Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
486 FXUS62 KKEY 091811 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 111 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Warm and humid afternoon across the Keys with light breezes. -Seasonal King Tides will likely support bouts of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide again tonight. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -A significant cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Monday. This will result in much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions developing for the first part of the work week. .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Despite a few isolated showers possible, VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through Monday morning. Thereafter, a strong cold front will push through the terminals from west to east, where a broken line of showers warrants inclusion of MVFR CIGs and a window for VCSH in the TAFs. Light and variable winds will gradually clock around to the west to northwest, then to the northwest to north in the wake of the front, with cross-wind components to the wind gusts over 20 knots late in the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 911 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. High pressure will continue to slide eastward across the central North Atlantic through Sunday. This will result in mainly light east to southeast breezes, potentially becoming variable at times. A potent cold front will push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Monday bringing fresh to strong northerly winds by Monday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for all Keys marine zones beginning as early as late morning on Monday. As the next high builds in behind the front, winds will shift out of the northeast and gradually slacken. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will remain possible. && && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 452 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 The short term forecast calls for one more day of lighter winds with humid and warm conditions before a potent cold front sweeps through at the start of the week. A surface ridge axis nosed over our area will maintain light southeasterly breezes into the afternoon. It will then shift east into the western North Atlantic leaving us in a col region ahead of a deep layer trough diving through the Ohio River Valley towards southeast CONUS. As a result, the next 24 hours or so holds very similar conditions to yesterday as both our winds and current airmass will remain constant in this prefrontal environment. Expect humid and warm conditions but still only a slight chance of rain as a mix of dry air aloft and an unfavorable low level wind profile keeps organized convection at bay. Monday will be a completely different story however. The previously mentioned deep layer trough will surge into the southeast US with an associated surface cold front blasting through the Gulf and into our area. Gentle to moderate northwest breezes will quickly freshen to strong breezes by Monday afternoon. Sharply increasing winds will enhance surface convergence and numerical guidance is quick to suggest enhanced PoPs, but less moisture in the middle to upper levels atmosphere ahead of the front is keeping PoPs slight at best for now. The peak of the wind event looks to be set for overnight Monday with strong to near gale northerly breezes currently forecast. These winds will then gradually slacken through Tuesday but stay in at least the moderate category for the rest of the week. A strong northerly blow will also bring a cool (cold for the locals) and dry airmass with low temperatures possibly below 60 across the Keys Monday night! This unusually early sample of dry season conditions will not last for too long however, as temperatures recover back to near normal before the end of the week. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest