Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
939 FXUS62 KKEY 091541 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1041 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers are expected through this evening, as a weak frontal boundary lingers across the Straits of Florida . -Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are posted for the offshore Gulf, Hawk Channel, and the Straits of Florida for fresh northeasterly breezes. -As the front pushes eastward and away from the Florida Keys, much drier conditions will overspread late overnight through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Surface and lower-tropospheric composite analysis places a broad quasistationary frontal boundary somewhere lurking in the vicinity of the the northern Straits of Florida. As expected, the focus of convective activity has been south of the frontal feature, mainly 20 to 50 nm offshore of the Island Chain. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a very moist profile up to around 600 mb, coupled with decent directional veering. The forecast calls for one more day of unsettled conditions for the Florida Keys and adjacent marine zones, mainly south of the Island Chain. As the front finally glides eastward and away from the Keys, a much drier continental air mass will filter through the CWA, supporting low rain chances after this late evening. No changes proposed to the inherited full forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are posted for the offshore Gulf, including the Dry Tortugas, Hawk Channel, and the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, moderate to fresh north to northeast breezes are expected this afternoon, as a frontal boundary remains draped across the Straits of Florida. As the front slides eastward and away from the Florida Keys marine zones, breezes will slacken late tonight through Wednesday. A second weak front will push through the coastal waters late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with modestly freshened northwesterly breezes clocking around to the northeast to east for late week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Scattered showers will try to push closer to the terminals later this afternoon and early evening. Due to the lack of confidence in terms of how close these showers ultimately make it to the terminals, a general mention of VCSH is included in the TAFs for now, with any impacts to visibilities and ceilings left to potential later issuances. As drier air pushes towards the Keys late in the overnight period, VCSH is removed from the TAFs for the extended period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 540 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 It`s been a busy KBYX overnight, though a majority of the activity has not impacted land. A cold front that moved into our coastal waters earlier yesterday has stalled in the Straits which is why the associated showers have lingered around. While there are numerous showers, thunderstorms are no longer a threat at this time. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower to mid 70s and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, meaning it will be a moist morning. Across the Reef, winds are currently near 15 knots. While this front continues to weaken and leave through our distant Straits, the remainder of the week will be dominated by a relatively weak synoptic setup; a broad ridge resulting in mild, humid conditions. Winds will fluctuate between light to moderate and showers will be isolated to scattered at times. This will change in the extended forecast, as another potentially stronger cold front approaches Florida early next week. Associated with this front will be another increase in moisture and instability, resulting in higher rain and thunder chances. Post frontal, there will be a shift in wind direction (north to northeast), a slight relief with lower humidity, and drier conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 70 79 67 / 50 30 20 10 Marathon 77 70 78 67 / 60 40 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest