256
FXUS63 KLBF 031137
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
537 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather concerns are expected daily Monday, Wednesday,
  and Friday. Near critical to possibly critical fire weather
  concerns are likely Tuesday and possible on Thursday.

- Dry conditions are expected over the next 7 days with temperatures
 above normal through Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected
 Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

H5 analysis tonight and a closed low over far NW Georgia, NE
Alabama and SE Tennessee. A trough extended south of this
feature to the Yucatan Peninsula. Another shortwave was present
over the central Gulf. North of this low, ridging was present
from northern New York north into northern Quebec. Further west,
an active zonal northern stream was present from southwestern
Canada into the arrowhead of Minnesota and western Ontario.
Several weak disturbances were noted within this flow, the most
noted being over eastern Ontario. Low amplitude ridging extended
from Arizona and New Mexico north into Colorado and Utah. West
of this feature, a decent shortwave trough was located over the
Los Angeles Basin. At the surface overnight...high pressure was
present from eastern Montana to the Black Hills of South Dakota.
Southeast of this feature, a cold front extended from
northeastern Iowa into west central Kansas. North of the front,
there was a corridor of northerly winds of 10 to 20 MPH. Further
north across western and north central Nebraska, winds were
light from the west or northwest. Temperatures as of 2 AM CST
ranged from 27 degrees at Gordon, to 44 degrees at O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Over the next 12 hours, surface high pressure will build into
the Nebraska Panhandle this morning, then eastern Nebraska this
afternoon. Winds will start the day from the north with a shift
to the east late morning then south during the afternoon hours.
By afternoon, we could see some 10 to 15 MPH wind speeds in the
western third of the forecast area. Highs this afternoon will
range from the upper 50s to around 60 across the forecast area.
Surface low pressure will develop across western South Dakota
tonight. As this feature deepens, it will force a warm front
across the forecast area overnight. Lows will be mild across the
area with readings in the lower 30s to around 40. The surface
low will continue to deepen across South Dakota along a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary Tuesday. South of this boundary, H85
temps will approach 20c across western Nebraska Tuesday
afternoon. Mid level winds will also increase Tuesday and bufkit
soundings indicate a decent threat for 25+ MPH wind gusts west
of highway 83. With highs touching the 80 degree mark, westerly
winds and minimum RH bottoming out around 15 percent, confidence
is increasing in critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon. The corridor of highest winds extends from the
panhandle and northeastern Colorado into the western Sandhills
and far SW Nebraska, per GFS and NAM12 bufkit fcst soundings.
Also with SPC highlighting these areas in their FWDDY2 day two
fire weather outlook, feel confident in hoisting a fire weather
watch for zones 204 and 210. Some locations in zone 206 could
see min RH around 15 percent Tuesday afternoon, however forecast
confidence in winds reaching 25 MPH decreases over the central
and eastern Sandhills. As for winds Tuesday, felt the NBM
forecast was too low on wind speeds, particularly in the western
Sandhills and far SW Nebraska. That being said, blended 1/3rd
of the 90%ile with 2/3rds of straight NBM for winds. This
yielded wind gusts in these areas of 25 to 30 MPH which better
reflected the BUFKIT soundings mentioned above. As for highs
Tuesday, H85 temps are fairly close to what was observed Sunday
afternoon. With westerly winds and good mixing, wouldn`t be
surprised if we saw low 80s across SW Nebraska and the western
Sandhills. If temps continue to trend upward, min RH Tuesday
afternoon could approach 10% in the eastern Panhandle. As for
records Tuesday, they are 82, 82, 81 and 82 for North Platte,
Valentine, Broken Bow and Imperial respectively. The current
forecast includes 74 for Broken Bow, 72 for Valentine, 77 for
North Platte and 80 for Imperial.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

The frontal boundary over South Dakota Tuesday, will be forced
south through the forecast area as a cool front Tuesday night.
High pressure will track from the Dakotas into SW Minnesota and
Iowa Wednesday. Light winds from the east will transition to the
south over the western forecast area Wednesday afternoon and
may become gusty over the eastern Panhandle. Surface low
pressure will develop over western South Dakota Wednesday night,
forcing a warm front through the forecast area. Highs Thursday
will reach into the mid to upper 60s with gusty west winds
developing during the afternoon hours. The current NBM ensembles
have a better than 50% chance for wind gusts greater than 25
MPH west of an Ainsworth to North Platte line mid afternoon
Thursday. No doubt the gusty winds will lead to elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions, however with highs in the
upper 60s, min RH will bottom out in the 20 to 25 percent range
which is well above critical RFW criteria. Will continue to
highlight the elevated to near critical threat in the HWO and
FWF forecasts. Highs will cool back into the lower 60s for
Friday. On Saturday, the h5 pattern will amplify across the
CONUS as ridging builds into the western CONUS and troughing
amplifies over the eastern CONUS. This will place the forecast
area in NW flow aloft this weekend. The latest GFS soln develops
some precipitation over northeastern Nebraska Saturday in
association with a clipper system. This notion is currently not
supported by the EC ensembles, as well as the NBM forecast. That
being said, will keep the forecast dry through the weekend.
However, colder air will back into the forecast area Saturday
into Sunday. Highs Sunday will range from the middle 40s in the
east, to middle 50s in SW Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Skies will be mainly clear through the afternoon hours with a
few high clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Sky cover will increase
this evening with scattered to broken ceilings around 25000 FT
AGL. Winds will be from the south, increasing to 10 KTS this
afternoon persisting into the overnight hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for NEZ204-210.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler/Kulik