066
FXUS63 KLBF 052034
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
334 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will be possible late tonight and into Monday morning.

- Cool temperatures Monday will be followed by a warming trend
  Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday through the end of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A cold front is making it`s way southeastward across the area this
afternoon. An area of lower clouds and overcast conditions have
spread over portions of northern Nebraska and the Sandhills behind
the frontal boundary. The front will settle south of the area across
Kansas tonight. Convection is likely to develop north of the
boundary overnight as lift/FGEN increase north of the front as the
LLJ intensifies to the south of the boundary. Instability is very
weak across our area, and expecting the precipitation to be showery
in nature with little chance of any thunder. A narrow band of more
persistent light to perhaps moderate rain should develop across
northwest into portions of north central Nebraska. This band will be
largely driven by favorable jet dynamics helping enhance lift across
that area. As the front settles farther to the south into Kansas
Monday, precipitation will quickly end during the morning hours with
dry weather expected by Monday afternoon. Cloud cover will linger
however, and it will be quite cool, with highs only in the 50s.

Surface high pressure will settle southeastward and be centered
across the area by Tuesday morning. Skies will clear and winds will
be light. Although not expecting any widespread frost, there could
possibly be a bit of patchy frost, especially across northwest
Nebraska. Will have to monitor the low temperatures Monday
night/Tuesday morning. As of now the lowest is 36 which would
minimize the frost potential.

As the surface high shifts east of the area Tuesday, southerly low-
level flow will gradually develop. Weak WAA will add about 10
degrees to highs Tuesday, with mid 60s expected at most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Ridging aloft begins to build northward through the plains on
Wednesday. Ridging will continue to amplify Thursday into Friday as
a deep upper trough starts to dig southward along the west coast. By
Saturday the ridge will shift eastward slightly as the west coast
upper trough begins to eject northeastward toward the northern
Rockies Saturday and into Canada by Sunday. Overall this looks to be
a dry and very mild pattern for our area through Saturday. Highs
will range from near 70 Wednesday and warm into the mid 70s to lower
80s Thursday through Saturday. Gusty south winds appear they could
develop Saturday, but humidity seems to remain only marginally low
as some low-level moisture is returned northward into the area on
the southerly flow. At this time, overall fire weather concerns in
the extended look to remain generally on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected at times through the TAF period
across northern Nebraska, with MFVR ceilings developing across
central into southwest Nebraska late tonight and continuing into
Monday morning. Gusty north winds this afternoon will decrease
and become northeast tonight. Scattered areas of light rain and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible late tonight
across the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor