Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
637 FXUS64 KLIX 122318 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 518 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 512 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Warming trend this week. Above normal temperatures starting tomorrow and lasting through early next week. - Tonight, tomorrow night, and Friday night, some patchy dense fog could develop. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Increasing negative vorticity associated with a strengthening mid to upper level ridge over the southern Plains and Texas will be the main feature impacting the forecast across the Gulf South through Friday night. The subsidence associated with this building ridge will keep conditions drier and warmer than average through the period. A strong mid-level temperature inversion will also prohibit any rain showers from forming as updraft development will be capped off between 5 and 10 thousand feet through the period. The only major forecast concern will be a higher potential for fog development each night. The presence of light onshore flow through the period will allow low level moisture to gradually increase. Additionally, the clear skies and light winds beneath the ridge will allow temperatures to quickly cool each night. In fact, I have opted to go with NBM 50th percentile temperatures for the overnight lows due to the strong radiational cooling expected. The end result will be temperatures falling below the critical cross over temperature (the dewpoint temperature at the warmest portion of the day) each night, especially in more inland locations away from the coast. This will allow areas of fog to form in the early morning hours, and the fog could turn locally dense at times. There is a decent probability that dense fog advisories will be issued for portions of the area. The fog should burn off fairly quickly by the mid-morning hours as daytime heating allows for increased boundary layer mixing. By the afternoon, temperatures should climb a good 5 to 10 degrees above average into the upper 70s and lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 All of the medium range model guidance continues to back off on any rain chances through the weekend as a southern stream system is now not expected to push into the central Plains as a weakening sheared out shortwave trough axis early next week. This means that the weekend will see a longwave mid to upper level ridge be the primary feature driving our weather. This will keep temperatures warmer than average in the upper 70s and lower 80s with only some fair weather cumulus development beneath a strong mid-level inversion expected each afternoon. Light onshore winds will continue to usher in low level moisture, so overnight lows will also be warmer than average in the upper 50s and 60s. Fog could still be a concern both Saturday and Sunday nights, but I have not included it in forecast at this time. Heading into early next week, the flow pattern will turn more zonal as the weakening shortwave trough moves through the Plains and into the Ohio Valley. The tail end of this weak trough axis could spark off some isolated to widely scattered shower activity on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also remain warmer than average with highs climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows will fall into the low to mid 60s each day. Although conditions are warm and moist in the low levels, boundary layer conditions will be less conducive to fog development. However, some morning stratus is likely to form beneath an elevated inversion each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 512 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions through this evening and into the overnight hours. There is a signal for fog overnight for MCB, BTR, HDC, and HUM, however, the signal is a bit weaker so bumped VIS values from the previous package a bit to highlight this change. Otherwise, once sun rises on Thursday fog should mix out by around 14z with VFR conditions expected there after. Winds will remain mostly southerly and light through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 A broad surface high centered over the northern Gulf through the weekend will keep winds light at 10 knots or less and seas fairly calm at 2 feet or less through the entire period. Overall, no significant concerns to mariners are expected through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 49 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 51 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 48 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 55 76 57 76 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 52 74 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 48 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...RDF MARINE...PG