Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
337 FXUS64 KLIX 231801 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1201 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - A cold front will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to the area Monday night through Tuesday. A few strong storms are possible Monday night into Tuesday. - A significant cool down, to near normal, for Thanksgiving Day through Friday night. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Upper ridge extended from the western Gulf through the central Plains States this morning. An upper trough was over new England and a closed low was centered over Arizona. At the surface, a cold frontal boundary was off the Louisiana coast, with high pressure centered near Tulsa. Cold advection cloud cover was over southwest Mississippi with the rest of the area seeing partly to mostly sunny skies. Late morning temperatures were generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s, although McComb was at 57 at 11 AM CST, due to low clouds remaining over the area. The upper ridge will progress eastward to near the Florida West Coast by Monday afternoon. The Arizona upper low will open up and lift northeastward to Kansas at that time. As the surface high pressure shifts eastward, low level flow will turn onshore during the day tomorrow, lifting the frontal boundary back to the north and increasing moisture levels. Precipitable water values near the 25th percentile today (0.55 inches) will increase to near the 90th percentile (1.6 inches) by sunset Monday. While we should start to see higher clouds tonight, lower clouds probably won`t onset until tomorrow afternoon. We`re unlikely to see measurable precipitation during the day Monday, and the lower clouds probably will not arrive soon enough to prevent high temperatures from reaching 80 degrees again. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Main concerns during the long term period will be a marginal threat of severe weather across northern portions of the area from very late Monday night through the first half of Tuesday, followed by significantly cooler conditions late Wednesday through Friday. The shortwave trough over Kansas tomorrow afternoon will lift quickly into the southern Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon. There may be a brief window late Monday night into Tuesday morning where parameters could be sufficient for strong to severe storms to develop across the northern half of the CWA before the low level jet pulls to the north and east of the area. MUCAPE values briefly reach 1000 J/kg and mid level lapse rates approaching 7C/km, with SRH values near 200 before low level moisture starts diminishing again. Could see a few showers as early as perhaps midnight Monday night, but any threat of deeper convection probably would be in the 09z-18z time frame Tuesday. Hopes for significant rainfall aren`t particularly high, and at this point, rainfall would actually be helpful. Just about the entire CWA has seen less than 0.25 inches of rain in November. Forecast rain amounts are expected to be less than an inch in our area, and it is entirely possible that some portions of the area remain dry. Actual frontal passage probably will not occur until the overnight hours Tuesday night, when much drier air arrives. Dew points that will be in the mid and upper 60s on Tuesday will be in the 30s by Thanksgiving Day across most or all of the area. With partly to mostly sunny skies in place Wednesday and northerly winds, temperatures could still get into the 70s for highs, but humidity levels will be noticeably lower than tomorrow and Tuesday. Thanksgiving Day and Friday will be noticeably cooler than the first half of the week, but forecast temperatures will actually be right around normal with highs in the 60s. Friday morning will be a bit on the cool side with the usually cooler spots perhaps falling into the 30s. The upper trough pushes quickly into the Atlantic on Friday, and as the surface high shifts to the east of the area, onshore flow will gradually pull the frontal boundary back to our north by late Friday night into the weekend. Could see the threat for rain return as early as Saturday, with temperatures climbing back to well above normal levels for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Most terminals at VFR and likely to remain there fore the forecasts period. The exception to that is at KMCB, where cold advection clouds have held IFR clouds in place all morning. Not even confident that KMCB will improve beyond MVFR ceilings this afternoon, but if it occurs, it might be close to sunset. While most guidance not catching this well, recent runs of the HRRR indicate that low clouds could remain there most or all night. This may require future amendments at that particular terminal, with a non-zero threat at KHDC and KASD. Onshore flow returning at mid-morning Monday should mix out any lower conditions, with at least a brief period of VFR conditions. Moisture levels likely to increase significantly with MVFR ceilings possible by late afternoon Monday. Any TSRA unlikely to develop until beyond 03z Tuesday and more likely beyond 06z Tuesday at KMCB/KBTR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 High pressure will slide to the east of the area over the next 36 hours, and we may need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines by very late Monday afternoon and Monday night over some of the outer waters. Could even see a few thunderstorms very late Monday night into Tuesday morning over the protected waters. A period of stronger winds, perhaps requiring Small Craft Advisories, is expected beginning late Wednesday and continuing into the weekend, especially over the open waters. Not out of the question that we could see a few gusts to gale force Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 51 77 64 77 / 0 10 70 90 BTR 55 81 66 81 / 0 20 60 80 ASD 52 78 64 80 / 0 10 40 70 MSY 60 81 69 83 / 0 10 40 60 GPT 55 76 66 78 / 0 10 30 60 PQL 51 78 63 79 / 0 0 20 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW