Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
674 FXUS64 KLIX 111112 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 512 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 511 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Little or no rain expected through Saturday. - A strong cold front will bring low rain chances Sunday. - Colder weather to start off the next workweek. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 953 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The short term period will see dry conditions hold as northwesterly flow pushes drier air into the area. This shows in our RH values Thursday afternoon dropping down below 50%. Following the frontal boundary pushing through, we will see afternoon high temperatures on Thursday drop below average in the low 60s for most areas. By later in the day Thursday, flow will be shifted back to onshore which will help return some moisture to the area and warm us up a bit. Friday temperatures swing right back the other way thanks to that onshore flow, above the climate normals for this time of year with highs in the low 70s. Friday night we will have to keep an eye on the fog potential as some models are already hitting on that. With the moisture return from the onshore flow, the environment could look good for fog. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 953 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Heading into Saturday we will see a quick upper level shortwave swing through the region, bringing some rain chances with it. The area with the best chance of seeing any rain is NW areas with a 25-35% chance, while further south we see a 15-20% chance. Sunday a deep upper level trough will slide across the Midwest, with a cold front associated with it sweeping across much of the central and eastern U.S to end the weekend. Very early Sunday morning we see rain chances ~40-50% with the highest chances once again for areas further north. Not a great environment for storms, wouldn`t be surprised to even go completely thunder free. Monday morning will be one of our colder mornings thus far, with lows in the low to mid 20s across areas north of the lake and coastal MS while the low to mid 30s across areas south of the lake. Do not be surprised to see some cold headlines in place for Sunday night into Monday morning. This also brings rather cool afternoon highs on Monday, only warming into the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Flipping to onshore flow will once again warm us back up pretty quickly, so not a very long lasting cold by any means. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 VFR conditions through the period for all local terminals. Winds will be highest this morning for NEW before slightly decreasing this afternoon. Otherwise, light and variable winds through the period elsewhere. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 953 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A cold front moving through the coastal waters will briefly increase winds and seas again tonight into Thursday, with 15 to 20 knot sustained winds and 3-4 foot seas expected over most waters. This brings exercise caution headlines through mid Thursday morning. Another front will move through the waters late in the weekend, with 15 to 20 knot winds again expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 59 41 68 50 / 0 0 10 20 BTR 61 43 72 54 / 0 0 20 10 ASD 60 42 70 51 / 0 0 10 10 MSY 60 49 73 57 / 0 0 10 10 GPT 58 45 69 54 / 0 0 10 10 PQL 60 41 70 50 / 0 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....HL AVIATION...RDF MARINE...HL