Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
983 FXUS64 KLCH 181139 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 639 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Onshore flow will slowly filter Gulf moisture inland through this evening. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather as scattered storms move through the area today. - A frontal boundary will shift winds offshore overnight into tomorrow leading to mild highs followed by cool lows Sunday night. - Mild and mainly dry weather can be expected throughout the work week ahead as high pressure is forecast to build and remain in place. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 High pressure continues to migrate over the Florida allowing a decent southerly fetch of warm air and moisture advection over the area today. Meanwhile, a shortwave over the Midwest is developing a surface low and associated cold front over the central Plains. As the upper level gradient tightens through the afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop inland close toward the noon hour. Coverage increases toward the I-49 and beyond during the midafternoon hours. It is worth noting as dewpoints climb into the low 70`s, an axis of favorable MLCAPE close to 1800 J/kg will develop ahead of the cold front. Much of the activity over SETX and extreme SWLA will take place during the afternoon to early evening hours. During which, a few storms may reach severe criteria where SPC has outlined a Marginal risk along / north of the I-10 corridor. Primary threat remains damaging winds within thunderstorms. It is highly encouraged for those who attend outdoor events today to bring rain gear and have a method to check up on the weather or receive warnings. That being said, we are not looking at a significant outbreak situation. However, higher atmospheric lapse rates, currently around 7.8C/km per today`s 18th/00Z sounding, along with the destabilization taking place will support the potential for a few strong storms. Those stronger storms still are best favored over CenLA and areas to the north. Otherwise, temperatures will climb to the upper 80`s areawide with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. The actual cold front will move through after majority of the precipitation has cleared the region late tonight, but Hi-Res guidance suggests the potential for a few fast moving showers/storms that may develop along the boundary as it pushes offshore Sunday morning. Hereafter, a sharp, but brief cool down will be observed. Breezy north winds will drive dry cold air advection offshore with highs in the upper 70`s to low 80`s. Sunday night, skies will be clear as winds begin to tamper down leading to radiational cooling. Much of the forecast area will drop down in the 50`s with the potential of upper 40`s for some backyards across CenLA. Monday morning will start off cool, but quickly warm toward the low 80`s by mid afternoon as winds begin to shift on shore. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Warmer conditions can be expected Tuesday under established onshore flow. However, this appears to be the warmest day of the week ahead, before another dry cold front migrates through the forecast area. While chances of rain are very low, this pattern will bring back mild conditions again throughout Wednesday with cool lows in the mid 50`s. High pressure will build from the Plains to the Mississippi Gulf Coast through Thursday before broadening Friday. Temperatures will keep to the low 80`s for highs during the remainder of the week with slim chances for precipitation. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Southeasterly winds will increase this morning in response to an approaching cold front. The interaction of this frontal boundary with tropical air streaming in from the gulf will produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. A brief lull in storms may occur late this evening prior to the approach of a squall line which is expected to develop along the leading edge of the front. This squall will move through the region from north to south between 00Z and 09Z Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end following the frontal passage with winds shifting out of the northwest. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Onshore winds are forecast to pickup this morning with gusts around 15-18 kts by the afternoon. Now through the weekend, waves will build 2 - 4 ft. Rain chances will continue until the passage of a cold front early Sunday. Brief, but enhanced, offshore flow will take place before resuming onshore Monday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Onshore flow and moisture advection will keep RH above 60% through this afternoon. Scattered rainfall is expected, so some locations may avoid a wetting rainfall. Winds are forecast to shift out of the north early Sunday morning and remain breezy through the evening. Onshore flow will gradually reestablish Monday. Currently, multiple parishes have burn bans in place across Acadiana along with counties in southeast Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 89 63 76 46 / 70 80 0 0 LCH 86 69 82 54 / 70 60 10 0 LFT 85 69 81 51 / 70 70 10 0 BPT 87 68 83 56 / 50 40 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...66