149
FXUS64 KLIX 052017
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
217 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

1. More rain expected over the next 60 hours however, this will
mostly be light rain. There could be two more focused rain areas
though. First is tonight after midnight and through Saturday
morning along and south of the 10/12 corridor. Pockets of moderate
rain will be possible. Second is Sunday morning through the
afternoon but that could be focused along and south of the coast.

2. Still looks like another 0.5 to 1.5 inches of additional
rainfall will fall across the area through tomorrow afternoon.
Overall the risk for Flash Flooding is very low and river flooding
is not a concern given the rain will likely remain south of most
of the rivers. However, if there is a band of slightly heavier
rain that trains directly over New Orleans there is a very small
risk for isolated flash flooding.

3. Another shot of colder air will come from a stronger cold front
late on Sunday. Colder air from this front won`t arrive until Monday
so the coldest night of the forecast period will be Monday night
and we could see temperatures near freezing in southwest MS and
adjacent parishes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Another cold wet dreary day across the region but rain
has been much lighter today than yesterday. The heaviest rain has
been located along the immediate SELA coast and in the Gulf while
scattered light showers and sprinkles were impacting most of the
area. Obviously with the front stalled south of the area combined
with overcast skies and rain, temperatures have generally
remained steady.

The forecast for tonight through the weekend is overall not
significantly impactful when looking at severity/strength but it will
have impacts given the multiple holiday celebrations and events
occuring this weekend. For the most part this would just be a cool
to cold and wet weekend (well at least through Saturday night)
however the amount of rain in the grand scheme of things is low and
yeah it will be cold but we are not looking at freezing temps and
temps. Sunday outside of rain potential which confidence on that is
low could be comfortable with highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Overall confidence is not the highest with respect to timing and
location of rain mainly as it will be dictated by subtle features.
We remain under west-southwest with broad lift constantly moving
over the region. That is easily seen in GOES19 WV imagery. There
isn`t any real impulse/wave to time out and focus on so we will
continue to see light showers and sprinkles through the remainder of
today and into the early evening hours. If there is going to be a
band or consolidated area of rain we will need something else to
focus on that could possibly be overnight tonight and into early
tomorrow morning. Currently and for the next 8-12 hrs we actually
have weak isentropic downglide across the northwest 3rd/half of the
CWA and to our northwest. Finally between 6 and 9z we will see a
shift as there looks to be isentropic lift increasing along and
south of the 10/12 corridor. This shows up in the 285 and 290K
layers but it is short lived. This appears to be in response to a
weak s/w currently moving through the 4 corners and into the the
Ok/TX panhandles. This is a much weaker s/w than the one that
dropped through that area Wednesday night so it will quickly
assimilate with the L/W trough early Saturday. As it moves into
southern Plains it looks like it will impart some influence across
the region, one will be helping to start to draw the stalled front
north, it will still be in the coastal waters midday Saturday but by
Saturday evening be well on its way north across the CWA. Back to
the isentropic lift and rain potential. The window is narrow but at
time we may see an overall increase in light rain production just
after 6z along and south of the southwest and south-central LA
coast. This would slowly spread west-norhtwest through the early
morning hours but by 15z we will quickly see downglide return from
the northwest likely putting a halt to the rain for the northwestern
half to 2/3rds of the CWA before 18z.

Rain will likely come to an end for a short while across most of the
area, mainly Saturday afternoon and through much of the night. Early
Sunday morning we may begin to see light showers begin to develop
across the coasts but there will be a better chance of a more
consolidate area of rain Sunday, late morning through the early
afternoon, the issue is it could be right along the coast and across
the coastal waters. We will see low pressure begin to take shape
once again over southeastern TX as a much stronger s/w drops down
the backside of the L/W trough. That s/w will finally get the L/W
trough to push through the area. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Next week medium range models are in agreement
initially. All indicate the L/W trough moving through and setting up
across the eastern CONUS/Atlantic coast next week. There are some
differences though in the amplitude of the pattern over the CONUS
but that is more during the second half of the work week. With the
models overall in fair enough agreement we will just stick with the
latest NBM. The biggest possible Target of Opportunity looks to be
Tuesday morning and that may be the only real deviation from the
NBM.

L/W trough finally slides east of the Lower MS Valley Sunday night
finally ushering a cold front completely through the area. Drier air
will finally filter in with high pressure building in from the
northwest. However the sfc high will not quite be over the area
Monday night still trying to build to the southeast while the center
of it will be well northeast of the area. The reason for that is
that even though the L/W trough axis will be east of the area the
pattern initially will be zonal aloft. A s/w coming out of the
Pacific northwest will be diving down the backside of it moving
through the Lower MS Valley Tuesday. That finally puts the region
under northwest flow aloft. In addition we still may be tapped into
the subtropical jet which could keep high clouds lingering over the
area. All of this will have a negative impact on radiational cooling
efficiency. The deterministic NBM is once again at the high end of
the probabilities and is either right at or above the 90th
percentile. This would typically make you question it and see if we
would be colder however, the MOS products are actually warmer and
given the not favorable radiational cooling set up I see no reason to
adjust Tuesday morning lows at this time which range from right near
freezing over southwest MS to lower/mid 40s over coastal SELA.

As for the rest of the forecast we will remain dry Monday through at
least Thursday and possibly through the work week. Monday and
Tuesday morning will be the coldest period in the current forecast
with temperatures slowly beginning to moderate Tuesday. /CAB/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

All terminals continue to deal with impacts with most in IFR and
even dropping to LIFR at times due to low cigs. This will continue
to be the case through the entire forecast and impacts will continue
until we finally see a stronger cold front push through the region
Sunday night. Cigs are currently hovering around 700-1100 ft over
the area with most between 800 and 1K ft. There are pockets of lower
cigs down to as low as 400 ft. As for rain and vsby restrictions
even the light rain is not dropping vsbys below 6sm but in some of
the moderate to heavy showers we could see those drop down to mainly
3-4sm but can`t rule out as low as 2sm. Outside of rain P6SM will be
the rule with cigs the dominant issue. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A weak surface low has moved to the east with offshore flow now over
all of the coastal waters but the front will stall just to the south
of the coastal waters. Winds have already relaxed over much of the
area and will continue to remain light through the remainder of
today and this evening. As the stalled front front drifts back to
the north tonight winds will be a little more chaotic but still
light. We finally see a stronger cold front push through Sunday
night with moderate to possibly strong offshore winds developing.
SCS or SCY headlines will likely be needed for portions of the
coastal waters overnight and into Monday. High pressure quickly
builds back into the area Monday and Monday night. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  59  47  68 /  40  30  10  30
BTR  44  61  50  72 /  50  40  10  30
ASD  44  58  48  70 /  70  70  10  30
MSY  50  60  54  72 /  70  70  20  30
GPT  46  58  50  69 /  70  70  20  30
PQL  44  58  48  69 /  70  80  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB