Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
300 FXUS64 KLIX 022346 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL 546 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 545 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 - Colder air has been filtering into the area following a surface low, with the coldest temperatures forecast Wednesday morning. Another light freeze is forecast in southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes, with generally 2-6 hours of subfreezing temperatures forecast. - Another storm system will bring widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms to the area Thursday through Friday night. There will be at least a low-end threat of heavy rain with this system and two-day rainfall totals are currently forecast in the 2-3 inch range. Please check the forecast for updates in the coming days as forecast rainfall totals and associated flood threats will continue to be refined. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Very subtle ridging across the southern plains is causing a surface high to build across the area on the backside of the departing surface low moving northeast across southern Georgia and off of the eastern seaboard. Cold air advection and persistent cloud cover has been taking place all day today, filtering in and keeping below average temperatures across the area with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Because of the high pressure, the winds will continue to die down throughout the day today and into tonight. Usually, high pressure coming over on top of the cold airmass that was advected in will promote strong cooling, however, that persistent cloud cover is expected to stick around right near the surface. In a radiational cooling setup such as tonight, any cloud cover will significantly reduce the amount of cooling that will take place. Therefore, minimum temperatures have been bumped up for tonight due to the expected cloud cover. Although they were bumped up, southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes are expected to, at least briefly, see freezing temperatures before sunrise. The previously mentioned ridging is expected to continue to move eastward on Wednesday across the southeastern CONUS, pushing the high pressure east as well. With the high pressure expected to be over the Tennessee Valley, we will see a return of warmer and more moist air on Wednesday, pushing highs up 10-15 degrees higher than Tuesday in the upper 50s and low 60s. Really dry continental air is still expected aloft, keeping overall PW near the 25th percentile for this time of year. This will keep us dry and cool throughout the day on Wednesday with scattered cloud coverage from impeding PVA ahead of the next trough that will be making its way through the Southwest CONUS at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 The previously mentioned trough over the southwestern CONUS is expected to phase with the subtropical jet over the northern Gulf late Wednesday and into Thursday. The phasing of the two will promote a surface low to form in the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. We will mostly see isentropic overrunning stratiform rain north of the low on Thursday, but some of the guidance is suggesting 850mb frontogenesis north of the surface low on Thursday in a east/west oriented band somewhere along the I-10/12 corridor. If this were to setup, wherever that band sets up could see 3-4 inches of rainfall throughout 24 hours on Thursday. This would not be a major concern with flash flooding, since this would fall throughout the course of the day, but if we were to see higher rainfall rates and that amount of rain in a shorter period of time, then flash flooding would be a concern. As the surface low moves off to the east along the northern Gulf coast, the 850mb front will likely pivot into a more SW to NE orientation across the area. This elevated front will keep promoting elevated rain chances on Friday where areas along that front could see 2-3 inches of rain throughout 24 hours on Friday. Again, since will will come throughout the day on Friday, flash flooding is not a concern on Friday either. Model ensemble clustering shows models begin to really diverge. It`s all about what the following trough does. Some of the guidance has the trough getting cut off near the Baja Peninsula while other have it progressing across the country and keeping us in an active pattern. Since there is so much disagreement in the models, that timeframe was not touched, and we`ll just have to keep an eye on how things evolve into this weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Regional surface observations and satellite imagery are detecting solid MVFR ceilings along and north of the Interstate-10 corridor, with VFR conditions to the south. Given the abundant moisture trapped below a frontal inversion, this forecast will lean toward the solution of persistent MVFR ceilings north of I-10 through the night. Clouds are expected to clear out by 15-18z Wednesday at the latest. && .MARINE... Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 The low pressure that has been in the Gulf has been moving off to the northeast across southern Georgia this morning. The winds on the backside of the low have remained elevated with gusts over 20 knots. However, a surface high pressure will be building in throughout this afternoon and this evening, so expect winds to keep relaxing throughout the rest of the day today. Conditions will remain benign through Wednesday and Thursday morning. Another low pressure is expected to form in the northwestern Gulf. This will enhance winds and rain chances again during the day Thursday. Rain will stick around, but winds will likely relax as the front associated with the low hangs around through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 31 58 43 51 / 0 0 70 90 BTR 32 61 48 55 / 0 0 80 90 ASD 33 60 43 56 / 0 0 60 90 MSY 42 63 52 61 / 0 0 70 90 GPT 35 59 45 55 / 0 0 50 90 PQL 33 60 41 56 / 0 0 30 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM....JZ AVIATION...JP MARINE...JZ