137
FXUS64 KLIX 171119 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
519 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 511 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Patchy to widespread areas of dense fog Monday possible morning.

- Above normal temperatures expected through most of this week.

- Rain threat returns late week into the weekend.

- Possibly hazardous marine conditions Thurs/Fri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

The main story of the short term period will be the potential for
widespread dense fog early Monday morning. NBM probabilities
continued to rise with each run, with a good chunk of the area
sitting with probabilities of visibility less than a mile ~40%.
Additionally HREF probabilities of visibility less than a mile
upwards of 60-70% for some areas, mainly western areas of the CWA.
Knowing all of this, went with a Dense Fog Advisory from Midnight
through 9AM Monday for all areas west of Coastal Mississippi.

Outside of fog chances, high pressure at the surface centered to
our east will keep conditions rather quiet through the short term.
This combined with upper level ridging allows for well above
normal temperatures for this time of year, with afternoon highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. This is a good 10 degrees above
climate normals. Precipitation is nowhere to be found in the short
term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

The start to the long term period won`t see much change from the
short term period as our surface high pressure east of us
continues to hang around. While yesterday guidance was showing our
upper level riding starting to flatten out by Wednesday, today
global guidance is actually showing the ridge strengthening some.
This helps Wednesday high temperatures reach the hottest of the
week, with many areas seeing the mid 80s.

By Thursday we see our next potential weather maker take shape
out west as an upper level shortwave trough moves through the
desert SW and slides up towards the Midwest. Guidance has been
pretty all over the place with this system. While the surface low
will be well to our north, the associated cold front does look to
have a chance to sweep across our area. The GFS and Euro are in a
little disagreement on timing of this front, by a good 24 hours.
So knowing that, not going to make any adjustments to the forecast
late in the period. Current forecast has PoPs starting to
increase late Thursday night and peak during the day Friday
around 60-70%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Widespread sometimes dense fog has developed mainly for terminals
west of the Pearl River. IFR/LIFR conditions are possible through
sunrise. Conditions will quickly improve back to VFR later this
morning. Winds will remain a general light southerly direction.
Otherwise, once again we will need to monitor the potential for
additional fog overnight. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Surface high pressure will generally remain east of the local area
through early week. This will keep flow oriented onshore and fairly
light through mid week. Late week, the pressure gradient will
tighten as a surface low develops over West Texas and moves through
the southern portion of the Central Plains. Onshore winds will
strengthen in response to this. Guidance suggests winds of around 15-
20 knots in open Gulf waters Thursday and Friday which would
subsequently bring seas to 3-6 feet. Model consistency has not been
the greatest with this late week system, but regardless an increase
in flow seems likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  60  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  62  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  79  58  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  81  64  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  76  61  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  57  79  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...HL