059
FXUS64 KLIX 160802
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
202 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Above normal temperatures expected through the start of next week.

- Some patchy dense fog could develop tonight, especially along
  river drainage basins. Remember to slow down and use your low
  beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 156 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Dense fog advisory has been issued for a large portion of the
area. This should be a patchy dense situation so not all areas
will see reduced vis. There has been some smoldering fire activity
over the last few days that will add to the lower vis as well and
these areas could see vis fall to near or at zero in super fog.
The type is radiational so we expect it to remain away from heat
islands like cities and heavily traveled roadways. But, moisture
levels have risen over the last 24 hours bringing up the
possibility that these heat island areas could also see some fog
by sunrise. If this looks like it will be the case, we will spread
the advisory into these areas later this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

At the surface we will continue to see high pressure centered to
the east of us dominate the pattern. This surface high pressure
paired with our area sitting on the eastern side of an upper level
ridge will keep conditions relatively dry in terms of
precipitation. These dry conditions look to last through the short
term period. Additionally, that upper level ridge will allow us
to see warmer conditions, which we already saw a little of
earlier Saturday. Each day is expected to see afternoon high
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

The main story of the short term will continue to be the potential
for fog development. Conditions tonight once again look favorable
for some fog development, however it is looking to be more patchy
than widespread. We look to see some high clouds move in
gradually through the night which may somewhat limit our
radiational cooling to an extent. Models are hitting areas north
of Baton Rouge the most and expect the river basins to also see a
better chance for this patchy dense fog. Regardless of this, with
ongoing fires in the Atchafalaya basin and that lining up with the
areas of the best fog probabilities, there remains a chance for
localized super fog in these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Into the long term period, our upper level ridge is mostly
flattened out by a shortwave trough tracking across the Central
Plains. Additionally, onshore flow starts to pick up towards mid
week helping to increase our moisture across the area. Our
warming trend looks to peak on Wednesday as we see high
temperatures reach the mid 80s for a good chunk of the area. It is
worth noting, Baton Rouge has a high temperatures record
Wednesday of 86 set in 1903, our current forecasted high is 85.
While there is still plenty of time for the forecast to change,
the fact that our forecast is so close to record values shows how
unseasonably warm we will be. Climate normal highs this time of
year are in the low 70s, so we will be running a good 10 to even
15 degrees above that.

Later in the period our next potential weather maker will move
across the region. A trough looks to dig down through the desert
southwest and slide up towards the Upper Midwest through late
week. Given this is late in the period there are still quite a bur
of uncertainties, but as of now we do see a ramp up in PoPs in the
forecast with ~60% by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Prevailing VFR at all terminals and this holds through the rest of
today. We may see similar conditions to last night, which would
promote fog development, though possibly less coverage. Likely
more of a patchy dense situation rather than widespread. Timing
would be a couple hours before sunrise until just after sunrise.
Given this patchy fog, IFR to LIFR conditions at some terminals
will be possible due to visibility. After sunrise the fog will
burn off and all terminals return to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Surface high pressure will generally remain centered over the
Southeast US through much of the forecast period. This will allow
for a continuation of onshore flow. Overall, the flow should remain
light with favorable winds and seas through the weekend and into the
start of next week. Progressing into late next week, a cold front
moving through will bring the potential for hazardous winds and
seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  57  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  79  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  82  61  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  55  78  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ037-039-
     056>060-065>068-071-076-079>086-088-090.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ070-071-
     077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL