Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
357 FXUS62 KKEY 020305 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1005 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will continue overnight, and gradually veer to the south to southeast tomorrow. -Breezes will continue to slacken and veer as we head into the middle of the week, and some areas of fog may develop over local waters by early Wenesday morning. -A benign forecast is anticipated for much of the week with rain chances near nil, increased humidity initially, before a dip with frontal passage mid week before increasing again by the weekend. Temperatures will also remain above normal early week, near normal mid week, and then above normal again by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 920 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 We`ve kicked off the work week with a rather uneventful evening shift. Shower activity this afternoon over the distant Florida Straits had diminished by dinnertime, but a few isolated showers noted on our KBYX radar have developed to the east of the island chain. It looks like a couple of these showers may have crossed the Upper Keys, so the forecast package was updated to reflect a slight chance (10%) of showers for the rest of tonight. There are no automated surface observations where these showers have passed, but radar derived rainfall totals are suggesting that these are very light showers producing only a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall at most. The 00Z KKEY sounding shows an impressively wet profile considering we`re at the beginning of December, and a veering wind profile throughout the vertical, so these isolated showers may continue for the next few hours at least. However, there doesn`t seem to be much in terms of a larger lifting mechanism, so widespread development is unlikely. Outside of the recent shower development, the forecast is unfolding as expected. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s, so the moisture in the air is noticeable, but not overly oppressive. Some cloud cover associated with this relatively damp air mass is in place, but we may be able to see a few stars in the breaks of the clouds. No other changes or updates are needed at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 920 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, another large area of high pressure currently located over the Lower Great Lakes region will continue moving eastward through the afternoon. This will continue to promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes shifting to southeasterly by Tuesday morning as the high shifts farther east. A developing storm system on the heels of this high will result in a weakening of the pressure gradient across the Keys through early Wednesday. Breezes will also clock around the compass going from southeast to south Tuesday to northwest to north by early Wednesday. Its corresponding cold front is expected to press through the Keys mid to late week resulting in freshening north to northeast breezes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 920 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with only FEW to SCT skies near FL025. Surface winds of 5 to 10 knots will veer in direction over the course of the TAF period. A couple of very light showers may pass over, or near, either terminal, but chances are very low and rainfall would be light, so opting to keep the current TAFs dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 75 83 73 79 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 74 83 72 79 / 0 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest