121
FXUS64 KLIX 021851
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1251 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Colder air has been filtering into the area following a surface
   low, with the coldest temperatures forecast Wednesday morning.
   Another light freeze is forecast in southwest Mississippi and
   the adjacent Florida Parishes, with generally 2-6 hours of
   subfreezing temperatures forecast.

 - Another storm system will bring widespread rain and embedded
   thunderstorms to the area Thursday through Friday night. There
   will be at least a low-end threat of heavy rain with this
   system and two-day rainfall totals are currently forecast in
   the 2-3 inch range. Please check the forecast for updates in
   the coming days as forecast rainfall totals and associated
   flood threats will continue to be refined.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Very subtle ridging across the southern plains is causing a
surface high to build across the area on the backside of the
departing surface low moving northeast across southern Georgia and
off of the eastern seaboard. Cold air advection and persistent
cloud cover has been taking place all day today, filtering in and
keeping below average temperatures across the area with highs in
the upper 40s and low 50s. Because of the high pressure, the winds
will continue to die down throughout the day today and into
tonight. Usually, high pressure coming over on top of the cold
airmass that was advected in will promote strong cooling, however,
that persistent cloud cover is expected to stick around right near
the surface. In a radiational cooling setup such as tonight, any
cloud cover will significantly reduce the amount of cooling that
will take place. Therefore, minimum temperatures have been bumped
up for tonight due to the expected cloud cover. Although they were
bumped up, southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes
are expected to, at least briefly, see freezing temperatures
before sunrise.

The previously mentioned ridging is expected to continue to move
eastward on Wednesday across the southeastern CONUS, pushing the
high pressure east as well. With the high pressure expected to be
over the Tennessee Valley, we will see a return of warmer and more
moist air on Wednesday, pushing highs up 10-15 degrees higher
than Tuesday in the upper 50s and low 60s. Really dry continental
air is still expected aloft, keeping overall PW near the 25th
percentile for this time of year. This will keep us dry and cool
throughout the day on Wednesday with scattered cloud coverage from
impeding PVA ahead of the next trough that will be making its way
through the Southwest CONUS at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The previously mentioned trough over the southwestern CONUS is
expected to phase with the subtropical jet over the northern Gulf
late Wednesday and into Thursday. The phasing of the two will
promote a surface low to form in the northwestern Gulf on
Thursday. We will mostly see isentropic overrunning stratiform
rain north of the low on Thursday, but some of the guidance is
suggesting 850mb frontogenesis north of the surface low on
Thursday in a east/west oriented band somewhere along the I-10/12
corridor. If this were to setup, wherever that band sets up could
see 3-4 inches of rainfall throughout 24 hours on Thursday. This
would not be a major concern with flash flooding, since this would
fall throughout the course of the day, but if we were to see
higher rainfall rates and that amount of rain in a shorter period
of time, then flash flooding would be a concern.

As the surface low moves off to the east along the northern Gulf
coast, the 850mb front will likely pivot into a more SW to NE
orientation across the area. This elevated front will keep
promoting elevated rain chances on Friday where areas along that
front could see 2-3 inches of rain throughout 24 hours on Friday.
Again, since will will come throughout the day on Friday, flash
flooding is not a concern on Friday either.

Model ensemble clustering shows models begin to really diverge.
It`s all about what the following trough does. Some of the
guidance has the trough getting cut off near the Baja Peninsula
while other have it progressing across the country and keeping us
in an active pattern. Since there is so much disagreement in the
models, that timeframe was not touched, and we`ll just have to
keep an eye on how things evolve into this weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The MVFR cloud deck that has been across the area is expected to
slowly break up this afternoon and evening. Once that happens, VFR
conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period as only
mid-to-high clouds are expected this evening and overnight
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The low pressure that has been in the Gulf has been moving off to
the northeast across southern Georgia this morning. The winds on the
backside of the low have remained elevated with gusts over 20 knots.
However, a surface high pressure will be building in throughout this
afternoon and this evening, so expect winds to keep relaxing
throughout the rest of the day today. Conditions will remain benign
through Wednesday and Thursday morning. Another low pressure is
expected to form in the northwestern Gulf. This will enhance winds
and rain chances again during the day Thursday. Rain will stick
around, but winds will likely relax as the front associated with the
low hangs around through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  31  58  43  51 /   0   0  70  90
BTR  32  61  48  55 /   0   0  80  90
ASD  33  60  43  56 /   0   0  60  90
MSY  42  63  52  61 /   0   0  70  90
GPT  35  59  45  55 /   0   0  50  90
PQL  33  60  41  56 /   0   0  30  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ