Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
439 FXUS62 KKEY 020719 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A relatively quiet overnight for the Florida Keys. We did start the night with residual shower activity drifting off the mainland. Most of this activity diminished but a batch of showers moving through the deep Gulf waters have managed to survive. Otherwise, winds are turning north to northeast as high pressure across the Eastern Seaboard begins to exerting its influence equatorward. Temperatures range between the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points hanging around the mid 70s. .FORECAST... The main focus for shower development today will be across the mainland during the day and afternoon, which will then drift south to southwest across the island chain. The best chances will across the Upper Keys with the Lower Keys having a lesser chance depending on if the activity holds together. The aforementioned high pressure along the East Coast will slowly attempt to move into the western North Atlantic. As this occurs it will gradually continue to build equatorward and exert more of its influence across the Florida Keys. This will result in freshening northeast to east breezes Friday with an increased threat for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Then eyes will turn to a feature that will develop across the Southeastern Bahamas starting Friday. A subtle easterly undulation will be moving along the periphery of the Bermuda High. The trajectory would focus it across South Florida, including the Florida Keys. Models are struggling with any form of organization. Best case scenario it remains a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms with a quasi-warm front lifting north across the area. This would equate to a wet weekend for at least portions of the Keys. Worst case scenario (and we want to preface that the National Hurricane Center only has a 10 percent chance of development at this time) a weak tropical disturbance takes form. At this time, it is way too early to tell what this feature may ultimately become but it does bear watching in the meantime. Whether a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, or a weak tropical disturbance, it will move northwest into the Gulf over the upcoming weekend. By early next week, high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will fill back in with freshening northeast to east breezes. This combined with residual moisture looks to continue the above normal rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The Gulfstream remains backed up from Imelda and is creating for higher tides, especially in the nearshore waters surrounding the Middle and Upper Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. High pressure is slowly moving across the eastern U.S., which will maintain a northeast wind across our waters today. This high will begin moving into the western North Atlantic later today and into the overnight and gradually build. This will lead to freshening northeast to east breezes into Friday evening. Winds will then briefly clock around towards the southeast for the upcoming weekend and return from the east early next week. Another period of moderate to fresh breezes is possible starting Monday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 06Z TAF period. Shower chances remain slightly above normal for this time of the year. Latest guidance a potential repeat yesterday with convection on the mainland moving southwestward weakening as it progresses across the Keys. Due to uncertainty in timing and placement, VCSH was not included in the TAF. Near surface winds will be mainly north to northeast between 3 to 8 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 77 88 77 / 30 30 30 40 Marathon 87 77 85 77 / 30 30 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest