Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
789 FXUS64 KLIX 072000 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 200 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 154 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 - Dense Fog probability relatively high for tonight thru Saturday morning, main along interstate corridors in LA. - An Arctic front will bring temperatures to near or below freezing on Tuesday morning along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. Now is a good time to start winterizing your outdoor areas such as covering pipes and being prepared to cover plants. - Higher winds (20-30kt) and seas (7-12ft) hazardous to small crafts are likely Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning, wind gusts could approach gale-force. Highest winds and seas will be 20nm or farther offshore. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 154 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 An upper level trough digging southeastward into the northern and mid Mississippi Valley. This completely suppressed upper ridge aloft that was already pretty flat by now. At the same time, surface height falls across east Texas to the Great Lakes induced by this upper trough is creating increase pressure gradient locally. With surface ridge centered east of the local area, increase in southerly flow started low level moisture flux from the Gulf but is not column uniform moisture increase. Areal obs do however show a solid 10 degree jump in dewpoints at the surface. That`ll play into fog potential tonight. NBM probs as well as MAV/MET all point towards decent chance for fog to develop. Model soundings show just how shallow the fog is, like 100 feet or so, plus 10-15 knot winds not too high off the surface. Leaves me with hesitation to issue a fog advisory right now. Radar imagery this afternoon has shown convection really struggling. Should be no surprise with PW`s not even close to 1.5". A storm or 2 possible, especially along/in the coastal areas but am doubtful of real severe potential. This is especially so given lack of moisture and time limitation of remaining sunlight. Less subtle clue is low amplitude gravity waves moving southeastward across LA and MS. While not what`ll suppress convection...definitely a sign of the existence of stable layer aloft. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 154 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 A secondary shortwave within the base of the main upper level trough to the north will really push the base of it southward Saturday. This will drive arctic airmass southward into LA, reaching the CWA probably around midnight Saturday night. Although sparse showers will be possible right along the boundary, not thinking there will be much if any impacts locally. But like most cold fronts this early in the falls season, its a once and done cold snap with temps jumping 20 degrees or so in a just 48 hrs. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Although most terminals are in VFR attm, doesn`t mean without impacts. Its been somewhat breezing with gusts varying from 10 to 20 mph, though at least relatively consistent south direction. Scattered showers have developed across the region but coverage will steadily decrease this evening. Shallow but high moisture content will bring back the chance for LIFR or VLIFR visibilities tonight at most terminals. MEFFER 6&& .MARINE... Issued at 154 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Southerly flow is decently established with surface ridge to the east and pressure falls to the west/northwest. Appreciable marine impacts don`t come until Sunday morning when strongest cold front of the season rolls through. Expect at least Small Craft conditions for about 24 hrs with small window where Gale winds occur late Sunday. All headlines (not up yet but will be) drop Monday afternoon with eventual rotation of winds back to onshore again mid week. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 60 81 56 66 / 10 10 30 10 BTR 62 83 60 70 / 0 10 20 10 ASD 60 80 60 72 / 0 0 20 10 MSY 65 83 65 74 / 0 0 20 10 GPT 62 79 62 73 / 0 0 20 10 PQL 60 80 60 74 / 0 0 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME