Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
497 FXUS64 KLIX 190404 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1104 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Saturday looks to be our last day of elevated PoPs for the next few days as residual moisture is still available. Coverage will however be more limited than the last few days, scattered at best, with lower PWATs around 2 inches. PoPs peak in the early to mid afternoon hours around 60%. This decrease in thunderstorm coverage does come with an increase in temperatures unfortunately, but still around climate normals for this time of year. Heat indices will also increase, up to the 105F, but will remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Sunday looks to be a different story in terms of Heat Advisory criteria. Heat indices look to be right around or even just above criteria, in the 105-109F range. Surface high pressure begins to build in from the west, bringing drier conditions through the early week. Thunderstorm coverage will be even less on Sunday than Saturday, with PWATS likely dropping below 2 inches. The NBM seems a little bit hot with the PoPs, so lowered them a touch to ~20-25%. Even just the air temperatures will be back up into the mid 90s for the entire area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 As ridging builds in from the east Sunday into early next week, precipitable water values fall back into the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range, which is much closer to climatological means for late July. Rain chances in the 20 to 40 percent range may actually be overstating things for Sunday through Tuesday, and it wouldn`t be a shock if much of the area remained dry during that period. That`s going to allow high temperatures to heat up several degrees into the lower and middle 90s. Looks like we`ll have borderline Heat Advisory criteria for portions of the area Sunday afternoon, and more solidly criteria level for Monday and Tuesday. Not quite enough confidence to pull the trigger on an advisory for Sunday yet, but the potential is there. An easterly wave is expected to move through the northern Gulf for Wednesday and Thursday, but some uncertainty as to whether the precipitation shield with that system remains over the Gulf of spreads into portions of the area. That will be the difference between scattered storms and highs around 90, or mostly dry and highs in the mid 90s. Will hang with the NBM numbers for now. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals as all the convection has come to an end. VFR conditions will continue overnight and into early Saturday. Convection will likely fire sometime late Saturday morning and continue until the later afternoon hours. With coverage expected to be more limited in nature, went with only PROB30 at each terminal. && .MARINE... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Winds are expected to remain light through the period as high pressure gradually builds in. Additionally convection coverage is expected to continue decreasing into the weekend, with isolated to scattered at best for Saturday and isolated at best beyond that. Moisture returns to the area around mid week, bringing coverage back up. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 91 72 93 / 20 50 10 20 BTR 75 91 75 93 / 10 60 10 30 ASD 74 91 74 93 / 20 40 10 30 MSY 78 92 78 94 / 10 50 10 30 GPT 77 90 76 92 / 20 40 10 30 PQL 75 91 75 93 / 30 40 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...HL MARINE...HL