Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
700 FXUS64 KLIX 251733 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1133 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1113 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 - A substantial cool down Thurs and Fri with morning temps in the 30s and 40s. A few places could briefly touch freezing across SW MS, and within the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainage areas. - Hazardous conditions for small craft this morning and again Wednesday through Thursday, possibly through the entire weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Tonight through Thursday will be quiet overall and cold on the backside of this frontal system thanks to enhanced cold air advection into the area from northerly surface winds. High temperatures will be in the 60s with lows in the 40s, especially Wednesday morning and Thursday mornings. Conditions will be fairly dry overall, so generally a pleasant few days ahead if a bit cold. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Friday and Saturday, cold air advection continues Friday with continuing dry conditions both days. Lows on Friday will be particularly cold with lows in the mid to low 30s across the area north of I-12. We lowered these temperatures 3-4 degrees from NBM to encompass enhanced cooling overnight from cold air advection with clear skies over the drainage basins and the typical overachieving cold air advection on the second day after a front, which commonly occurs in our area. Lows on Saturday will be in the 40s, as we start to warm up a bit again. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s to low 70s as we reintroduce moisutre back into the area, especially Saturday. Sunday into the beginning of next week, a frontal system will move through the area. It looks fairly robust and progressive. General timing will be mostly during the morning and daytime hours on Sunday. Some severe weather could be possible with this system, but a lot could change given it is so far out in time. We will keep monitoring for changes. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. Temporary drop to MVFR conditions is forecast at some area airports for this afternoon as a line of weak storms moves through, lowering ceilings and visibilities. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The actual front will finally move through the coastal waters Wednesday morning as deepening comma low rolls into the Great Lakes Region. The combination of cold air advection over the relatively warm waters, and the pressure gradient between the high and low will cause winds to strengthen into the 20-25kt range and Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Wednesday afternoon through at least midday Thursday. As the high settles into the area later in the week, winds will ease and turn back to the southeast as the high shifts east of the area by Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 51 64 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 53 69 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 53 70 38 63 / 20 0 0 0 MSY 59 71 47 64 / 10 0 0 0 GPT 56 71 42 62 / 30 0 0 0 PQL 54 72 37 62 / 40 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW