Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
674 FXUS64 KLCH 151806 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1206 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense possible again Sunday morning. - Persistent weather pattern will continue into early next week with above normal temperatures and humidity. - Precipitation chances return Wednesday ahead of the next cold front that will move through the area late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 High pressure dominates the southeast states and northern gulf coast this Saturday. The ridge is centered over north FL / south GA with a south flow over the local region around the ridge and ahead of a weak plains low. While the low lvl flow continues to increase moisture, a ridge aloft that stretches in from Mexico and the southern gulf is keeping convection suppressed. The pattern is not expected to change through the short term. Above normal temperatures with humid and foggy nights will remain in place. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 The ridge aloft will gradually weaken at the beginning of the long term. A short wave will move across the northern plains Tuesday. Locally, the ridge aloft will weaken somewhat Tuesday afternoon as the short wave passes well north. There is an outside chance of a streamer shower or two by Tuesday afternoon in SE TX, but chances look slim, just not 0. Late next week the pattern my finally shift as a stronger system moves into California. An upper low will cross the southern Rockies Thursday with rain chances ramping up along the gulf coast ahead of the disturbance. The Pacific front may push through the area at the end of the week with a modest cool down into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR conditions are anticipated through early evening, however fog is expected again tonight. LIFR vis may occur late tonight through sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 High pressure centered over the northeastern gulf will ridge into the coastal waters through the weekend into early next week. This will keep mainly light onshore winds and low seas. Onshore flow will increase somewhat by the middle part of next week as low pressure forms over the Southern Plains. The next chance for any significant shower activity will be Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Southerly winds off the Gulf will keep warm and humid conditions in place through the weekend into early next week. An upper level high over the region will keep any significant rain chance out of the forecast through early next week. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be over 50 percent. Areas of fog being patchy dense, especially near locations with residual smoke will be possible at night and during the early morning hours through the weekend. The next chance for any significant rainfall will be during the middle to latter part of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 57 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 62 82 63 81 / 0 0 10 10 LFT 60 82 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 62 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05