper 60s, with some portions of far eastern Kentucky seeing low 70s. Skies clear Sunday night, under lighter winds, resulting in valley fog, and ridge- valley splits in temperatures. Valleys can anticipate lows in the upper 30s, while ridge tops cool into the low 40s. Monday, high pressure builds into the region, lasting through early Tuesday morning. An upper level low over the Upper Great Lakes will cary with it a tight pressure gradient through the Ohio an Mid- Mississippi Valleys. Aside from some shower chances Tuesday from a warm front passing through during the day, winds may be breezy. High pressure is expected to return to the area for Wednesday. Highs will generally remain in the 60s through Thursday next week, with lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025 High pressure will dominate through the period. VFR conditions are prevailing across the entire area at TAF issuance and are expected to continue through 18Z Friday, with exception of some fog overnight in the sheltered river valleys. Light, variable to northeast winds at under 10 kts will continue this afternoon before slackening after 00Z Friday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...GEERTSON