Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
737 FXUS62 KKEY 160925 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 425 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Light to gentle breezes will continue through into early week, variable at times. -Dry air will limit shower development through early this week. -High temperatures will warm to near 80F for much of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 Another cool and quiet night is ongoing across the Florida Keys. GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values of 0.65 to 0.8 inches which is even slightly drier than at this time just 24 hours ago. Also, the 00z evening sounding showed an incredibly dry profile with a PWAT value measured of 0.68 inches. This is below the 10th percentile for the date indicating there is a very dry air mass overhead. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics shows mostly clear skies across the Keys with just some low to mid level clouds. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 60s and dew points are in the lower to mid 60s. Earlier in the night, the Big Pine Key RAWS dipped down to 62 degrees due to some radiational cooling taking place. Weak high pressure remains in control across much of Florida. This is promoting variable breezes of 5 to 10 knots at marine platforms surrounding the Keys. .FORECAST... Quiet and nice weather continues for the Keys through much of this week. A weak and flat ridge will dominate much of Florida today through Monday. This will keep dry air entrenched throughout the area and much of the state leading to nil rain chances for the foreseeable future. The exception might be over the Straits where slightly deeper moisture could lend to a shower or two. Light to gentle breezes are expected to continue through Monday. Daytime highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with overnight lows 65 to 70 degrees. With the light winds and generally clear sky, there is the likelihood for radiational cooling across the Island Chain tonight and Monday night before winds begin to increase. Another high pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. early this week will lead to a strengthening of the pressure gradient across the Keys. This will promote freshening northeast to east breezes for mid to late week. This may also lead to a period of breezy conditions once again for the Island Chain. Moisture remains meager keeping rain chances near nil through the extended. As winds also shift to the east, this will lead to slowly increasing humidity and temperatures with daytime highs creeping back into the lower 80s by late next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 425 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure will continue to promote light to gentle breezes today through Monday. Due to the weak flow, there may be periods of light and variable breezes, mainly in the afternoons. Another high pressure system will traverse across the eastern United States early this week while slowly strengthening. This will allow for freshening northeast to east breezes for the middle and latter part of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Dry air will limit any shower development and cloud coverage will be minimal. Light breezes will be variable and become northwest to north later today. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1940, the daily record low temperature of 56F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 69 79 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 79 67 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest