Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
363 FXUS64 KLIX 031105 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 505 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 942 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 It`s a chilly one out there to start the first full week of November! Temperatures remain on track to bottom out in the low to mid 40`s areawide, with "warmer" locations including the southshore and SE LA protected by lakes/sounds and water in the upper 40`s to low 50`s, and colder locations being SW MS, the Pearl River/Pascagoula Drainage basins and interior SE MS where some upper 30`s are looking likely. Not quite cold enough for frost, but did see some potential for the Pearl River valley. No adjustments to temperatures really, just hitting the aforementioned drainage basins cooler by a few degrees. We`ll warm up later today in the upper 60`s to low 70`s underneath ample sunshine. Reason for the cool/dry air is evident on H5 maps, showing ample upstream confluence west of the departing east- coast trough while at the surface, around 1025mb high dominates the southern US. Proximity CAM soundings for later today illustrate the depth of the continental dry airmass well, as well as strong (albeit shallow) PBL mixing expected later today. Took the typical NBM10pct lowering approach for dewpoints 17-01Z today and Tuesday, which brings minimum RH`s well into the 30`s to a few low 20`s but given the location/nearby proximity of the surface high, winds will relax more going into today and Tuesday. Chilly again Tuesday with the same small edits applied to drainage locations as we remain under control of the nearby surface high. Guidance comes in around 2-3 degrees warmer generally, but kept the basins colder into the upper 30`s to low 40`s. Tuesday promises to be yet another gorgeous day full of sunshine and blue skies, with highs in the mid 70`s. No complaints here. KLG && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 942 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 By mid-week, the main story becomes how the upper-level pattern transitions to quasi-zonal to eventually large-scale, anomalously strong ridging over most of the US. Seeing a few indications of around 591-594dm H5 height center over the northern Gulf, supporting nearly positive 3 to 4 sigma according to H5 standardized anomalies. That`s well enough to support anomalously warm temperatures for a large majority of the US including ourselves. NBM deterministic highs continue to confidently range around 79-82 areawide, but wouldn`t be surprised to see a few creeping up to the mid 80`s. Not expecting record- breaking warmth, as climate site records range generally from the mid to primarily upper 80`s/few low 90`s but could get pretty close or within 3-5 degrees at times. Will also monitor the depth/degree of the return flow regime late-week as the earlier surface high builds east in regards to some patchy fog potential Wed-Sat. Then, the next broad shortwave impulse dives in quickly from the northern Plains into the midwest/Ohio valley region surging a cold front across to our north. Seeing long-range indications of (some) light showers around Friday, which appears plausible as southern onshore Gulf return flow cranks up more ahead of the front to the north. This type of regime promotes primarily shallow showers given subtle dynamic ascent in place and is primarily thermodynamic driven in nature. For now, looks to be mainly some isolated showers around, but definitely not a soaker by all means and went with the latest 01Z NBM increase in PoPs from the 10-15% range to now more widespread 15-20%. Will monitor trends but again, low impact for now. KLG .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 942 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast cycle. Winds will remain light to nearly calm this morning, but staying breezy for north-facing shoreline TAF sites like KNEW, where winds will remain persistent at around 12-18kts bearing 360-020. Clear and dry conditions through the day later today with winds around 06-08kts from 17Z-01Z. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for the whole forecast period. Winds will remain light (<10 kts) with the exception for NEW which could have winds closer to 15 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 942 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Moderate offshore flow will persist today, continuing to promote occasionally breezy winds on the order of 8-12kts for Lakes/Sounds and nearshore waters to around 15-18kts for outer 20-60nm zones. Did extend the Exercise Caution headlines slightly east and out to about 18z to account for winds around this range per latest guidance. Additionally seas around 4-6ft will persist in the outer 20-60nm Gulf zones given typical offshore step up in fetch. Overall, high pressure will continue to build into the region mid/late week promoting clear/calm conditions. Could see a few showers around Friday as a frontal boundary nears the area, but impacts at this && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 41 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 70 42 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 69 39 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 70 52 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 69 45 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 69 38 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KLG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...BL MARINE...KLG