Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
355 FXUS64 KLIX 180630 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1230 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1148 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Areas of dense fog possible during the early morning hours on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. - Above normal temperatures expected through Saturday. - A cold front will bring higher rain chances to the area on Friday. - Hazardous marine conditions due to stronger southerly winds on Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1148 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Overall another warm and quiet day while the evening has generally been quiet as well. Biggest question for the overnight hours is fog. Still looks like we will get areas to widespread fog but dense fog may be a little more patchy. Greatest potential for dense fog appears to be coastal MS and along the river valleys. Dense Fog Adv was just issued for coastal MS including Pearl River but it may need to be expanded for portions of SELA and perhaps SW MS during the early morning hours. For the next few days fog is still the greatest concern. Fog will quickly lift this morning giving way to strato-cu by mid to late morning. H925 temps of 16-18C will yield highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s today and tomorrow. And that may actually be the biggest negative with respect to fog, how much we actually heat up. Other than that conditions look quite good for decent radiational fog. High pressure over the area leading to light winds, clear skies, and rather humid BL conditions. All of this with the exception of the higher boundary layer moisture will promote good radiational cooling conditions, the one possible problem could be the overnight lows. Can we cool off enough. We appear to be doing that tonight in a few areas but as mentioned in an earlier discussion we probably need to get to the upper 50s to really get areas to widespread dense fog. The afternoon dewpoints dropped into the lower 60s most around 60 and 61. That would favor lows needing to get to at least the lower 60s if not upper 50s to get areas to widespread dense fog. That may be the issue again tonight as temps may not get much beyond the cross-over temp. The other problem right now is LL winds have strengthened and that appears to be leading to more4 stratus than fog but if those winds die down just a touch it could easily fall to the sfc as fog. However, that doesn`t seem to be the issue Tuesday tonight. It looks like winds will be much lighter in the LL and that will increase the dense fog concern. Almost all of the guidance is very bullish for fog and dense fog Wednesday morning. Looks fairly similar Wednesday night/Thursday morning for fog. Favorable conditions and models continue to be bullish for that day as well. As we get into Thursday things will begin to evolve some with a few WAA/isentropic lift showers possible as early as Thursday afternoon but more likely Thursday night. Highs Thursday may be a touch cooler mainly thanks to an increase in cloud cover and a little of a breeze. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Monday night) Issued at 1148 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 The extended forecast continues to trend less and less active. what once looked like a rather impactful end of the week and beginning of the weekend looks like we may struggle to get much rain at all. That said this isn`t the first time this has happened over the last month we have seen models target a day or two multiple times about 6-7 days out only to see the system coming out of the southwest de-amplify and struggle to bring us much rain. It looks like once again a system will move into the southern Plains much weaker than initially thought and ride over the ridge bringing us more of a glancing blow Friday/Saturday with a front struggling to make it much through the area. At this time it appears the best chance for rain would be Friday and Friday night as better mid lvl support moves across the Lower MS Valley. But the front will still be well back to the west and instability will be quite limited thus maybe only isolated thunderstorms. Rain chances begin to tank overnight Friday/early Saturday as ridging quickly starts to redevelop over TX and into the LA. The ridge will then dominate the region through the weekend as a large cutoff low over the Baja Saturday may only get into northwestern Mexico by midday Monday. This will continue to lead to well above normal temps this weekend and going into next week. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Still concerned with dense fog tonight. Conditions still remain favorable for fog and low stratus to form at all of the terminals but not too confident it will be dense. There was a good deck of cirrus overhead but that is clearing and at least a 3rd of the area has already cleared out. Fog developed rather quick last night but may take a little longer tonight. Expect some terminals to start showing reduction in vsbys around 5/6z and then expand across the area and likely get worse for terminals on the northern half of the CWA. South may be more of a low cloud issue but even some vsby restriction will occur. Conditions will start to slowly improve after 14z but by 15z most if not all terminals will at least be in MVFR status if not VFR. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1148 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Surface high pressure will generally remain centered, east of the local area through Thursday with light onshore flow. Friday, a surface low will move into the Mid Mississippi Valley with a trailing cold front moving into the area late Friday and towards the coast Saturday. Slightly stronger onshore winds will occur in response to the surface low and approaching front. However, confidence is low that we may need headlines this weekend. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 80 59 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 81 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 79 59 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 78 64 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 75 62 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 77 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB