566
FXUS64 KLIX 020503
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1203 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Weak ridging was noted over the eastern Gulf, with troughing just
northwest of our CWA during Friday evening. At the surface, a weak
frontal boundary was located just north of Interstate 20.
Thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon was somewhat delayed in
developing, but eventually had scattered areal coverage over about
the northwest 2/3 of the area. By late evening, only isolated
convection remained. High temperatures generally made it into the
lower 90s Friday, with heat index values primarily remaining below
advisory criteria. Evening temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to
mid 80s with dew points in the middle and upper 70s.

Looks like the axis of the upper trough will slide to the east edge
of the CWA by Sunday afternoon, with a trailing shortwave over
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma at that point. That may provide a bit
more of a focus for convection just to the east of our area over
south Alabama, or south of Interstate 10. Forecast wind fields would
also indicate the potential for the front to our north at present to
possibly make it just offshore this weekend. Precipitable water
values that were around 2.2 inches Friday evening will likely
maintain those levels across the eastern half of the area through
Sunday afternoon, but could fall off to as low as 1.8 inches near
and especially west of Interstate 55 by Sunday afternoon. That would
likely mean another afternoon of scattered storms area-wide today as
areas reach their convective temperatures around 90F, then dropping
off to isolated coverage Sunday afternoon for the McComb and Baton
Rouge areas.

Not really anticipating significant changes in high temperatures
from what occurred Friday afternoon for at least the upcoming
afternoon. The warm spot would potentially be near and northwest of
a McComb to Baton Rouge line on Sunday where the drier air may be
residing. At this point, if any areas reach Heat Advisory criteria
either day, it would be expected to be only briefly, with cooling
from thunderstorm outflows producing relief, so no advisories are
planned with the current forecast package. Localized heavy rainfall
is, of course, possible, but widespread issues aren`t expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

As the Kansas/Oklahoma shortwave continues to press southeastward,
reinforcing the base of the trough, it will pull the trough axis a
bit westward, more fully over Louisiana and the lower Mississippi
River Valley Tuesday. It will only slowly drift eastward through the
end of next week.

Aside from perhaps the northwest third of the CWA on Monday, not
going to be able to significantly lower the threat of thunderstorms
in the forecast on any day of the forecast. The greatest threat
based on medium range MOS guidance looks to be on Tuesday. Of
course, with precipitable water values remaining near or above 2
inches, localized heavy rainfall won`t be able to be ruled out, but
widespread issues are not anticipated.

No significant targets of opportunity for temperature adjustments at
this time. If there was going to be a change, a nudge upward perhaps
on Monday, but it`s usually counter-productive to make a one to two
degree adjustment. With the highest PoPs in the MOS guidance being
on Tuesday, the lower high temperatures in the NBM guidance on
that day also makes sense, but not sure I would be comfortable
carrying the mid 80s that some of the guidance is advertising
across extreme southern Alabama Tuesday. Any day to day changes in
low temperatures are going to be more of a function of rain-
cooled air from thunderstorms, so no adjustments to lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Areal coverage of convection diminished rapidly after 03z, with only
isolated SHRA remaining. Any threat of TSRA over land for the rest
of the night is too small to carry in the forecast. Low clouds
and/or fog may be a bit more of a threat at KMCB, where they had
about a quarter inch of rain around sunset. That would tend to
promote development of an inversion with low clouds and/or fog a bit
more than if it had occurred earlier in the afternoon. Any of those
lower conditions that do develop should mix out pretty quickly by
about 14z. Initial development of cumulus should occur by late
morning. We are looking at another day where timing and areal
coverage of TSRA will be a concern. Expect most development to be in
the afternoon hours, and considering PoPs in guidance, will use
TEMPO at all terminals for TSRA. Will carry mention of SHRA beyond
00z Sunday, but would assume that one or more terminals will end up
with TSRA for an hour or two beyond that point. Just not confident
in which one.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Outside of convective impacts, conditions will remain benign across
the coastal waters. Areal coverage of thunderstorms will probably
remain on the scattered side with diurnal maxima from late night
through about midday over the open waters, and during the afternoon
and early evening over the lakes and sounds. A few strong storms
will be possible each day/night, and could result in gusty winds,
waterspouts, and locally higher waves/seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  72  90  70 /  70  30  30  10
BTR  93  75  92  73 /  70  30  30  10
ASD  92  72  91  72 /  80  40  60  30
MSY  93  78  93  78 /  70  40  60  30
GPT  92  75  91  75 /  80  50  70  40
PQL  91  73  90  73 /  80  60  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW