Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
427 FXUS62 KKEY 230933 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 433 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will ride eastward across our area over the next couple of days, keep rain chances out of the forecast in the short term. -A broad continental high will push eastward into the eastern United States early next week, resulting in moderately strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week. -Probability is increasing that a cold front will push into the Keys region early Friday. A progressive pattern means only a modest amount of cooling is expected from the current near to slightly above normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Broad mid and upper level troughing is swinging into the Atlantic this morning. However, lingering warm and dry layers persist through the mid levels keeping the environment stable. A weak surface ridge is strung across the Florida Peninsula, resulting in light north to northeasterly breezes. The surface airmass has been fairly stagnant with temperatures ranging near to slightly above normal and dew points well up in the upper 70s. The surface ridge to our north will weaken a bit further today. This compounded by day time heating should help to back light breezes more northerly allowing dew points to slip a degree or two into the mid to upper 60s. Stable conditions will continue and rain chances will remain nil over the next couple of days. A modest mid to upper level ridge will ride eastward into the eastern United States through the first half of the week. This will help to reinforce the warm and dry mid levels. The boundary layer flow will strengthen out of the northeast to east as an associated surface high also migrates into the eastern United States. The boundary layer is expected to moistens and deepen with bouts of low level veering making an appearance. As a result, will maintain slight chance PoPs beginning Tuesday. This is near to slightly above guidance. No significant trend in temperatures is expected. Winds are expected to nearly collapse around mid week as the deep layered ridging gets kicked out into the Atlantic by broad troughing swinging eastward across the United States. This lull is expected to last a day as guidance is becoming more consistent with a cold front passage late Thanksgiving night or early Friday. Associated freshening breezes will be driven by a robust surface high building in behind a lifting out prefrontal trough that never reaches the Keys. The pattern is expected to remain stuck in progressive mode. As a result, north to northeasterly post cold front breezes are expected to veer quickly northeast to east by this weekend. Any cool down is expected to be only a couple to few degrees with dew points visiting the mid 60s briefly in wake of the front. While slight chance PoPs are currently advertised for the long range forecast, there is a good chance that this is on the low side. This is due to the fast veered flow and copious lower level moisture slung in by the stalling front, and very deep boundary layer. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Weak ridging across Florida will result in light mostly northeasterly breezes today into tomorrow. Through the first half of the week a robust surface high will drive eastward through the eastern United States, resulting in freshening easterly breezes, likely peaking Monday night. Breezes are expected to trend sharply downwards on Wednesday as this high moves out into the Atlantic. A more substantial and multi-day stretch of fresh breezes are expected to build in beginning around early Friday as a stronger high lumbers through the eastern United States. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 328 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with northeast surface winds 5 to 10 knots. Skies will remain mostly clear with only FEW clouds near FL030, and chances of rain will be near zero through the TAF period. && .OF NOTE... On this day in 1905, local standard time was changed to the seventy-fifth meridian time, made by omitting the hour between 11 a.m. and noon, on Thursday, November 23, 1905. This action was taken "in order that the time on the city clocks might be the same as that of the naval station, the telegraph office, and the ships calling there." && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest