231
FXUS62 KKEY 300931
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
431 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Slight rain chances are expected today through Monday.

-Breezy conditions continue this morning, slackening further this
 afternoon to mainly northeast to east gentle to moderate breezes.

-Small Craft Advisories conditions remain in effect for all the
 Florida Keys coastal waters, except for Florida Bay and the
 nearshore waters to the north of the Middle Keys where Small
 Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) until winds decrease are
 headlined for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
It feels much different outside when compared with what it felt
like just 24 hours ago! Even though the wind is still blowing, the
humidity has increased and temperatures are about 5 degrees
warmer than this time last night. Temperatures along the Island
Chain are in the lower 70s and dew points are hovering near 70
degrees. KBYX radar has also been active for much of the night
with scattered showers affecting mainly the Island Chain and
marine waters to the south. Occasionally, a few showers make it to
the nearshore waters to the north of the Island Chain, but these
quickly entrain dry air and fizzle out. The most robust activity
has remained across the western Straits of Florida where thunder
and lightning were occasionally observed just outside of the Keys
coverage area. However, in the last hour, we just had a lightning
strike detected across the westernmost distant Straits zone to
the due south of Tortugas Ecological Reserve South. GOES Nighttime
Microphysics shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Keys
with mainly low to mid level clouds. The deeper clouds such as the
cumulonimbus and cumulus congestus have been across the western
distant Straits. Strong surface high pressure is centered just off
the New England coastline. This high extends to the south keeping
a heightened pressure gradient across the area. This is promoting
northeast to east breezes of 15 to 20 knots at marine platforms
to the north of the Island chain with near 20 knots to the south.

.FORECAST...
The aforementioned surface high pressure centered just off the New
England coastline will continue to slide farther to the east
today. As it moves further into the North Atlantic, the high will
loosen its grip on the Eastern Seaboard as well as Florida.
Therefore, expect northeast to east breezes to continue to slowly
slacken this morning becoming mainly gentle to moderate breezes
by this afternoon. Slightly drier air is expected to move into the
Keys leading to the ongoing shower activity currently waning and
becoming less widespread as the day wears on. Therefore, 20%
remains in the forecast for today. Some residual moisture will
continue to lurk over the Keys for tonight into Monday keeping
slight rain chances in the forecast.

Another high pressure will move across the eastern United States
tonight through Monday night taking the place of the previous
high, though, this one won`t be as strong. Therefore, expect
mainly gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes to continue
through Monday evening before shifting to the east to southeast
and further slackening overnight through Tuesday night. Rain
chances remain in the forecast through Monday with a dry forecast
anticipated thereafter. However, latest statistical guidance is
suggesting perhaps at least slight chances of showers through much
of the week. This will be scrutinized more intently with each
update. Therefore, it is possible that rain chances may creep back
into the forecast beyond Monday.

Another frontal boundary is expected to approach the Keys mid to
late week due to a developing coastal low over the DEL-MAR-VA
coast. However, before the front approaches, there may be a time
frame where the winds go light and variable along with dew points
in the lower to mid 70s. While we are still early on in the
season, there is the potential for sea fog to develop early
Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. We are cooling the
SST`s with each frontal passage and if we can get the dew points
to increase into the mid 70s along with light and variable wind
flow, this could set the stage for a window of sea fog. We will
continue to keep an eye on this. It also appears this next front
may just drift far enough south of the Island Chain mid to late
week to result in a slight dip in dew points along with nudging
temperatures down a couple degrees. Breezes are anticipated to
become north to northeasterly as well as freshening. Stay tuned!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys
coastal waters, except for Florida Bay and the nearshore waters
to the north of the Middle Keys. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution (SCEC) until winds decrease are headlined for Florida Bay
and the nearshore waters north of the Middle Keys. From synopsis,
strong surface high pressure located just off the New England
Coast will continue to promote fresh to strong northeast to east
breezes early this morning. As the high continues progressing
eastward through Monday, breezes will continue to slacken as well
as shift to the east. Another high will take the place of this
previous high for Monday night and early Tuesday keeping breezes
gentle to moderate. A developing storm system on the heels of this
high Tuesday will result in a weakening of the pressure gradient
across the Keys through early Wednesday. Its corresponding cold
front may try and push through the Keys mid to late week resulting
in freshening north to northeast breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
Expect bouts of MVFR CIGs and wind gusts up to near 20 knots
early. VCSH will stay in until just after sunrise or so. Shower
coverage near the terminals will then gradually decline through
the morning resulting in mainly VFR conditions along with
slackening breezes for the rest day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1959, the daily record low temperature of 49F was
recorded in Key West. This is also the coldest temperature ever
recorded in November, and the earliest winter date on which a
temperature below 50F has been recorded in Key West.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  73  80  75 /  20  20  20  10
Marathon  80  73  81  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     GMZ033>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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