Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
462 FXUS64 KLIX 071253 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 653 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 553 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 - Dense fog is likely Friday morning along and east of the I-55 corridor, especially along the Pearl and Pascagoula River basins. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for these areas. Patchy dense fog cannot be ruled out for parts of the River Parishes and Baton Rouge metro Friday morning which could prompt expansion of the advisory. - Areas of dense fog could develop again on Saturday morning. - An Arctic front will bring temperatures to near or below freezing on Tuesday morning along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. Plan to winterize your outdoor areas by covering plants and pipes, and dripping faucets on Monday night. - Higher winds (20-30kt) and seas (7-12ft) hazardous to small crafts are likely Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning, wind gusts could approach gale-force. Highest winds and seas will be 20nm or farther offshore. && .UPDATE... Issued at 553 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Dense fog advisory has been cancelled. Over the last few hours all observation sites has shown improved visibilities to almost unrestricted visibilities (10sm ). At the same time low clouds have been building ranging from as low as 600-800 ft and over 5500 ft. Looking the VWP (VAD Wind Profile), winds have increased to 20 knots at the 1st gate (1k ft) and 25 kts at the 2nd gate. This typically leads to more of a stratus deck and not fog especially since this would have been more of a radiational fog event and not advection fog. With the improvement the dense fog adv was cancelled but there may still be a few patches of light fog out there this morning. As for rain today, latest NBM, HRRR, and CAMs have really started to tank on the PoPs, especially along and west of I-55 but even west of the Pearl River. That said there is still a good chance that we will see scattered light shra or more so sprinkles over the eastern half/3rd of the CWA but most people should not expect any appreciable rain today. Biggest issue is this really is needing isentropic lift/WAA and that is looking more on the weak side. There is still some isentropic lift, showing up the best around the 300K lvl but it is a very narrow window and small area (all east of I-55 from 13/14z on I-55 to 19/20z over coastal MS. You can even already see the western extent of where light rain could develop on WV and that is already right along the I-55 corridor. With that it is likely that BTR, MCB, HUM, and a good chance that HDC and MSY could all remain dry. New Zones will be out shortly to show the lower PoPs. /CAB/ && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 Latest SREF/HREF prob visibility guidance indicating high (>60%) probabilities of visibilities less than 1 mile in conjunction with GLAMP visibility guidance showing areas of visibility less than 1/4SM has increased confidence in dense fog development for areas along and between the Pearl River and Pascagoula River basins Friday morning. This has prompted the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory for these areas. Onset of dense fog development will be favored especially after midnight and is already beginning to become evident on GOES nighttime microphysics RGB channels where low stratus is rapidly building down between ASD through PQL and up through BXA. GPT and PQL have already reported visibilities less than 1 mile since 10PM CST, and this is expected to persist through the overnight hours. Dense fog is one of the most disruptive and deadly weather hazards to transportation and commerce in America. Drivers in the advisory area should plan for road congestion, use low beam headlights, and increase following distances. Areas west of I-55 could still see some patchy fog development through the early morning hours, but overspreading of stratus from enhanced moistening of the atmosphere and gradual height falls should limit dense fog development. By daybreak, a weak shortwave at the tail-end of the larger trough axis diving out of the northern plains will begin to kick up some showers that will spread from the southwest to the northeast across the area through the morning and into the afternoon hours. Precipitation totals will be minimal for most, but a couple of isolated storms could provide a quick downpour for the lucky few to provide some reprieve from the abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions present across the CWA. As this first shortwave departs, it`ll push through a weak boundary that will largely just amount to a wind shift to more light southwesterly flow at the surface into Friday night. Low- level moisture will linger into Saturday morning and signals have been reasonable strong for at least patchy fog to develop across much of the area. Latest SREF/HREF guidance is lukewarm on whether this fog will become dense (<1/4 SM), but future forecast updates can hone in on these concerns for Saturday morning. Temps will warm into the low 80s during the day Saturday, about 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year at climate sites. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 A series of shortwave troughs traversing the Polar Jetstream over the next few days will favor falling heights across the Great Lakes region that will open the door for a deeper trough to dive out of the Arctic circle and phase into a deep, longwave trough over the eastern CONUS through early next week. This will drive a deep Arctic air mass through the eastern half of the country over the weekend, arriving to the Gulf coast by Sunday. The cold front associated with this trough will be more moisture starved as the initial shortwave trough on Friday clears the area out and lowers dew points back into the lower 60s. PoPs should be monitored for Sunday morning with the front depending on moisture trends and timing, but any precipitation will be limited in coverage and generally light. Frontal passage through the day Sunday will bring breezing northerly winds with gusts upwards of 25-30mph across the area and an overall gradual cold temperature advection regime as the coldest air lags behind the surface front. The front`s presence really won`t be felt by most until they step outside Monday morning and through the day Monday as temperatures struggle to escape the 50s. With clearing skies and calming northerly winds, a strong radiational cooling and cold drainages regime will allow many areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor to reach freezing or sub-freezing temperatures for the first time this season on Tuesday morning. For areas likely to receive freezing conditions, now is the time to begin winterizing your outdoor areas by covering pipes and plants, and planning to bring potted plants and pets indoors on Monday night. Expect temperatures to gradually rebound each day beginning Tuesday through midweek as a strong surface high pressure system moves overhead. Beyond this timeframe, it`s unclear given the disagreement in global guidance whether this eastern CONUS troughing longwave pattern with more consistent cold fronts will persist or whether we see a pattern flip to more southwesterly flow aloft which is more favorable to warmer, and more active convective weather by mid-month. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Fog has lifted and main issue is low clouds. Some terminals are in VFR status but other like MCB and HDC are down to IFR status with cigs around 800 ft. Elsewhere cigs mainly ranged just abv 1k to 4k over much of SELA and SW MS to around 5500-7k over coastal MS. Cigs will rise through the morning and all terminals should be back in VFR unless there is rain. Rain doesn`t look as favorable with isolated to scattered light shra today and mainly east of I-55. This could drop vsbys to around 4-5sm but overall the next real impact will be overnight when fog is possible once again. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025 Southeasterly winds on the southwest flank of surface high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic will continue to pivot to southwesterly through the day Friday and into Saturday. We`ll also see scattered showers and a couple isolated, weak storms along the coast primarily during the morning to afternoon hours on Friday due to the return flow of moisture, then diminishing towards sunset. By Sunday, a strong cold front will swing through marine waters introducing strong offshore/northerly flow with gusts in excess of 25-35 knots, especially for Gulf waters, and waves/seas responding to around 7- 12ft for 20-60nm zones. Small Craft Advisory and the potential for Gale conditions remain possible, primarily late Sunday through early Tuesday. By midweek, high pressure settles into the region allowing for winds and wave/seas to relax. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 80 60 81 56 / 30 10 10 30 BTR 83 62 83 60 / 20 10 10 30 ASD 79 60 81 60 / 30 0 0 20 MSY 83 65 83 64 / 30 10 0 10 GPT 77 63 79 64 / 30 10 0 10 PQL 79 60 80 60 / 30 10 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJS LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...CAB MARINE...TJS