Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
691 FXUS64 KLIX 131838 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1238 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 - Above normal temperatures expected through the start of next week. - Tonight, tomorrow night, and Saturday night, some patchy dense fog could develop. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Very little change in thinking from the previous forecast cycles today. A building mid to upper level ridge over the region will keep increasing negative vorticity through Saturday night. As the ridge builds in, drier and warmer than average conditions will continue. Strong mid-level warming will keep any rain showers from forming as updraft development will be capped off between 5 and 10 thousand feet each afternoon. At most, a scattered to broken strato-cumulus field can be expected each day. A continued higher potential for fog development will remain the primary forecast issue. Light onshore flow through the period will allow low level moisture to gradually increase. Strong radiational cooling will allow for decent boundary layer decoupling to occur. I have continued to go with NBM 50th percentile temperatures for the overnight lows due to the strong radiational cooling expected. As the boundary layer becomes decoupled, patchy fog will form in the early morning hours, and the fog could turn locally dense at times. The fog will mix out fairly quickly by the mid- morning hours as temperatures rise and the inversion weakens. By the afternoon, temperatures should climb a good 5 to 10 degrees above average into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s each night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Guidance continues to back off on any rain chances through the first half of next as a southern stream system is now expected to shear out and weaken dramatically as it moves into the Plains states and Midwest. The main impact from this weakening feature as it progresses to the east will be weaken the mid to upper level ridge over the area. However, the ridge will still be in place and dry air aloft will continue to effectively cap off any rain chances through at least Tuesday. The continued upper level subsidence beneath the upper level ridge will allow for warmer than average daytime highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s to persist through the entire long term period. Overnight lows will also be warmer than average in the upper 50s and 60s as dewpoints slowly rise. This greater low level moisture will also support continued patchy fog or low stratus development on Sunday and Monday nights, depending on overall boundary layer wind strength. Any low stratus or fog will mix out into a scattered strato- cumulus field each day. Wednesday into Wednesday night, the medium range guidance is in decent agreement that the upper level high will shift to the east and a deep layer onshore flow regime will take hold. This will allow the mid and upper level to both cool and moisten, and overall instability will increase. Additionally, a broad region of increasing upper level omega associated with an increasingly difluent flow pattern aloft will support some isolated to scattered shower activity by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Forcing looks to be greatest across the northwest portion of the CWA, and this is only the region where PoP has been introduced in the extended period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Fog will once again be the primary forecast concern for the terminals tonight into tomorrow morning. Conditions once again look favorable for a surface based inversion to develop, and this will support some patchy fog and low stratus development. IFR or lower fog and stratus conditions are forecast generally between 09z and 14z at BTR, HDC, MCB, ASD, and HUM as the inversion will be strongest at these terminals. The more coastally influenced terminals of GPT, MSY, and NEW will see a weaker inversion and fog is not expected to develop. After 14z, the inversion will quickly mix out and conditions will turn VFR at all of the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Very calm conditions will remain in place across all of the waters through Monday as a broad surface high continues to dominate the northern Gulf. Light southerly flow of less than 10 knots and seas of 2 feet or less can be expected. Heading into Tuesday, the gradient over the waters will tighten up a bit, but winds will only increase to 10 to 15 knots. Seas may increase to 3 feet in the outer Gulf waters. Overall, no significant impacts to maritime operations are expected through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 52 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 54 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 50 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 57 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 54 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 49 76 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...PG MARINE...PG