Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
973 FXUS64 KLCH 092321 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 521 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A moderation in temperatures is expected this afternoon into Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east and light winds return off the Gulf. - A dry cold front is expected late Wednesday before temperatures quickly moderate again by the end of the week with no significant chance for rainfall. - Another cold front is scheduled for Sunday that may bring a slight chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A large surface ridge of high pressure has migrated over the Carolinas this afternoon with a notable low level temperature inversion seen on the 18Z upper air sounding. With that said, winds are now light and variable across the forecast area as the pressure gradient has become slack. Mixing should allow skies to remain mostly clear tonight. Low level winds will shift onshore leading to the potential of patchy fog though confidence is not strong for dense fog at this time. We`ll warm to the upper 60`s and low 70`s Wednesday as winds shift out of the west with continued dry weather in the forecast through the evening hours with the passage of a cold front. Again, not expecting any precipitation, just brief re- establishment of varying northerly flow with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 60`s expected the following day, Thursday. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Early Friday morning winds become onshore once again ahead of a weak upper level disturbance moving east across northern Mexico into the western Gulf. While there`s some attempt to bring rainfall into the region. Poor lapse rates in the mid levels accompanied by negligible forecast CAPE really hinders the potential for convection and lift within the lower atmosphere. However, surface temperatures and dewpoints will increase along with cloud coverage into the early weekend-likely trending 12-15F above norms for mid December with a similar margin for lows. PoPs are included for Saturday night into Sunday given the chance this trough shifts further north allowing few isolated to scattered showers to develop inland. Will stress these are low end chances and subject to change as this pattern becomes a little less unsettled. Meanwhile strong high pressure will develop over the Heartland and descend southward to the coast. CAA will develop through Sunday across the forecast area leading to onshore winds and more seasonable temperatures to start the following work week. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Clear skies and very light southerly winds can be expected through the night. Moisture return with the southerly flow looks meager and shallow. Therefore, only expect some patchy shallow ground fog that may affect the KLCH/KBPT terminals with MVFR conditions after 10/08z. A weak cold front is expected to move through the forecast area after 10/18z on Wednesday. With lack significant moisture any notice of the passage will be a wind shift with winds backing from the southwest to the northwest. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 High pressure centered over the Carolinas has shifted the pattern locally to light easterly flow over the coastal waters, becoming light southerly overnight into Wednesday. A weak dry cold front will move into the coastal waters late Wednesday to bring a brief period of light to modest offshore winds before winds again become onshore by the end of the week. No significant shower activity is expected through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Light southerly winds to return this evening, at times variable and calm, along with that some shallow Gulf moisture. Minimum afternoon relative humidity will be near 60 percent on Wednesday. A weak cold front will introduce lower afternoon RH Thursday, ranging as low as 40 - 50%. By the end of the work week southerly flow returns with Gulf moisture. Despite the increase in moisture, no significant rain is expected over the next several days. There will be a chance for some patchy shallow fog during the late night and early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 37 66 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 45 71 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 41 69 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 46 71 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07