564
FXUS63 KLBF 232329
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
529 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A system will cross the area tonight into Monday. Light rain
  is expected, especially across southwest into central
  Nebraska. Some fog is also expected.

- Cooler but mainly dry weather is expected Thanksgiving week
  (through Friday). Strong, gusty northwest winds are expected
  Tuesday behind a cold front.

- Watching a potential system next weekend. At this time
  confidence is low regarding how things will evolve regarding
  snow chances and amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An upper level low pressure system will move from the southern
Rockies into the central plains tonight into Monday. A closed mid-
level circulation will cross the area during this time. This system
brings with it an anomalous amount of mid and upper level moisture.
There is actually a Pacific tap of from off the western coast of
Mexico...with PWATS increasing to much above normal values (on the
order of 200%) tonight. There`s a decent amount of low-level
moisture being drawn northward as well from the southern plains. Dew
points have already climbed into the lower and mid 40s across
southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Despite the high moisture
content, the system will be in the occluding and weakening phase
when it reaches our area tonight. Still expecting some rain through,
with ENS ensemble probabilities of at least 1/10 of an inch of
rainfall (50-80%) running along a fairly narrow axis, from near the
Grant/Ogallala area northeastward through North Platte and toward
O`Neill. There will be a sharp gradient (cut off line) to receiving
no precipitation across the northern Sandhills, and especially into
the central and western portions of north central Nebraska. Most of
the precipitation will fall tonight, as the mid-level FGEN rapidly
decreases after sunrise Monday.

Fog is expected to develop across portions of southwest into central
Nebraska overnight. It could become locally dense in spots, but not
expecting it to be widespread enough for any type of advisory at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Northwest flow aloft develops Tuesday through Friday. A shortwave
will amplify as it crosses the northern plains Tuesday. Looks like a
decent shot of snow will occur across North Dakota, but little in
the way of precipitation is expected across our area. It will become
windy Tuesday as a cold front surges southeastward through the area.
Area sounding profiles indicate 45-50 mph gusts appear likely. H85
flow peaks early afternoon...and is around 55-60 kts across northern
Nebraska. Flow is nearly uni-directional...and with the deep mixing
will have to entertain the idea of locally stronger gusts. Winds
will diminish significantly by Wednesday...and appears that no
travel delays or issues are anticipated for the busiest travel day
of the year. Overall, with the northwest flow pattern persisting
through Friday, precipitation chances after tonight are not
anticipated. Temperatures will average somewhat below average behind
the cold frontal passage Tuesday. Highs Tuesday through Friday will
range from the 30s across portions of north central Nebraska to the
40s across southwest Nebraska into the Panhandle.

By Saturday a system may dive southward through the central Rockies,
perhaps bringing a chance for snow to the area. Continues to be
much model/ensemble uncertainty on how the pattern will evolve and
overall confidence is low. Stay tuned as it will be a busy weekend
travel wise.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Stratus and rain showers are tracking north across western Kansas
this evening, which will impact portions of southwest and central
Nebraska overnight. As the stratus moves into the region, conditions
are expected to quickly drop from VFR to MVFR and IFR this evening.
Overnight, LIFR conditions will be possible across portions of
southwest Nebraska, largely driven by low ceilings. Further north,
conditions are expected to remain VFR, as drier air will limit
precipitation potential. Winds remain light overnight in variable
directions across the region. With light winds and recent
precipitation, patchy fog will be possible in the early morning
hours, especially across southwest Nebraska. Conditions are expected
to improve by the afternoon, with a return to VFR conditions
possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie