Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
036 FXUS64 KLCH 060604 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 104 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will increase through Monday as a weak surface low and boundary move inland. Highest chances should be along and east of I-49. - The low moves off to the north with only isolated rain chances left in its wake Tuesday. - A weak cold front will move into the area later in the week bringing increasingly drier conditions again by Thursday. This will reduce rain chances while daytime highs will remain on the warm side and above normal. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Latest surface analysis indicates weak low pressure and associated broad trof are situated just along the southwest Louisiana coastline. An area of showers associated with this troffing feature are ongoing from near Morgan City north to Baton Rouge and east towards New Orleans along a confluence boundary induced by elevated onshore winds hitting land friction. This "piling up" of winds is acting to build up showers and so a corridor of heavy rain may develop over the next few hours within the aforementioned areas. PWATs east of LFT to AEX are being analyzed at 2.00"+, which is higher than the 90th percentile for this day, climatologically. This means there could be some spots getting dunked on, rain wise, but most rain should fall right overtop and east of the Atchafalaya Basin. The trof will move inland along the TX/LA border through the morning hours. A few isolated showers will be possible west of 49 through the morning hours, but largely expect rain to stay along and east of 49. As we move towards afternoon there could be an isolated thunderstorm somewhere between Lafayette and Alexandria, this is not a big lightning producing setup. The low lifts north and front washes out by Tuesday. High pressure moving across the north central US will result in northerly flow Tuesday bringing some dry but not cooler air back into the region. High pressure moving into the region will staunch any remaining chances for the mid week. Temps will hover in the upper 80s to around 90. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Cool, dry air moves down into the central US and northern southeast states in mass Wednesday. The large high pressure driving this airmass quickly moves east by end of day Wednesday, thus flow cuts off by Thursday and the cooler air stalls just north of the coastline. While dry air will filter into the region, forced on subsidence developing with rising heights aloft, don`t anticipate a big cooldown or notable rain chances in the longterm period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Scattered showers and CIGs ranging from 2000 ft to 3500 feet are spread over the region. This is in response to the boundary in north Gulf waters gaining some organization with trof overhead before it moves inland this morning. Expect CIGs to continue on a downward trend and there will likely be a decent smattering of ground fog (3 to 4SM) as moisture continues surging in overnight. Most rain showers will be contained to the I49 corridor and east today, which is reflected in area TAFs. Winds should prevail from the east northeast to east before becoming more southerly with the northward march of the boundary Monday daytime. There will likely be an increased coverage of convection at east terminals since the trof should come onshore along the TX/LA line. Not anticipating organized severe weather with any stronger cells. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Sea conditions should be improving as boundary moves inland and winds diminish. Onshore flow develops today and will prevail through the coming days. Ridging aloft and dry air moving into the region will keep the forecast dry. Winds and seas do appear to pickup once again later in the week when a pseudo cold front down into coastal waters. Advisory conditions will be possible as early as Thursday at sunrise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Weak surface trof will move onshore this morning right near the Texas/Louisiana state line. A broad area of showers is developing and moving into south central Louisiana, but based on the location of the trof, rainfall should largely be contained to the I-49 corridor and east. Isolated to scattered rain chances are possible to the west, with southeast Texas having the lowest chances. The trof moves north today and slightly drier air moves back in. Daytime minimum RH values should hover in the 45 to 50 percent range each day through the midweek. A reinforcing round of dry air is expected to move in late in the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 87 68 90 68 / 40 10 20 10 LCH 88 72 90 72 / 20 10 20 10 LFT 87 72 89 71 / 40 0 20 10 BPT 89 73 90 71 / 10 10 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11