068
FXUS64 KLIX 020518
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

 - Rain and storm chances slowly increase today and Friday with
   better chances this weekend.

 - Winds and seas will increase today through this weekend
   leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions.

 - Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast
   LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS
   county expected Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Hurricane Imelda is well off the Atlantic Coast near Bermuda, and
will likely become extratropical during the morning. Troughing to
the west of Imelda extended into southern Alabama, while ridging
extended from the central Great Lakes into Texas. A shortwave was
moving through the northern Plains States.

The weak troughing to the west of Imelda will gradually orient east-
west across the northern Gulf Coast today and Friday. It doesn`t
appear that there will be a well defined surface low pressure
center, but there will be a mid-level circulation. With strong high
pressure centered over New England, this will produce a tighter
pressure gradient, with somewhat stronger easterly winds. This will
be especially true offshore, where easterly winds will increase to
20 knots by midday and continue through Friday. This will gradually
pile up water on east facing shorelines that could begin to produce
minor coastal flooding issues during the high tide cycle toward
sunrise Friday and again late Friday night. Current indications are
that tidal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normally dry ground could
occur in areas prone to coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory
may be issued later today.

Precipitable water values could be approaching the 75th percentile
south of Interstate 10 over the next 36 hours, but are likely to be
between the 25th and 50th percentile across the northwest half of
the area. With the troughing in place, that should allow the
development of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
from about the Interstate 10 corridor southward as early as this
afternoon, but moreso late tonight and Friday. Any heavy rain
through Friday is expected to remain offshore.

High temperatures today probably won`t be much different than
Wednesday afternoon, upper 80s to near 90 in most areas. More mid
and high level clouds, as well as some precipitation, will likely
hold highs in the lower and middle 80s from the Interstate 10
corridor southward, and upper 80s across northwest portions of the
area on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The upper troughing looks to remain in place near the coast through
at least the weekend. There may be a bit more of a weak surface low
pressure reflection over the Gulf this weekend, before it moves west
of the area by Monday. Moisture levels are expected to remain above
normal (median is about 1.4 inches) south of the Interstate corridor
through the weekend, and could overspread the entire area for a
period Saturday night and Sunday. Precipitable water values could
peak out around 2 inches on Sunday, around the 90th percentile. If
there is a favored day for heavy rain, it would probably be Sunday,
with rain chances in the 50 to 70 percent range for most of the
area. Some of that could linger into Monday. Cumulatively, some
areas south of a Gulfport-New Orleans-Houma line could see 2-4
inches of rain or more through Monday. Most of that area would be
able to tolerate that much, assuming it doesn`t fall in a short time
over an urban area. And in some areas, the rain would be welcome, as
September was rather dry with isolated exceptions.

The column begins to dry out on Monday as weak mid level ridging
builds in along the northern Gulf Coast. May not dry out enough to
completely remove precipitation from the forecast, but at least
enough to carry lower rain chances even south of the Interstate
corridor Tuesday and Wednesday.

The coastal flood threat could continue through Saturday into Sunday
morning`s high tide cycle before winds diminish enough to reduce the
threat. Additionally, the astronomical tide ranges will be
diminishing beginning Saturday.

High temperatures over the weekend, while being somewhat cooler than
the last few days, will still be near to above normal (normal 82-
86F). As the column dries out early next week, highs could bump back
up to the upper 80s to around 90. The moist airmass will hold
overnight lows a bit above normal though.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period. Isolated SHRA
have stubbornly held on this evening over southwest Mississippi and
near the west end of Lake Pontchartrain. Localized smoke or fog
at KASD at observation time and will carry MVFR visibility for a
few hours. Better chances for precipitation will be during the
afternoon hours near the coast, and will mention the potential for
thunder with PROB30. May be a brief break toward sunset, but most
guidance is indicating at least isolated SHRA during the late
evening and overnight hours into Friday morning for most terminals
with the exception of KBTR and KMCB. Any precipitation will have
the potential to produce brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A low pressure system in the northern Gulf will lead to rougher
conditions across the coastal waters for the next few days. The
pressure gradient will increase over the coastal waters, and this
will allow for an easterly wind to increase to around 20 knots this
afternoon. These winds will persist through Sunday as strong high
pressure remains over New England and weak low pressure drifts
westward across the Gulf. A fairly long fetch across the eastern
Gulf will allow produce a decent swell, and this will combine with
the wind waves to produce higher seas of up to 9 feet over the open
Gulf waters. The gradient should weaken by the end of the weekend,
with high pressure building in early next week. Due to the rough
conditions expected, the Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to
include all of the open Gulf waters, as well as the sounds and Lake
Borgne through Saturday evening. The advisory may need extended
beyond Saturday evening in later forecasts. Lakes Pontchartrain and
Maurepas will probably need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines
overnight into Friday, and eventually into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  64  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  90  68  86  67 /  10   0  10   0
ASD  88  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
MSY  86  73  82  73 /  20  20  30  20
GPT  86  67  84  68 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  86  64  84  66 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT Saturday
     night for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
     577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT Saturday
     night for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW