Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
527 FXUS64 KLIX 142243 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 543 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Enjoy the last day or so of dry air as moisture slowly returns late week. - Early indications of another cold front arriving this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Upper level high pressure becomes pretty much centered right over our area today, which will dominate our weather pattern through the short term. With a northerly flow still in place, we will continue to see lower humidity through Tuesday and Wednesday. With many areas seeing RH values into the low 30s Tuesday, some potentially touch the upper 20s, and rising up some into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Into Thursday, we will see a little bit of a pattern shift as winds turn more E/ESE which starts to bring a little moisture back into the region. Though we see a little moisture creep back in, it will not be very much so no rain chances to be seen for the short term forecast period. In terms of temperatures, Tuesday will be fairly similar to Monday with afternoon highs in the mid 80s for most of the area. Wednesday and Thursday we will be a touch warmer, into the upper 80s for some, which will be back to around 5-7 degrees above climate normals for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Into the long term period we see a deepening trough in the desert SW gradually sliding eastward towards our region. This looks likely to bring a cold front through the area sometime over the weekend. While the GFS has the trough on the deeper side compared to the Euro, both do have the cold front as a feature which helps bring confidence that it will come through here. Out ahead of the front we will see increased southeasterly winds off the Gulf which will help advect plenty of moisture back into our area. With this, we see PoPs rise throughout the weekend, with Saturday seeing 35-45% for western areas and Sunday bringing 50% for the entire area. While the features seem to be in agreement there is still some slight differences in timing of rain and storms between the globals. The new run of the GFS has the bulk of the event through our area by late Saturday into the very early Sunday hours. Meanwhile the Euro does not really start much until that time. We will need to continue to monitor how the timing trends as that could cause a difference in the ability to see some stronger storms develop. SPC does highlight parts of northern Louisiana under a risk of severe weather, but mentions a decent amount of uncertainty about the threat more downstream. In advance of the front Beyond the rain and storms, this cold front will bring us back to average high temperatures again, into the mid 80s late in the weekend and early next week. Let`s hope one of these times the normal temperatures can stick around for longer than a day or two! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast on Thursday and Friday. Winds will remain more variable and below 10 knots while seas remain below 2 feet through Wednesday. Winds will turn more east-southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots on Thursday and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters over the weekend, and this will further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots on Saturday. Seas will respond and increase to 4 to 6 feet in the open Gulf waters. After the front moves through on Sunday, these higher winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 58 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 60 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 57 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 67 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 62 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 56 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...RW MARINE...HL