469
FXUS63 KLBF 082152
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
352 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds gusting up to 55 mph develop as a strong low
  pressure passes by to the north Tuesday into early Wednesday
  morning.

- Light precipitation in the form of a rain/snow mix will be possible
  each day Wednesday through Saturday but little to no impacts
  are expected.

- Much colder temperatures arrive by late week with values
  10-20F below normal but return to more seasonable levels by
  early the following week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Afternoon satellite analysis depicts broad high pressure across much
of the Great Lakes region with surface troughing extending south
through the Northern Plains and into the Sandhills. To the west,
high pressure was situated over the Great Salt Lake and this was
beneath extensive upper ridging off the coast of California.
Enhanced upper-level flow was rounding the top of this high pressure
aloft with extensive cloud cover across the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies. Afternoon temperatures have once again quickly
exceeded even the more optimistic morning forecast values with many
locations reaching the 50s to near 60F and breezing northwest winds
gusting 25 to 35 mph.

For tonight...a northern stream disturbance will lead to strong lee-
cyclogenesis over the Canadian Rockies. Ahead of this, surface
height falls will overspread the Northern Plains while high pressure
persists across the Intermountain West. This will compress the
pressure gradient and lead to increasing westerly winds overnight.
Towards daybreak Tuesday, westerly winds may gust 20 to 25 mph
across the Sandhills. Skies will largely be partly to mostly cloudy
and while the increased winds and clouds typically promote more mild
overnight temperatures, the westerly component will advect drier air
and lead to greater cold air drainage. This translates to lows in
the middle 20s to low 30s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...perhaps the day with greatest impacts across
the region as strong winds develop behind a passing strong cold
front. Aforementioned developing low pressure in the lee of the
Canadian Rockies will quickly move east-southeast into the upper
Midwest by later in the day. This will drag a strong cold front
south through the area by late in the day. Ahead of this, pressures
will fall as the preceding surface trough arrives beneath very
strong flow with various NWP guidance suggesting h85 speeds climbing
to around 50-60 knots. While no precipitation is expected with this
frontal passage, rapid pressure rises coincident with strong CAA
will immediately follow and lead to an increase in winds through the
evening and overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Casting some
uncertainty in magnitude of expected wind gusts are: 1) how
effectively we mix the boundary layer to tap in the stronger winds
and 2) timing of the greatest surge of cold air and whether we can
realize gusts during the overnight hours. NBM probabilities
highlight greatest confidence in seeing 45+ mph gusts across the
northern Sandhills during the late afternoon and early evening (~50-
70% at Valentine), increasing to ~75-80% closer to Midnight for far
north central Nebraska (Spencer). Recent trends in high resolution
guidance has been to delay onset of strongest winds while also
decreasing the peak magnitude during the daytime. This fairly
apparent in midday NAM Nest and HRRR runs. This lends credence to
the decision to forego any headlines at this time, with at least one
if not two more forecasts to go before winds hit their stride. Will
defer to subsequent shifts and continue to message 50-55 mph gusts
by late afternoon and into the evening for our north and northeast
zones. While impressive in its own right but overshadowed by the
winds will be the afternoon highs. Forecast highs at North Platte
and Valentine are +/- 2F of their climatological 90th percentile
values for the day. Afternoon highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
will be nearly 20-25F above normal for the calendar day. Factoring
in the expected winds, and a slight uptick in fire weather concerns
are expected. While headlines are not anticipated, gusts exceeding
40 mph for all locations with the well above normal temperatures
will likely support erratic behavior and rapid spread of any fire
starts. With strong winds continuing late, humidity recovery will be
poor around 60-75% as lows fall into the 20s.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...rapid height rises will
overspread the Central Plains as shortwave trough will quickly
settle into the middle Ohio Valley. Broad ridging aloft will prevail
across the western CONUS with northwesterly flow stretching along
the Northern Rockies through the Central Plains. While the upper-
level flow will largely be devoid of more notable systems, a stalled
frontal boundary with southwesterly flow into it could allow some
low-end precipitation chances linger through the middle of the week.
At this time, favored windows for light precipitation will be late
Wednesday and again late Thursday but QPF appears light with little
in the way of wintry impacts expected. Temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday will again climb into the 40s for most and perhaps a few
locations hitting the middle to upper 50s in our southwest. A
southeast shifting high pressure will introduce much colder
temperatures for Friday into the start of the weekend. Temperatures
look to fall with many remaining below the freezing mark. Morning
lows with expected winds will likely support sub-freezing wind
chills as well but at this time, these values appear set to fall
short of reaching Cold Weather Advisories (-20F WC or air
temperature).

Sunday and beyond...heights begin to build more significantly by the
start of next week. Ridging aloft will build north and east,
centering around the Great Salt Lake by late Sunday night. Following
the passage of a couple clipper-like systems in the Monday-Tuesday
time frame, ridging will again begin to build east with ridge axis
approaching around the middle of the week. This allows for a return
to upper 40s and lower 50s by Tuesday, persisting through the end of
the forecast period. With the high pressure aloft and upper jet
large north of the area, little to no signals exist for appreciable
moisture and thus the going forecast is dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Increasing cloud cover is likely through the next 12 hours but
ceilings are likely to remain at or above 5kft AGL. Gusty winds
will likely develop this afternoon and could briefly surpass 35
knots at a few locations. For now, believe this threat is
greatest across our northwestern zones and have omitted mention
of any stronger magnitudes at either terminal. Towards the end
of the period, stronger gusts will again develop but should peak
just beyond the end of the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ