392
FXUS64 KLIX 091925
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
125 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- An Arctic front will bring temperatures to near or below
  freezing on Tuesday morning across much of the area. A Freeze
  Watch has been issued for all of the outlook area with the
  exception of the immediate southshore of Lake Pontchartrain and
  the immediate SELA coast. Now is a good time to start
  winterizing your outdoor areas such as covering pipes and being
  prepared to cover plants.

- Higher winds (20-35kt) and seas (7-14ft) hazardous to small
  crafts will occur this afternoon through Monday evening.
  Frequent wind gusts to gale-force are expected tonight and will
  be possible tomorrow afternoon and into the evening.

- A combination of gusty winds up to 20-25mph and RH between 25-30
  percent will lead to an elevated fire risk on Monday. Please be
  careful if burning on Monday, and listen to local officials in
  case any burn bans become in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

For early/mid November a bitterly cold airmass will surge into the
area overnight and impact the region through Tuesday. Luckily though
this airmass is not long for our region and will quickly move out of
the area. How fast you say, well we go from highs in the upper 40s
to mid 50s Monday and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s Tuesday morning
to highs back in the 70s Wednesday and lows in the 50s Thursday
morning, yes in just 36-48 hours we will see temps rebound by 20 to
almost 30 degrees. The culprit is a digging L/W trough over the
central US and a strong cold front which has already moved through
the region. Strong northerly winds and very dry air is already
filtering into the area but the much colder air will arrive this
evening.

The forecast focus is predominantly one the next 36 hours as the
remainder of the forecast is quiet with moderating temps but before
that we will have to deal with a light to moderate freeze over much
of the area. The L/W trough mentioned earlier will continue to dig
as trough axis slides east of the area overnight or early tomorrow
morning. As deep as this L/W trough is it will be very progressive
and the trough axis will be pushing off the Atlantic coast by
Tuesday morning. Everything else is following suit as the sfc high
associated with this cold airmass will be moving into and out of the
area quickly as well. Currently the sfc high is centered over the
Canadian border with MT and ND. By midnight tomorrow night that high
is expected to be centered directly over central and southern MS and
by Tuesday evening over the FL/GA border. Yes this airmass will be
moving into and out of the area very quickly. Dewpoints are already
down into the upper 30s across southwest MS with gusty northerly
winds across the entire region. The colder air is lagging quite
considerably and that may have a bigger impact on lows tonight but
given that tonight would not really be a radiational cooling night
and mainly dictated by CAA this may not be as big an issue as one
would think.

Main question is how cold do we get tonight. There is a small chance
that locations across southwest MS and possibly isolated locations
in the adjacent LA parishes could drop down to freezing tonight but
models were also suggesting highs would`ve been a few degrees colder
than where we currently are. This may be due to thinking there would
be stronger mixing thanks to the gusty northerly winds, possibly
thinking slightly greater cloud coverage, or even some weak CAA
initially. That said with southwest MS already in the mid to upper
60s and even a few 70s pretty close that means temps would have to
cool a few more degrees to get to freezing tonight than previously
thought. Now not saying it isn`t possible and given how dry it
already is those first few hours at and just after sunset will see
the temperature drop quickly and may still be enough that the few
extra degrees won`t change anything. However, with the forecast
showing lows around 30-32, 1 or two extra degrees is the difference
between 32 and 33. So with confidence not high about tonight we will
hold off on the freeze warning for tonight. Even if those isolated
locations touch 32 or even get down to 30 it will be very limited in
scope and time and given how cold it will get tomorrow night those
few minutes to an hour of a light freeze won`t mean anything with
respect to what we see Monday night.

Monday and Monday night is going to be raw. Renewed CAA during the
first late morning and midday hrs at h85 should continue to lead to
breezy conditions tomorrow. That said we likely will not mix to h85
so we will look at h925 temps as a base for the forecast highs
tomorrow. H925 temps look like they will mainly range from near 0 to
2/3C. HRRR is trying to indicate h925 temps could be even as low as -
1/-2C tomorrow afternoon but that seems like an outlier checking
with other CAMs and the Global models. That said h925 temps of 0-3C
indicate a mix down temps of around 48 to 55 and that is pretty
close to what the NBM has. The LL thermal trough should move just
east of the area by tomorrow morning but even looking upstream
currently there doesn`t look to be a lot of low clouds associated
with that that will move into our area so clouds don`t seem to be an
issue tomorrow.

Tomorrow night, COLD that is about the only thing that can describe
it. Winds may actually be a little on the breezy side at first in
the evening but as fast as the sfc high is moving into the region
winds both at the sfc and just above the deck will quickly subside.
First we will get a very favorable jumping off point with temps
likely only in the upper 40s to mid 50s before sunset. So in just
the first few hours of the evening the northern half of the CWA will
already be in the 30s. Dewpoints could be down into the upper teens
in some areas as well. So the question is how fast can the winds
shut down. Even is the sfc winds can decouple if winds above the
boundary layer are still in the 20 to 25 kt range that would hurt
radiational potential winds around h925 and h85 will likely still be
around 20 to 25 kt around 0-3z but by 6z h925 could be down to 10 kt
or lower for the northwestern 3rd/half of the CWA and by 12z winds
at that level could be around 5 kt across most of the area. With
winds almost collapsing quickly after midnight, skies clear, and
very dry conditions in place everything could set up in just the
right way for a bitterly cold morning for Nov 11th. the potential is
even there for the drainage areas like ASD and PQl to plummet into
the lower 20s. That would take everything working out just right.
That said we have lows in the forecast ranging from the mid 20s to
lower 30s for much of the CWA. The exception are the immediate
southshore of Lake Pontchartrain and extreme coastal SELA. Because
of this we have issued a Freeze Watch for everyone except those l
locations just mentioned. Most locations along and north of I-12 and
across coastal MS will see a moderate freeze with freezing
temperatures around 6 to 10 hours in duration. Make preparations now
for any sensitive vegetation and animals that area typically left
outside. Lows of this magnitude will break records at multiple sites
and could even break some by close to 5 degrees. Baton Rouge only
has a record low of 32 in 1991 (forecast currently has 29) and
Slidell is at 30 in 2011 (forecast currently 26) while the record at
Pascagoula is 28 in 2011 (forecast currently 25). /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The forecast for the extended portion of this package is quiet.
All models are in agreement that we will quickly moderate this
week with no rain in the forecast till maybe next weekend. With
the primary focus on the next 36 hours the forecast for Tuesday
(after the morning lows) through the remainder of the forecast is
the NBM with no adjustments made.

As mentioned earlier in the discussion the L/W trough is very
progressive with zonal flow setting up over the area and even return
flow in place by late Tuesday. We see moisture and temperatures
quickly recover with dewpoints back in the 50s Wednesday and h925
temps around 15C. This will lead to 70s by Wednesday for highs and
then we slow down the moderation for the rest of the week as highs
remain in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s to maybe lower 60s just
ahead of the next deep L/W trough taking shape west of the
Continental Divide Friday. This is at the back end of this forecast
package but the trends in the medium range guidance suggest this
system next weekend could bring the threat of strong to severe
storms to portion of the Lower MS Valley. We will need to watch this
closely over the next few days and see how everything evolves.

So from record breaking lows at the beginning of the forecast to
possible severe weather at the end, welcome to the transition
seasons of Fall and Spring. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

After the cold front moved through earlier the biggest issue has
become strong northerly winds. This is mainly over the terminals
that will see winds at the sfc relax a tad this evening and
overnight while winds just off the deck remain very strong. This
will lead to LLWS at BTR/MCB/HDC/ASD. MSY and NEW will not have that
problem given their proximity to the lake where strong winds will
mix down to the sfc all night long. This will likely be the same for
GPT given how close it is to the coast. Outside of the LLWS concern
there are no other problem this package. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A strong cold front is already sliding through the coastal waters
with strong northerly winds quickly developing after it passes.
These winds will increase through the afternoon and more so
overnight over most of the waters but especially the water south
and west of the mouth of the river and over Lake Pontchartrain.
Strong cold air advection overnight and much warmer water compared
to the air above it tonight will lead to efficient mixing and
winds gusting to Gales overnight. The strong northerly winds will
also lead to seas of 9-14 feet over the open waters. Due to the
forecast of these frequent wind gusts we did upgrade some of the
SCY to a Gale Warning for the aforementioned area. The winds will
relax some after sunrise over all of the waters but renewed cold
air advection just above the surface will lead to an increase in
winds around 1000 to 2500 ft above the surface. These winds will
become unidirectional with the surface winds east of the mouth of
the river around midday and through the early evening hours and
with sea temps in the lower to mid 70s but air temps in the 50s
those winds may be able to mix down efficiently leading to
possible Gale Force winds. With that, the SCY that was in place
for those open waters east of the MS Delta has been replaced with
a Gale Watch at this time mainly for tomorrow afternoon and the
early evening hours. Even if winds do not reach Gale in that area
high end SCY conditions will occur and seas in the open waters
will likely be around 8-12 ft. A surface high starts filtering
into the area early Tuesday and light winds and calmer seas return
with it. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  49  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  35  52  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  34  53  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  55  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  37  53  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  34  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-065-071-076-079>086-088>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-550-
     552-555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ530-550-552-570.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ530-550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ532-
     534-536-538.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ555-557-572-575-577.

     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for GMZ555-
     557-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ557-577.

MS...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ550-552-
     555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ550-552-570.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ534-
     536-538.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ557-572-575-577.

     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for GMZ557-
     572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB