Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
515 FXUS62 KKEY 022106 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 406 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Gentle to moderate southwest to west breezes will gradually slacken and west and northwest this evening and overnight. -Some areas of fog may develop over local waters by early Wenesday morning. -A benign forecast is anticipated for much of the week with rain chances near nil, increased humidity initially, before a dip with frontal passage mid week before increasing again by the weekend. Temperatures will also remain above normal early week, near normal mid week, and then above normal again by the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 406 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 A developing low pressure system extends from the Carolinas to the Florida Panhandle. A corresponding cold front is expected to press through the Keys late overnight into Wednesday morning. In the wake breezes will freshen out of north to northeast Wednesday. Another surface high builds back in following the front with gentle broadly southern breezes returning in time for the weekend. There is the potential for another frontal passage Sunday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 406 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected outside of any incoming showers this afternoon and early evening. Have added a TEMPO for showers that have a decent chance of passing over the EYW terminal. Surface winds out of the southwest to west will come around from the northwest to north and slacken overnight. Sea fog could develop over the waters north of MTH after 06Z/03 and drift over the airfield. Then as the winds clock around to the north to northeast and increase towards dawn Wednesday, additional fog or stratus could be advected over both terminals, with MTH having a higher chance of this occurring. Given that the conditions will be borderline for VIS impacts from fog, will include a CIG reduction to account for low stratus. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 A relatively uneventful early morning is underway across the Keys on this second day of December. KBYX radar detects a couple boundaries drifting through our CWA with a few shallow showers bubbling near the Dry Tortugas and the 409 Humps. GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery paints a similar picture with a scattered field of stratocumulus between the rope clouds notating convergence boundaries in our area. Looking north outside of our area, a mass of cloud cover associated with a trough marching towards the Eastern Seaboard is painted over much of southeast CONUS. The surface high located just ahead of this feature continues to promote moderate southeast to south breezes across the Reef. Meanwhile, temperatures are a touch warmer than this time yesterday with values in the upper 70s but feeling just as steamy with dew points persisting in the lower 70s. The short term forecast is one describing a transition between patterns. Deep layer troughing over the Ohio River Valley will continue to press east shifting the surface high over the Eastern Seaboard into the Atlantic. This will result in our moderate southeast breezes slackening and veering to the southwest by the end of the day. Tonight the trend will continue as winds continue to turn to the northwest ahead of the associated surface front lumbering southeast through mainland Florida and the western Gulf. While rain chances still float around near nil, warm temperatures and moist dewpoints over cooler waters is a recipe for some fog development north of the island chain early tomorrow morning. This is further enhanced by a northwesterly wind direction that will help advect already formed fog from mainalnd`s coastline. Later on Wednesday, the cold front is progged to scrape through our area. This will bring a small and brief respite to ongoing mild conditions. Low temperatures are currently expected to dip to near 70 Thursday morning with dewpoints falling to the upper 60s. Of course, this weak frontal passage`s influence will be short lived as southerly winds and warmer temperatures quickly return in time for the weekend. As the moist air mass never really gets cleared out, slight rain chances will return to the Keys as winds return to their more familiar southeasterly positions. Though, if extended guidance is to be believed, another cold front (this time somewhat stronger) is set to sweep through in the middle of next week drying things out once again. We just might be seeing some "winter" weather here then, but stay tuned for updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 70 78 70 79 / 10 10 0 0 Marathon 70 78 71 79 / 10 10 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest