795
FXUS63 KLBF 152046
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible each day Wednesday and
  Thursday for portions of western and central Nebraska.

- Outside of Saturday, dry conditions largely return for the
  weekend into early next week, potentially leading to some
  fire weather concerns.

- A progressive pattern should allow for recurring frontal
  passages leading to wavering day to day temperatures in the
  extended.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The main concern in the short term revolves around the threat for
severe thunderstorms across the Panhandle later this afternoon and
evening.

Expansive fog/low stratus continues to envelope much of northern
Nebraska early this afternoon. Further south, a northward lifting
warm front has allowed for rapidly clearing skies and strengthening
southerly winds. Temperatures as a result were quickly to climb into
the 70s whereas easterly flow north of this front helped maintain
upslope moist flow and temperatures struggling to climb out of the
50s. Low-level flow backing to the southeast across the southern
Panhandle will lead to increasing lift off the higher terrain to the
west. As temperatures climb to the upper 60s and lower 70s beneath
modest mid-level lapse rates, instability will climb to the tune of
1000-1500 j/kg MUCAPE. Deep-layer shear will be strong as the area
remains under the influence of a 40+ knot h5 speed max. CAMs
advertise scattered convection moving out of northeast Colorado into
the Nebraska Panhandle. Given the background environment, do believe
a few severe storms are possible. The main concern would primarily
isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Given largely south-
southwest to north-northeast storm motions, little if any coverage
is expected east of Highway 61. Instability should fall off this
evening though do not expect it to completely wane. That said, the
majority of low-level forcing via a developing LLJ, upper-level
diffluence, and passing PV anomaly will focus further north and so
have PoPs decreasing late into the evening as a result. Lows tonight
should fall into the lower 50s west to near 60F east. This will be
significantly above normal with values roughly 20-25F above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thursday...additional severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the daytime into the early evening. A weak surface low will develop
over northeast Colorado late Wednesday night. This feature will
gradually shift northeast with central low pressure settling over
central South Dakota by late morning Thursday. This will draw a weak
cool front south into western Nebraska and result in a fairly large
temperature spread with lower 60s to the west and middle to upper
70s to the east.

Southerly flow across the warm sector will remain strong with dew
points climbing into the middle 50s. While scattered showers and
general thunderstorms are possible as early as the morning within
the strong warm air advection, attention quickly turns to afternoon
convection. Storms should develop in response to increasing low-
level convergence and the passing trough axis in the late afternoon.
While lapse rates aloft do not appear to be as impressive, closer to
6.5-7 C/km, instability should again be sufficient to support
stronger updrafts with a narrow plume of 1500-2500 j/kg MUCAPE. With
continued strong deep-layer shear as h5 flow climbs to 50-60 knots,
a few rotating updrafts cannot be ruled out. The main concerns will
be primarily isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Am also
concerned about some locally heavy rainfall given the potential for
training storms along a slow to move frontal boundary. HREF
localized probability-matched mean QPF values show a narrow swath of
1.00"+ with a few locations potentially reaching 2.00". While no
Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place, can`t rule out some
localized hydro concerns with rain rates potentially approaching
1"/hour for brief stints. Similar to Wednesday, instability should
wane through the evening and as forcing diminishes, the window for
severe thunderstorms should end by mid-evening and
rain/thunderstorms should exit the area by daybreak Friday.
Overnight lows should vary widely middle 30s for our west in the
drier post-frontal airmass but closer to the lower 50s for our
eastern zones.

Friday into early next week...a fairly convoluted evolution of the
upper-level pattern will persist into the weekend. Shortwave ridging
will settle into the Southeast CONUS as the now departing trough
quickly lifts north into southern Canada. An elongated trough will
stretch southwest into southern California as a secondary shortwave
trough tracks southeast out of the Pacific Northwest and into the
central Rockies. This feature will eject onto the Plains on Saturday
and will break up what should be an otherwise dry weekend. Have
inherited some low-end PoPs (< 35%) across our northern zones and
believe this is adequate given signals in individual ECWMF/GFS
ensemble solutions. This will coincide with another passing cool
front and reinforcing cooler temperatures. This will carryover into
Sunday morning where potential remains for widespread frost/freeze
conditions. NBM probabilities of falling below 32F have increased
with 70-90% for the western Sandhills (90%+ for lows below 36F for
all west of Highway 183). Temperatures will likely rebound quickly
as daytime highs return to the upper 60s to lower 70s. As shortwave
ridging builds in through Sunday into Monday, subsequent breakdown
will lead to some increased fire weather concerns. For now, greatest
overlap of winds and humidity will be Sunday though winds strengthen
slightly on Monday. Will need to monitor closely going forward.

Tuesday and beyond...the evolution of the extended period remains
somewhat in question. Most NWP guidance suggests a broad h5 cutoff
settling over the Great Lakes region with upstream ridging forming
over the western CONUS. Within this ridge, a mid-level disturbance
will stall off the coast of southern California. before beginning to
phase back into the flow around Thursday. Within broad northwesterly
flow locally, glancing blows of cooler air will lead to wavering day-
to-day temperatures. At this time, additional sub-freezing overnight
lows will be possible but daytime temperatures should continue to
hug more seasonable values through the end of the valid forecast
period. Overall though, as ridge axis approaches by the following
weekend, temperatures should once again return to above normal
values. This thinking is consistent with the latest CPC outlook
favoring above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A low pressure system is located over northeastern Colorado with a
stationary front tracking across the Sandhills this afternoon. North
of the stationary front, IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to
persist, with a dense stratus shield causing low ceilings and patch
fog continuing to cause visibility issues. For areas south of the
front, VFR conditions are observed and expected to persist through
the TAF period. The nearby low will also cause gusty southerly winds
throughout the afternoon and evening across most of the region.
Tonight, as the front lifts north, should see some improvement in
conditions across northern Nebraska. However, a strong low level jet
develops, causing LLWS concerns across all of western and north
central Nebraska this evening through mid morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Richie