419
FXUS63 KLBF 162351
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
651 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms remain possible late Thursday afternoon/evening
  with isolated large hail and heavy rain the main concerns.

- A frontal boundary arriving Saturday will bring cooler temperatures
  and the threat for widespread frost on Sunday morning.

- Overall, temperatures are expected to remain mild with largely
  dry conditions for the majority of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Currently, expansive rain and thunderstorms were occurring east of
Highway 83. This was largely driven by strong warm air advection
with brief heavy rain being the main concerns in the stronger cores.
To the west, a cool front has stalled around a OGA to VTN line with
northwesterly flow to the west. This was working to hold
temperatures back with middle 60s for most locations as a result.

Late this afternoon and evening, the early afternoon convection will
continue to shift east but weaken as it does so. This occurs as the
belt of stronger flow off the surface begins to back and focus aims
towards the frontal boundary to the west. As we get towards the
evening, a reintensifying LLJ will lead to strong convergence along
the stalled boundary to the west and should allow for a second round
of rain and thunderstorms to develop. Afternoon observations show
temperatures in the warm sector have been slow to climb, however,
areas of southwest Nebraska where clear skies have been more
prevalent have produced reasonably mixed boundary layers and
stronger instability as a result. Still though, with MUCAPE values
likely only reaching the 500-1000 j/kg range, expectations are for
the threat for severe convection to be a short window and limited in
scope. A few instances of 1" hail are the main concern but with the
threat for training storms within an anomalously moist environment
will have to monitor for heavy rain. HREF localized probability-
matched mean QPF highlights a narrow corridor of 1.00"+ with
isolated pockets of closer to 2.00". Believe this is fairly
reasonable and leaned on this guidance for QPF.

Individual CAMs suggest that round two gets underway around 21-23z
(4-6pm CDT), focused across southwest Nebraska and eventually
lifting north and east through the evening. Given storms likely
outrunning the main plume of instability, believe intensity should
quickly wane after 01z (8pm CDT) with general thunderstorms/moderate
rainfall the main concern thereafter. Forcing wanes quickly as the
LLJ veers and the shortwave trough quickly departs to the north and
east. As a result, have most PoPs ending by Midnight CDT save for
north central Nebraska which may have lingering light activity for a
few hours in the early morning Friday. Lows tonight will vary
considerably from west to east owing to lingering precip and clouds
to the east where temperatures will hold around 50F. Further west,
well behind the front, believe some middle to upper 30s are possible
over the western Sandhills with lower 40s likely elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Departing shortwave from Thursday will lift into the Northern Plains
and phase into larger scale troughing situated over southern Canada.
The latter of these features will remain in place through the
weekend with a few disturbances translating south and east on the
backside of the low center. The first of these will arrive late
Friday into early Saturday. This will result in a progressive cool
front leading to cooling temperatures and Chances (up to 40%) for
light rain across our northern zones. This is likely to occur
primarily Saturday morning. Guidance is fairly pessimistic regarding
QPF with generally 0.15" or less forecast for any location in the
forecast area. Though cooler air will accompany this, thermal
profiles still support an all-rain event. Blustery northwest winds
with moderate CAA will promote gusty winds all day. In coordination
with neighboring offices, opted to boost these slightly with gusts
up to 35 mph possible. Later that night, cooling will allow
temperatures to fall into the lower 30s with a few locations
potentially reaching the upper 20s. Given fairly limited coverage of
frost conditions thus far, will need to keep an eye on the need for
Frost/Freeze headlines. NBM probabilities still highlight 70-90%
probabilities for seeing < 32F so will continue to mention frost in
the weather grids at this time. Temperatures warm quickly Sunday as
southwesterly flow redevelops on the backside of a glancing high
pressure. This may promote an influx of drier air along with breezy
winds, a combination supporting at least an elevated concern for
fire weather. Many deterministic solutions suggest the going
forecast for afternoon humidity minimums have room to fall still so
will need to pay close attention to this with subsequent forecasts.
Next week, a few disturbances track out of the Pacific Northwest and
encroach on the Central Plains. At this time, the most notable of
these appears to be Monday into early Tuesday. Even though strong
height falls spread south into northern Nebraska, precipitable water
values roughly 75% of normal for mid-October will keep things on the
dry side. NBM trends have decreased PoPs and EPS/GEFS support the
dry forecast inherited from the model blend. Thereafter, strong
height rises arrive as upstream ridging begins to amplify. This will
keep things on the mild side and maintain dry weather through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A line of thunderstorms will advance slowly eastward across the
area this evening. Skies will clear with VFR conditions to
prevail behind the line. Winds will shift to the west at 5-15
kts through the day Friday behind the front.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Taylor