Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
695 FXUS62 KKEY 012009 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 309 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Gentle to moderate breezes will become shift to the southeast towards early Tuesday morning. -Breezes will continue to clock around the compass while continuing to slacken through Wednesday as the next frontal system approaches due to developing low pressure along the Mid- Atlantic to New England coastlines. This could set up for potential foggy conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. -A benign forecast is anticipated for much of the week with rain chances near nil, increased humidity initially, before a dip with frontal passage mid week before increasing again by the weekend. Temperatures will also remain above normal early week, near normal mid week, and then above normal again by the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 A broad high pressure currently across the Great Lakes region will move into the New England States this evening. At the same time, an area of low pressure across the far western Gulf Basin as it moves into the North Gulf Coast area. This will clock winds around the compass, coming out of the east tonight and coming out from the south Tuesday. A corresponding cold front is expected to press through the Keys by early Wednesday morning. As this front approaches the area, breezes will initially slacken and could promote fog development. In the wake of the frontal passage breezes will freshen and shift north to northeast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 309 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Easterly winds this afternoon and evening will become southeast to south overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will further veer out of the southwest to west towards Tuesday afternoon. While a brief period of crosswinds will occur, the magnitude will be around 10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 The humidity is back at least for the next few days across the Florida Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 70s and dew points are in the lower 70s. This is making it feel quite humid and sticky to start the new and final month of 2025 (December). KBYX radar has been detecting isolated to scattered showers all night. The heaviest and most widespread activity has been across the southwestern distant Straits of Florida with more isolated activity elsewhere, mainly south of the Island Chain. However, occasionally a couple showers have been able to affect a few island chain communities, mostly in the Middle and Upper Keys. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows some low level clouds throughout the Keys with an area of high clouds across the southwestern Straits moving southeastward towards Cuba. Another large surface high pressure system is located over the Lower Great Lakes region. This is promoting gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes at marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain. .FORECAST... The aforementioned high pressure will continue to move to the east over the next 24 hours. Therefore, expect mainly gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes to continue through this evening before shifting to the east to southeast and further slackening overnight through Tuesday night. Moisture also continues to lurk over the area early this morning. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values of 1.4 to 1.6 inches throughout the Keys. While moisture is lingering, most of the shower activity has remained over the marine area. This is expected to be the main theme for today resulting in a dry forecast for the Island Chain. However, we do keep the rain chances over the Straits of Florida, especially the west side. As this high continues moving off to the east, a storm system will begin to quickly develop on its heels. This system will become a Nor`easter as it moves northeastward to a place just off the New England coastline by Tuesday evening. However, the item of interest for the Keys will be another frontal boundary which is expected to approach and then move through the Keys sometime mid week. However, before we get to frontal passage, there may a time frame early Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning where the winds go light and variable along with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. While we are still early on in the season, there is the potential for sea fog to develop early Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. We are cooling the SST`s with each frontal passage and with dew points in the mid 70s along with light and variable wind flow, this could set the stage for a window of sea fog. We will continue to keep an eye on this. After the potential brief window for fog, the aforementioned front is expected to press through the Keys sometime Wednesday. This will result in winds clocking around the compass becoming north to northeasterly Wednesday night into Thursday. Accompanying the freshening winds will also be a dip in the dew points, potentially back into the mid to upper 60s along with a few degrees drop in temperatures. Moisture is expected to be remain rather meager through much of the week resulting in a dry forecast. However, rain chances will be lurking nearby, mainly over the marine area surrounding the Keys. In the wake of the front, a series of much weaker high pressure systems will traverse across the eastern United States as the pattern remains progressive. Therefore, expect breezes to continue to clock around the compass this week as multiple frontal systems approach and try to press through the Keys. Rain chances remain near nil for the Island Chain through late week before slight chances creep back in for the second half of the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 75 83 73 79 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 74 83 72 79 / 0 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest