Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
228 FXUS64 KLIX 062044 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 244 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 1. This morning`s round of light to moderate rain has been moving across the entire CWA in a southwest to northeast orientation and is currently along the coastal LA parishes and coastal MS counties. It should clear the area by early this evening. Light accumulations up to 0.5" are expected. Additional light rainfall could occur with a final round of precip association with the frontal passage on Sunday where scattered showers could redevelop across more areas including more inland areas. 2. Another shot of colder air will come from a stronger cold front late on Sunday. Colder air from this front won`t arrive until Monday so the coldest night of the forecast period will see temperatures near freezing in southwest MS and adjacent parishes on Tuesday morning. 3. Dense Fog is likely in areas of coastal Terrebonne and Lafourche and over the waters of the adjacent marine areas west of the MS R. && .UPDATE... Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Further evaluation of the potential for dense fog in the near shore waters and coastal waters of Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes discussed earlier, leads to less confidence of occurrence. The frontal boundary seems to be remaining entrenched well offshore and this lowers the favorable parameters for fog development. We aren`t totally ruling out fog formation and the situation will be reviewed further by the evening shift. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1051 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The lingering, near stationary front just offshore is still providing a focus for the rains we`ve been seeing into this morning. It will slowly move northward through tomorrow and another round of scattered, light showers is expected tomorrow with accumulations only in the low tenths. Lingering surface low pressure over the far southwest parishes, Terrebonne and Lafourche, and neighboring coastal waters will support winds, temperatures, and dewpoints that make Dense Sea Fog a possibility. Elsewhere in the CWA, conditions are expected to include cloud cover, north winds, and moisture levels that are not conducive to fog formation. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1051 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Next week medium range models are in agreement initially. All indicate the L/W trough moving through and setting up across the eastern CONUS/Atlantic coast next week. There are some differences though in the amplitude of the pattern over the CONUS but that is more during the second half of the work week. With the models overall in fair enough agreement we will just stick with the latest NBM. The biggest possible Target of Opportunity looks to be Tuesday morning and that may be the only real deviation from the NBM. The L/W trough finally slides east of the Lower MS Valley Sunday night finally ushering a cold front completely through the area. Drier air will finally filter in with high pressure building in from the northwest. However the sfc high will not quite be over the area Monday night still trying to build to the southeast while the center of it will be well northeast of the area. The reason for that is that even though the L/W trough axis will be east of the area the pattern initially will be zonal aloft. A s/w coming out of the Pacific northwest will be diving down the backside of it moving through the Lower MS Valley Tuesday. That finally puts the region under northwest flow aloft. In addition we still may be tapped into the subtropical jet which could keep high clouds lingering over the area. All of this will have a negative impact on radiational cooling efficiency. The deterministic NBM is once again at the high end of the probabilities and is either right at or above the 90th percentile. This would typically make you question it and see if we would be colder however, the MOS products are actually warmer and given the not favorable radiational cooling set up I see no reason to adjust Tuesday morning lows at this time which range from right near freezing over southwest MS to lower/mid 40s over coastal SELA. As for the rest of the forecast we will remain dry Monday through at least Thursday and possibly through the work week. Monday and Tuesday morning will be the coldest period in the current forecast with temperatures slowly beginning to moderate Tuesday. [CAB/DSS] && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 SHRA- across the southeastern half of the area have and associated lowered CIGs have KGPT/KASD/KNEW/KHUM at IFR to MVFR. KBRT/KMCB/KHDC/KHUM are at MVFR to VFR. As the light rain continues to move east through the evening hours CIGs will improve to IFR overnight. KHUM does show some lowered ceilings associated with a stratus deck in the hours around sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1051 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Marine conditions are generally benign with winds out of the east at about 10 kt. There is some shower activity associated with the stalled front. Marine Dense Fog can become an issue overnight in the inner waters west of the MS R. A stronger cold front will push through Sunday night with offshore winds of 15 to 20 knots developing. Small craft headlines will likely be needed for portions of the coastal waters overnight and into Monday. High pressure quickly builds back into the area Monday night into Tuesday and winds and seas will relax through midweek, becoming onshore by later in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 44 66 44 54 / 10 40 50 0 BTR 48 71 46 58 / 10 50 50 0 ASD 46 68 46 59 / 20 30 60 0 MSY 52 69 50 59 / 20 30 50 0 GPT 49 67 49 59 / 20 30 60 0 PQL 46 67 46 59 / 30 30 50 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...DS MARINE...DS