Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
072 FXUS62 KKEY 261800 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 100 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Light east to southeast breezes are expected tonight, along with a few passing light showers at times. -The Thanksgiving holiday will serve as a turning point in our weather pattern, as a cold front marches down the Florida Peninsula, pushing through our area late tomorrow and into Friday. -The front is expected to linger across the area through the first half of the weekend, and will lead to a period of breezy to windy conditions. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for the Florida Keys marine zones. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 Surface analysis places a series of frontal boundaries extending across the eastern third of the United States. The first front i draped across the Florida Panhandle, with a second, stronger front lagging by several hundred miles. Closer to home, the Florida Keys are on the periphery of an area of high pressure centered in the central to eastern North Atlantic. The interaction of the fronts to the north and the high to the east have the Florida Keys in light to gentle east to southeast breezes, which are slowly slackening, as the fronts approach from the north. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled increasing moisture up to 700 mb owed to the waning low-level ridging, with still tremendous dry air above, as the mid-level ridge hasn`t budget yet. KBYX radar has detected scattered showers, mainly confined to the offshore Gulf waters and the Straits of Florida. Ample solar insolation outside of these showers will have highs in the lower to mid 80s at most communities. No changes needed to the inherited full- forecast at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 A surface ridge will continue to pull away this afternoon. A weak pressure field will result in light to gentle east to southeast breezes. A cold front associated with a deepening trough will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters late on Thursday. Breezes will freshen drastically late Thursday night in the wake of the front, with fresh to strong breezes and an increase in shower activity expected through Saturday night. Breezes will begin to slacken by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 While VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through 12z Thursday morning, occasional passing showers cannot be ruled out. These passing showers may result in brief bouts of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities, but the random nature to the timing and coverage warrants only a general mention of VCSH at this time late in the TAF period, as the shower coverage likely increases. Near- surface winds will be light out of the east to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 72 81 66 / 30 40 40 30 Marathon 82 74 80 66 / 30 40 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest