878
FXUS62 KKEY 251039
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
539 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Deep layered ridging will continue to lift eastward into the
 central Atlantic during the next couple of days, allowing for
 easterly breezes to continue to encourage a slight chance of
 rainfall in the short term.

-The Thanksgiving holiday will serve as a turning point in our
 weather pattern as a cold front marches down the Florida
 peninsula, and pushes through our area late Thursday into Friday.

-The front is expected to linger across the area through the first
 half of the weekend, and will lead to a period of breezy to
 windy conditions. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 529 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
It has been another tame night outside of a few isolated showers
currently moving through. The ASOS at NAS Key West reported a
trace of rainfall just after 3 AM, but this is the only site where
rain occurred. Based on the low reflectivity on radar, its fair
to assume the rest of these showers are also producing very little
rainfall. Infrared imagery from GOES-19 shows a swath of low
level clouds stretched across the area, but it looks patchy enough
to allow sunshine to prevail today. This benign weather will
remain in place for the next couple of days as ridging stretched
across much of the region slowly pulls eastward. High temps will
again be in the lower 80s coupled with light to gentle easterly
breezes. Opting to continue with a slight chance (10%) of rain due
to the increasing moisture in the lower levels.

Conditions will change drastically over the Thanksgiving holiday.
As the ridging in place pulls farther away, a trough digging into
the southeastern U.S. will send a cold front down the Florida
peninsula. Breezes will back from the east to the north ahead of
the front during the day on Thursday, and breezy to windy
conditions will move in as the front arrives later that night.
There is still lower confidence related to when shower activity
will initiate as the global models continue to project higher PoPs
earlier on the holiday whereas the NBM is still showing lower PoPs
well after dinnertime. Regardless of the finer details related to
sensible weather, this cold front is going to bring a dish of
cooler air with some rainfall on the side. Be sure to secure your
dinner plate, so it doesn`t blow away!

The front is still expected to stall somewhere in the vicinity of
our southern waters, resulting in slightly elevated PoPs and
breezy to windy conditions carrying on into the weekend.
Temperatures will feel a little more festive as highs will range
from the mid to upper 70s, and overnight lows may bottom out in
the mid to upper 60s. When the front decays near the end of the
weekend, higher pressure will be able to build back in and
seasonable, drier conditions will have the opportunity to return.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 529 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across
the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, ridging extended
across the Florida peninsula will continue to gradually pull away
over the next couple of days. As this happens, the pressure field
across the area will weaken, and our gentle to moderate easterly
breezes will become light to gentle by Wednesday morning. These
conditions won`t last long as a cold front associated with a
progressive, deepening trough will dig into the southeastern U.S.
and send a cold front down the Florida peninsula. Breezes will
freshen drastically late Thursday as the front approaches, and the
end of the week will see a period of fresh to strong breezes and
an increase in shower activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today.
Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the east.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1970, the daily record low temperatures of 44F was recorded in
Marathon. This is the coldest temperature ever recorded in Marathon
in the month of November. Temperature records for Marathon date back
to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  74  82  72 /  10  10  20  30
Marathon  82  74  82  72 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....11

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest