954
FXUS63 KLBF 290811
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain above average this week, with highs in
  the 80s expected each day.

- Breezy conditions continue through Tuesday, with strong
  southerly winds gusting up to 30 mph. Gusty winds are possible
  again on Wednesday.

- Little to no precipitation is expected this week, as the low
  layers of the atmosphere remain dry. Chances for precipitation
  increase this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

The northern jet stream remains in a ridge pattern across the
western United States, with the southern jet bringing a trough
across Colorado and New Mexico. This bring strong southerly flow
aloft, as well as a moisture transport above the 700 mb layer. At
the surface, a low pressure system and frontal boundaries are
stalled out across northern South Dakota. A secondary low is located
over the Nebraska Panhandle, with a surface trough connecting the
two systems.

Forecast soundings across western and north central Nebraska this
afternoon again show potential for strong mixing in the boundary
layer, allowing for more strong, southerly wind gusts throughout the
afternoon, with peak gusts up to 30 mph. The southerly advection
will also contribute to warmer temperatures this afternoon, with
highs in the mid 80s across most of the region. As previously
mentioned, the southerly flow aloft brings a moisture transport
above the 700 mb layer, which will help keep skies partly cloudy
this afternoon. Further to the west, isolated showers are
expected across eastern Colorado and Wyoming. However, given the
very dry low layers, if any showers were to track into the
Panhandle, any precipitation is likely to evaporate prior to
reaching the surface. With that in mind, have kept the low
chance for precipitation in the forecast (less than 14 percent
chance) across portions of southwest Nebraska and the southern
Panhandle this evening.

The surface trough is expected to remain along the Wyoming-Nebraska
border through Tuesday. This will set up a nearly identical forecast
on Tuesday, with highs climbing again into the 80s and gusty
southerly winds. Again, a very dry low layer is expected across the
region, which will continue to inhibit any precipitation chances
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

An upper level trough tracks across the West Coast on Wednesday,
which will help flatten the ridge across the western United States.
However, the upper level flow is expected to remain north of the
region, keeping highs in the 80s through the end of the week.
Precipitation chances also remain limited through the end of the
week. Southerly winds continue through the week, however, winds are
expected to become less gusty, with peak gusts up to 25 mph mostly
across portions of north central Nebraska.

By the weekend, a deeper upper level trough is expected to track
into the region. This trough is expected to generate a few surface
systems, increasing precipitation chances this weekend. Ensembles
continue to highlight the weekend with better chances for
measureable rain across the region, bringing a 40 to 70 percent
chance across portions of the region. The latest NBM reflects this
as well, trending precipitation chances back above 30 percent this
weekend. Along with precipitation, the trough will usher in a return
of more seasonal temperatures, with highs trending to the upper 60s
and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday night
across western and north central Nebraska. Southerly LLWS
persists through sunrise Monday morning for much of the area.

Increasing high clouds are then expected through the day,
though should be of limited impact. Winds strengthen from the
south Monday afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30kts expected for
all area terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Brown