


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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795 FXUS63 KLBF 152046 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 346 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible each day Wednesday and Thursday for portions of western and central Nebraska. - Outside of Saturday, dry conditions largely return for the weekend into early next week, potentially leading to some fire weather concerns. - A progressive pattern should allow for recurring frontal passages leading to wavering day to day temperatures in the extended. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The main concern in the short term revolves around the threat for severe thunderstorms across the Panhandle later this afternoon and evening. Expansive fog/low stratus continues to envelope much of northern Nebraska early this afternoon. Further south, a northward lifting warm front has allowed for rapidly clearing skies and strengthening southerly winds. Temperatures as a result were quickly to climb into the 70s whereas easterly flow north of this front helped maintain upslope moist flow and temperatures struggling to climb out of the 50s. Low-level flow backing to the southeast across the southern Panhandle will lead to increasing lift off the higher terrain to the west. As temperatures climb to the upper 60s and lower 70s beneath modest mid-level lapse rates, instability will climb to the tune of 1000-1500 j/kg MUCAPE. Deep-layer shear will be strong as the area remains under the influence of a 40+ knot h5 speed max. CAMs advertise scattered convection moving out of northeast Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle. Given the background environment, do believe a few severe storms are possible. The main concern would primarily isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Given largely south- southwest to north-northeast storm motions, little if any coverage is expected east of Highway 61. Instability should fall off this evening though do not expect it to completely wane. That said, the majority of low-level forcing via a developing LLJ, upper-level diffluence, and passing PV anomaly will focus further north and so have PoPs decreasing late into the evening as a result. Lows tonight should fall into the lower 50s west to near 60F east. This will be significantly above normal with values roughly 20-25F above normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Thursday...additional severe thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime into the early evening. A weak surface low will develop over northeast Colorado late Wednesday night. This feature will gradually shift northeast with central low pressure settling over central South Dakota by late morning Thursday. This will draw a weak cool front south into western Nebraska and result in a fairly large temperature spread with lower 60s to the west and middle to upper 70s to the east. Southerly flow across the warm sector will remain strong with dew points climbing into the middle 50s. While scattered showers and general thunderstorms are possible as early as the morning within the strong warm air advection, attention quickly turns to afternoon convection. Storms should develop in response to increasing low- level convergence and the passing trough axis in the late afternoon. While lapse rates aloft do not appear to be as impressive, closer to 6.5-7 C/km, instability should again be sufficient to support stronger updrafts with a narrow plume of 1500-2500 j/kg MUCAPE. With continued strong deep-layer shear as h5 flow climbs to 50-60 knots, a few rotating updrafts cannot be ruled out. The main concerns will be primarily isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Am also concerned about some locally heavy rainfall given the potential for training storms along a slow to move frontal boundary. HREF localized probability-matched mean QPF values show a narrow swath of 1.00"+ with a few locations potentially reaching 2.00". While no Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place, can`t rule out some localized hydro concerns with rain rates potentially approaching 1"/hour for brief stints. Similar to Wednesday, instability should wane through the evening and as forcing diminishes, the window for severe thunderstorms should end by mid-evening and rain/thunderstorms should exit the area by daybreak Friday. Overnight lows should vary widely middle 30s for our west in the drier post-frontal airmass but closer to the lower 50s for our eastern zones. Friday into early next week...a fairly convoluted evolution of the upper-level pattern will persist into the weekend. Shortwave ridging will settle into the Southeast CONUS as the now departing trough quickly lifts north into southern Canada. An elongated trough will stretch southwest into southern California as a secondary shortwave trough tracks southeast out of the Pacific Northwest and into the central Rockies. This feature will eject onto the Plains on Saturday and will break up what should be an otherwise dry weekend. Have inherited some low-end PoPs (< 35%) across our northern zones and believe this is adequate given signals in individual ECWMF/GFS ensemble solutions. This will coincide with another passing cool front and reinforcing cooler temperatures. This will carryover into Sunday morning where potential remains for widespread frost/freeze conditions. NBM probabilities of falling below 32F have increased with 70-90% for the western Sandhills (90%+ for lows below 36F for all west of Highway 183). Temperatures will likely rebound quickly as daytime highs return to the upper 60s to lower 70s. As shortwave ridging builds in through Sunday into Monday, subsequent breakdown will lead to some increased fire weather concerns. For now, greatest overlap of winds and humidity will be Sunday though winds strengthen slightly on Monday. Will need to monitor closely going forward. Tuesday and beyond...the evolution of the extended period remains somewhat in question. Most NWP guidance suggests a broad h5 cutoff settling over the Great Lakes region with upstream ridging forming over the western CONUS. Within this ridge, a mid-level disturbance will stall off the coast of southern California. before beginning to phase back into the flow around Thursday. Within broad northwesterly flow locally, glancing blows of cooler air will lead to wavering day- to-day temperatures. At this time, additional sub-freezing overnight lows will be possible but daytime temperatures should continue to hug more seasonable values through the end of the valid forecast period. Overall though, as ridge axis approaches by the following weekend, temperatures should once again return to above normal values. This thinking is consistent with the latest CPC outlook favoring above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A low pressure system is located over northeastern Colorado with a stationary front tracking across the Sandhills this afternoon. North of the stationary front, IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to persist, with a dense stratus shield causing low ceilings and patch fog continuing to cause visibility issues. For areas south of the front, VFR conditions are observed and expected to persist through the TAF period. The nearby low will also cause gusty southerly winds throughout the afternoon and evening across most of the region. Tonight, as the front lifts north, should see some improvement in conditions across northern Nebraska. However, a strong low level jet develops, causing LLWS concerns across all of western and north central Nebraska this evening through mid morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...Richie