Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
046 FXUS62 KKEY 020919 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 419 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will prevail through tonight. -Sunshine will continue to struggle to make a meaningful appearance due to lingering cloud cover. -Next cold front sweeps through on Monday with another round of breezy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 An area of convergence that has been sitting across the Straits of Florida for at least the last 24 hours, has begun slowly moving northward. In addition, KBYX radar shows the activity has really flared up in the last few hours. Despite this, we still have not observed lightning in any of this activity. Meanwhile, a broad and messy surface high remains pinned along the Eastern Seaboard this morning, which is maintaining a northeast wind across the Florida Keys. Upstream is a potent upper level low that is currently moving the Tennessee Valley with a pronounced shortwave at the base moving across SE Texas this morning. Let`s talk about each piece separately for a moment. We`ll start with the shortwave across Texas. This feature has a lot of dynamics with it as evident by the robust convection that has developed along a frontal boundary across the northwestern Gulf waters. This frontal boundary will quickly sweep eastward across the Gulf, before losing steam and becoming a quasi-stationary boundary across the central Gulf later this evening. Now, on to the upper level trough. This feature is developing a surface reflection along the southern spine of the Appalachians with its own attendent front. This surface low will not make as much eastward progress, which will allow for the upper level low to catch up to it late this evening. In addition, as the upper level low approaches the Southeast US, it will briefly phase with the shortwave. This phasing will be enough that the orphaned quasi- stationary boundary will merge with the other frontal boundary to become a singular front. This newly merged front will then begin accelerating southeast as a strong surface high quickly builds in. This will allow the front to pass through the Keys sometime on Monday. Accompanying this passage will be a quick uptick in winds with breezy conditions expected Monday night into Tuesday. As the high continues to build in behind the front, winds will take some time to slacken. Thereafter, the high will flatten out as it drifts into the southwest North Atlantic. This will maintain peaks and lulls in the winds through the remainder of the forecast period. Rain chances through the forecast period will be a mix of near normal to slightly above normal as the parade of features move through. && .MARINE... Issued at 419 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will continue today, but an upper level weather system currently over the Mississippi Valley will track east southeast, and will likely freshen winds as an associated front surges across the region sometime Monday and Tuesday. Thereafter, the next ridge will build in and breezes will slacken. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 419 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Latest radar imagery shows showers across the central Straits of Florida. These showers were slowly migrating northward, especially towards the MTH terminal. However, due to uncertainty on if this activity will hold together as well as timing, VCSH was not included in the TAF. There remains the low risk for a shower or two to affect the terminals later today into this evening. Near surface winds will remain northeast to east between 4 to 11 knots through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 75 81 71 / 20 30 10 10 Marathon 81 74 80 70 / 20 30 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest