Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
408 FXUS64 KLIX 100327 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 927 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 925 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Temperatures will moderate Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday through at least Saturday. - Little or no rain expected through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Updated ZFP to lower overnight lows several degrees, as much of the area has fallen to, or below forecast mins. Temperatures could still fall another couple degrees in the next 3 hours or so before cirrus arrives from the northwest. Beyond that point, temperatures will either flatten out or even rise a few degrees prior to sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The sun is shining, the skies are clear and the rain is gone. Finally after what has seemed like a week of dreary cloudy rainy conditions we have finally broken free with a drier period coming up. Dry northwesterly flow aloft will persist through most of the week around the base a upper trough parked over the northeastern US. Upper ridging over the western US will continue to strengthen allowing for re-enforcing pushes of dry air aloft into the area. An elongated area of surface high pressure will slowly drift over Georgia today leading to rather light winds slowly becoming southerly by this evening. The only potential weather outside of severe clear is a slight hint of patchy ground fog late tonight into early Wednesday morning across the Florida Parishes and into southern Mississippi. HREF and SREF probabilities of less than 1 mile are floating around 50 to 60 percent. This was enough of a signal across the guidance to support at least adding the mention of patchy to areas of fog across these areas after midnight tonight. Confidence on if it will last long enough or dense enough to warrant anything more than a mention in the forecast is too low at this time. Other than that enjoy the mild temperatures with highs climbing into the mid 60s tomorrow and lows tonight flirting in the upper 30s across areas north of I-10/12 and 40s south of I-10/12. BB-8 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Hope everyone got their fix of rain in as the forecast remains rather dry for the foreseeable future. Dry northwesterly flow should persist through most of the week with only a couple weak shortwaves progressing through the pattern. These weak systems will only be enough to provide a re-enforcing shot of drier air and maybe some increased upper level cloud cover Thursday into Friday. The pattern roadblock appears to possibly break down by the end of the weekend into early next week as the upper ridge to our west and the trough over New England slowly starts to move and lift out. Rain chances remain limited until then with rain chances beginning to increase Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly moderate throughout the weekend with highs steadily climbing back into the 70s by Thursday and Friday then holding steady in the 60s through early next week as clouds and rain potential start to move in. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Primarily VFR conditions through the forecast period. Could be a little bit of radiation fog around sunrise. For now, will only include TEMPO MVFR visibilities at KHDC and KHUM, but threat is non-zero elsewhere. Dry cold frontal passage during the midday hours on Wednesday, but forecast soundings indicate it may be tough to even get any clouds. Sustained winds could get up to around 15 knots briefly, but should relax again by sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Conditions have slowly subsided this morning and should be more favorable for marine operations, at least regarding winds and waves through Thursday. Winds will become more onshore by mid to late week leading to the potential of sea fog developing. At this time, the only window where dew points might support fog development would be perhaps Friday and Saturday. The next frontal passage will probably be over the weekend, and may need wind/wave headlines at that point. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 35 66 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 37 69 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 36 68 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 41 70 47 64 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 38 66 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 34 67 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BB LONG TERM....BB AVIATION/UPDATE...RW MARINE...BB