957
FXUS62 KKEY 110312
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1012 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A significant cold front traversed the Florida Keys earlier
 today. Much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions
 developed and will last for the first part of the work week.

-Temperatures expected to return to slightly below normal by the
 end of the week as a high pressure system sets up over the
 northern Gulf.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
Anyone that went outside earlier today would have noticed a
sudden increase in wind speed before noon, windy conditions by
noon, and a gradual decrease in temperature and dew point. Gusts
at both EYW and MTH peaked above 35 mph, and breezes along the
reef are consistently gusting to near 30 knots. A large, dry air
mass surged south over the Keys in the front`s wake. The KKEY 00Z
sounding highlights the post-frontal environment. A very well-
mixed boundary layer allowed strong gusts to reach the surface, a
defined frontal inversion was separating upper level air from the
mixed layer, significant portions of the upper troposphere were
very dry, and the sampled PWAT value was just above the 25th
percentile.

The KKEY sounding captured the environment just after sunset,
which was right as deep layers of dry air started pushing into the
Keys. While GOES- East nighttime microphysics observations
highlight thick layers of cirrus and altocumulus, the atmosphere
is drying out. CIMSS MIMIC derived PWAT measured a drop from near
1.2" at sunset to 0.6" in just two hours. Dew points are dropping,
and temperatures have fallen below 70 F.

The dry air mass that surged south across the eastern CONUS will
not linger very long. A mid level ridge over the Baja Peninsula
will move east and support a well defined surface high over
northern Florida. While strong to near gale force breezes will
howl tonight, winds are forecast to slacken tomorrow. While dew
points will plunge into the 40s overnight, veering breezes will
support a rapid return of moisture. Temperatures will rebound
quickly, this cold pulse is short lived.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1012 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine
zones, with near-gale gusts possible overnight. From synopsis,
fresh to strong northerly breezes will peak overnight in the wake
of a cold front that pushed across the Florida Keys marine zones
earlier today. Winds will shift out of the northeast and gradually
slacken through the week while an area of high pressure builds in
behind the front. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will
remain possible through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the 00Z TAF
period. CIGs lifted above MVFR heights before sunset. However, BKN
CIGs near FL015 cannot be ruled out. Winds will remain elevated
with periods of 20 knot sustained winds with gusts near 30 knots
expected overnight. Winds will start to slacken and veer north
northeasterly before sunrise. Expect crosswinds to frequently gust
over 20 knots throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  57  68  63  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  55  66  63  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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