405
FXUS63 KJKL 110500 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1200 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers will produce spatially variable accumulations and
  localized travel impacts into Thursday morning. The greatest
  snowfall accumulation and impact will be above 1,500 feet where
  Winter Weather Advisories are currently in effect.

- A clipper system is on track to produce more widespread winter
  precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning. An
  additional Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for this over
  northeast Kentucky.

- A much colder than normal airmass moves into the region for
  this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

Snow showers and squalls continue to move through eastern Kentucky
late this evening but the intensity is expected to start winding
down after midnight. Area web cams and the Jackson weather office
parking lot indicate that the heaviest showers are capable of
briefly coating the road surfaces but melt within 10 minutes.
Expect some of this to stick better later in the night as CAA
continues. Otherwise, updated the forecast with inclusion of the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with PoPs from
the CAMs and current radar images. These adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
zones, SPSs, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 705 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows cyclonic flow through eastern Kentucky -
much of this coming off the open Great Lakes. As a result, there
will be ample moisture for scattered snow showers through the rest
of the evening and into the overnight hours. The tight pressure
gradient from strong low pressure to the northeast of the area
will keep winds brisk from the northwest through the evening while
bringing in a colder air mass - as well as gusts to 30 mph. An
SPS has been issued for this concern, outside of the current
southeast Winter Weather Advisories, with more scattered activity
and lesser wintry impacts anticipated. Currently, temperatures
are running in the mid 30s west to the low 40s in the southeast.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 30s. Have
updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also touch up the PoPs into and
through the night per the current radar and CAMs guidance. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs. In addition, the 00Z guidance
will be examined for possible adjustments to the forecast with
that next inbound snow system - due here Thursday evening into
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

At current, a band of stratiform rain is moving across the area from
the northwest, southeast towards the VA state line. Light to
moderate rain is falling with this band and temperatures ahead of
this rain remain in the upper 40s to near 50, while temperatures
across southern Indiana, Ohio, and Northern Kentucky have already
fallen into the upper 30s to low 40s. This cold front will continue
to drop temperatures through this afternoon and evening, leading to
Low temperatures in the upper 20s by Thursday morning.

Over the next several hours, behind this band of rain, conditions
will have to be carefully monitored for snow squall potential,
starting around 9 PM through the pre-dawn hours Thursday.
Conditions look at least plausible for snow bands to form, as winds
become more northwesterly later this evening. Upslope snows are
favored in this flow regime, along with lake-enhanced snows from
Lake Michigan.

The Snow Squall Parameter takes into account moisture in the lowest
2 kilometers, instability, by measuring the decrease in equivalent
potential temperature (theta-e), and wind speed in the lowest 2
kilometers. A value of 1 or greater is said to indicate favorable
conditions for snow squalls to exist.

Looking at multiple short term CAM models such as the RAP13, the
HRRR, and the NAM12, each model have a Snow Squall Parameter of
greater than 1 across  parts of the CWA, mainly east of a line
extending from Lexington to London. In general, snow amounts should
remain under an inch anywhere outside the current advisory areas.
For within the winter weather advisories, under an inch in valleys,
with up to 1 inch at elevations above 1,500 feet. For Letcher and
Harlan counties, up to 2 inches are forecast, with localized 2-4
inch accumulations at elevations above 2,000 feet on and adjacent to
Big Black Mountain. If a snow squall were to develop, areas within
the squall could expect breif but intense snowfall causing near zero
visibility and high snow fall rates leading to quick accumulations.

Thursday, flurries may linger through the morning as the Wednesday
system departs the area. Skies remain overcast with westerly winds
generally under 10 mph. Temperatures will generally remain in the
30s through the day, with the next system quickly approaching
Thursday evening through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

At the onset of the forecasting period, an Alberta Clipper will have
ejected out of the midwest and traverse through the Ohio River
Valley by Thursday evening. Latest model and ensembles have brought
the 540-dm line further south, leading to an increase in snow
potential across northern counties in the CWA.

At current, most areas will start out as snow, before a warm front
pushes north and east across Eastern Kentucky overnight. By mid-
morning Friday, snow could transition back over to a rain-snow mix
or all rain; with the transition occurring earliest across the
southwest. Providing exact accumulation values for the northern CWA
is premature; however, the current forecast supports the potential
need for Winter Weather Advisories from Thursday night through
Friday morning to address the snow hazard.

Following the departure of the first system, a weak surface high
pressure is forecast to build back into the area. Model guidance
maintains consistency regarding a subsequent Clipper system tracking
through the central CONUS, reaching the CWAs vicinity by late
Saturday night into Sunday. PoP is expected to increase Saturday
afternoon; however, guidance for this second system is generally
more northerly, suggesting the heaviest precipitation will be
concentrated north of the CWA, primarily along and north of the Ohio
River. Nonetheless, isolated light accumulations across the northern
CWA cannot be entirely ruled out through Sunday morning. A cold
surface high-pressure system will subsequently build into the region
behind the departing low, ushering in some of the coldest
temperatures of the season thus far through the early part of the
succeeding week. A gradual warming trend is expected by the middle
of next week, preceding the approach of another system toward the
end of the forecast period.

In summary, the period will be characterized by the passage of two
distinct Clipper systems, one from Thursday night into Friday and
the second Saturday night into Sunday. Both systems are forecast to
bring periods of light snow accumulation. Strong surface high
pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on
Sunday, driving cold temperatures down to the upper single digits
and mid-teens. A notable warmup ahead of the next system is forecast
to commence by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025

In the wake of the cold front that pushed through the area this
past afternoon colder air continues to pour into this part of the
state. Periods of IFR conditions can be expected with any brief
squall type bands that pass through a terminal early overnight.
Conditions will gradually improve during the day, Thursday. Brisk
west to northwest winds slowly diminish overnight evening and
overnight before picking up to 10 kts on Thursday. The next
system will impact mainly northern terminals by the end of the
period with lowering CIGs and the potential for visibility
restrictions before midnight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday
for KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106>110-119-120.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ086>088-
110-113-115>118-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GINNICK/VORST
AVIATION...GREIF