Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
981 FXUS64 KLCH 241153 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 553 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A warm front will move across the forecast area today bringing a warm and moist Gulf air inland. - Potential for strong to some severe storms this evening through tonight as an upper level disturbance works with a moist and unstable atmosphere. - A cold front will move through on Tuesday bringing drier and seasonably cool conditions for Thanksgiving. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Weak ridging continues overhead this morning although with significant high clouds streaming across the region on the westerly flow. These high clouds and dewpoint depressions of 3-5 degrees will prevent any fog formation this morning (although some intermittent visibility reducing smoke has been observed ivo the Beaumont airport). Surface high pressure will slide east of the area Monday lifting a warm front out of the gulf by late morning. A tropical airmass behind the front will lift dewpoints quickly from the mid 50s to near 70 during the afternoon. An upper level low moving across the southern plains will begin to interact with this moisture Monday afternoon into Monday night producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Convection will increase Monday night into Tuesday morning as a strong cold front moves through the region. Ensembles are depicting a decent severe weather environment setting up Monday night into early Tuesday with forecast CAPE between 1400-1600 J/KG and 40-50 knots of 0-6 km shear. Discreet supercells/clusters will have the potential to develop ahead of the frontal boundary with tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds all possible with any of these. SPC has highlighted much of Southeast Texas and parts of central Louisiana in a slight risk for severe storms and wouldn`t be surprised to see a tornado watch issued for these areas by late Monday afternoon into Monday night. The frontal boundary is expected to clear the area by early Tuesday afternoon with CAA developing Tuesday afternoon/evening dropping lows Wednesday morning into the mid 50s. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A second, dry boundary will push through the area Wednesday with stronger northerly winds developing in it`s wake advecting even cooler air into the region Wednesday night into Thanksgiving with wake up temperatures Thursday morning ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. High pressure slides east of the region Friday turning winds back out of the southeast which will begin to moderate the air mass with lows climbing back into the 60s next weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Area of low SCT to BKN ceilings expected through the mid morning hours, lifting toward VFR ceilings through remaining morning hours. East winds will become SE - S by local noon. Early afternoon vicinity thunderstorms are possible where lower MVFR ceilings can be expected to tempo. Evening hours after 8PM LT will have line of segmented TSRA to move east passing LFT / ARA around 7AM Tuesday. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 79 64 78 51 / 50 70 50 10 LCH 81 67 80 55 / 50 60 50 10 LFT 81 67 81 56 / 30 50 70 20 BPT 82 67 81 55 / 40 50 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...30