Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
230 FXUS62 KKEY 111630 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Drier conditions will continue through the rest of the work week. -Northwest to north breezes will gradually clock around to the northeast and slacken heading into the end of the week. Late this weekend, breezes will once again freshen, as the next cold front pushes through the Florida Keys. -The next opportunity for showers and even possible thunderstorms is sometime over the Saturday to Sunday timeframe. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 What a difference twenty-four hours make. A cold front pushed through the Florida Keys overnight. While there was not much change in terms of temperatures in the wake of the front, available surface observations highlight dewpoints hovering near 60F at this late morning hour. GOES-16 visibile satellite imagery is depicting only few to scattered cloud cover dotting the Florida Keys marine zones, with both plan view total precipitable water product and vertical moisture profile derived from the 12z morning sounding at KEY highlighting substantial dry, continental moisture advection to the Keys. The forecast calls for near-nil rain chances this afternoon, with temperatures likely already peaking for daytime highs in the mid 70s. No changes required to the inherited overnight forecast package. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 506 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 KBYX is finally experiencing some relief since it has been rain- free all night. Though not shower related, Nighttime Microphysics does depict mostly cloudy skies for the region. Across the island chain temperatures cooled to the mid to upper 60s. Winds along the Reef are 10 to 15 knots. For today, winds are expected to slacken, and dry conditions will prevail as high pressure dominates our present weather. Not much is to change over the next few days, but as the high eventually goes into the western North Atlantic, winds will go from north to northeast back to northeast to east. The next front is expected to move through the Keys Sunday night into Monday morning and as a result breezes will become fresh to strong. For Monday and Monday night, Small Craft headlines may be required as winds are expected to reach those conditions. While winds will peak Monday night behind the front, they will remain elevated before gradually slackening later the work week. Prior to this frontal passage, Saturday night and Sunday will experience an uptick in rain chances. Once again dry conditions will return after the front has made its way through. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, as high pressure drifts eastward over the next several days and eventually into the western North Atlantic, winds will clock around to the north to northeast, then eventually northeast to east. The next frontal boundary is progged to push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Sunday night, with fresh to strong northeasterly breezes expected in the wake of the frontal passage for early next week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Friday morning, along with near-nil rain chances. Cloud cover will be limited to passing FEW-SCT025. Near-surface northerly breezes will gradually veer to the northeast, remaining at or less than 10 knots through the TAF period. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest