101
FXUS64 KLIX 031927
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
127 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Another storm system will bring widespread rain and embedded
   thunderstorms to the area Thursday through Friday night. There
   will be at least a low-end threat of heavy rain with this
   system and two-day rainfall totals are currently forecast in
   the 2-4 inch range, with locally higher amounts up to 7 inches
   possible. Please check the forecast for updates in the coming
   days as forecast rainfall totals and associated flood threats
   will continue to be refined.

 - Model guidance begins to disagree beyond this weekend, but
   there could be another shot of freezing temperatures Monday
   night and Tuesday morning north of the I-10/12 corridor. If
   that occurs, remember to protect people, pets, and plants from
   the freezing temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Surface high pressure across the mid to lower MS River Valley
will keep things mostly at bay today with slightly warmer
temperatures than yesterday. This is due to the high shifting
eastward throughout the day today, giving us east-southeasterly return
flow for today. Persistent cloud cover has kept temps slightly
cooler than expected today, with most places still only in the
upper 40s and low 50s. Highs are only expected to get into the mid
50s and low 60s today. We can thank the incoming upper-level
system for the mid-level cloud cover ongoing today.

As we get into tonight, the trough currently over the southwest
CONUS is expected to traverse the southern plains. In response to
this, a surface low is expected to form in the northwestern Gulf
late tonight and into Thursday morning. As the low tries to form,
we will get some isentropic upglide north of the low starting
shortly after midnight tonight. We will likely get steady light to
moderate rainfall after midnight. However, there is some
indications that 850mb frontogenesis looks to take place along an
east/west axis north of the main convective axis along the coast.
If this were to materialize and it does not get cut off from the
moisture by convective activity near the coast, that axis could
produce 3-5 inches of rain in that 24-hour period starting at
midnight tonight. However, if that gets cutoff from moisture, then
the bulk of the heavy rainfall will be with the convective
activity right along the coast. The most susceptible places for
flash flooding would be western areas along the I-10/12 corridor,
which includes Baton Rouge if that 850mb banding can materialize
since we will be near the daily max for PW tomorrow. So, although
we have a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for flash flooding, if
that banding were to materialize, we could see a more focused
flash flood risk where that banding sets up, especially if that is
over an urban area such as Baton Rouge.

The leading impulse causing the first batch of heavy rain is
expected to move eastward out of the area by Thursday night,
lowering the heavy rainfall risk going into the overnight hours.
We will still see some lingering scattered showers Thursday night,
but with the low moving eastward, expect rain coverage to be less
than Thursday morning. As the low moves eastward across the
western waters Thursday evening and into Friday morning, the
pressure gradient is expected to tighten across the western
waters, leading to elevated east-southeast winds. This, combined
with ongoing spring tides, will cause a minor coastal flood issue
at high tide Thursday night. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory
has been issued for mot of the eastern facing shores in SE LA and
coastal MS.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Winds are expected to relax heading into Friday as the leading
surface low makes its way across the panhandle of Florida and
southern Georgia. Even though the surface low is departing, the
upper-level flow is expected to stay southwesterly. This will help
stall both the surface front in the gulf as well as the elevated front
across the land areas in a more SW to NE orientation. Small pockets
of drier are at 850 and 700 mb look to slightly lower overall
moisture on Friday (PW will still be around the 90th percentile),
heavy rainfall does not see to be as big of an issue. Another
contributing factor to this is we will not have as strong of a
surface low on Friday to help focus the heavy rainfall. So,
instead of a localized ares of 3-5 inches like Thursday, we`re
looking at more of a confined area of 1-2 inches on Friday.

Another impulse in the southwesterly upper-level flow looks to
come across the area Saturday afternoon. However, at this time,
the fronts will likely be closer to the coast on Saturday, so the
axis of the most rainfall looks to be confined to the SE LA coast
on Saturday. Totals in that band will be very similar to Friday
with 1-2 inches expected.

As we get into the end of the weekend and start of the next work
week, ensemble clustering continues to indicate medium-range
guidance starts to really diverge. A lot of it is tied to what
happens with the system coming onshore the northwestern CONUS.
There seems to be a significant difference in strength of it, so
went with NBM for now. Regardless, the coldest night of next week
looks to be Monday night and Tuesday morning where another freeze
looks to be possible for areas north of I-12. With so much
uncertainty, it`s best to monitor the forecast for changes as we
get past this active stretch of weather this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Mainly high-level clouds have been plaguing the area this
afternoon as our next system takes shape west of here. Surface low
pressure development is expected to occur shortly after 06z
tonight across the northwestern Gulf. In response to that, a surge
of moisture is expected into the area at the same time, bringing
in widespread IFR ceilings across all terminals starting roughly
around 10-12z Thursday and lasting beyond the end of this forecast
cycle. With this low, we`re also expected periods of light to
moderate rainfall from 10z through the end of this forecast cycle.
To sum things up, expect IFR ceilings and constant periods of
light to moderate rain starting around 10z Thursday and lasting
through the end of this current forecast cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Weak low pressure will be developing along the Texas coast this
afternoon/evening and slowly drift east-northeast Thursday along the
coast. This will tighten the pressure gradient especially east of
the Mississippi River delta. Winds will increase with moderate to
strong east-southeast to easterly winds. This will have multiple
impacts with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Thursday into
Friday but the increase in onshore winds will combine with the
increasing tidal cycle at the end of the week likely leading to at
least some minor coastal flooding. Main concern will be east facing
shores of Orleans, St Bernard, Plaquemines, and far southeastern St
Tammany. In addition coastal Hancock around Waveland will also deal
with some minor coastal flooding Thursday night through Friday
morning. Winds will relax and return to offshore late Friday and
Friday night but another weak surface low will develop Saturday
moving across the coastal waters late Saturday bringing another
brief period of moderate to strong winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  49  44  52 /  90 100 100  70
BTR  46  55  47  55 /  90 100  90  70
ASD  43  57  47  59 /  80  90  90  80
MSY  51  62  53  61 /  80  90  90  80
GPT  45  57  49  60 /  60  90  90  90
PQL  41  56  47  62 /  50  90  90  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for
     LAZ070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ532-534-536-538-557-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for
     MSZ086-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ534-536-538-557-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ