Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
437 FXUS64 KLIX 140512 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1212 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Overall it was another hot dry day yesterday but surprisingly not everyone stayed dry. in the mid to late afternoon there was actually a few storms that developed. That was contained to mainly a few parishes and one coastal MS county but even with the rather dry environment we still had a couple storms. Today will likely be a carbon copy of yesterday and even though the forecast won`t specifically show any rain, can not rule out a few isolated storms during the afternoon once again. The most likely location to see those one or two storms could be along the SELA coastal parishes. As the ridge starts to slide more to the north there could be some very subtle lift across the coast. The one locations with maybe just enough moisture to tap into should be along the SELA coast. For the rest of the area the ridge will still have enough of a hold on the region to lead to another rather warm day. We have been mixing to above h8 the last few days including up to h7 on Friday. Very likely to mix above h8 again today which should lead to another low humidity day with much of the area seeing dewpoints fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. This will also lead to highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s again. Looking at the tides, as we have been mentioning for the past 3-4 days probabilistic extra-tropical surge guidance had been advertising minor coastal flood potential for this weekend but really hammering more on today and Monday. That has now backed off. Yes we are moving into the peak of the monthly spring tide but this set up was never a set up for coastal flooding. Typically we need some fetch to setup over the central and eastern Gulf for a few days out of the SE or ESE and that never occurred. With the guidance finally backing off the risk of needing a coastal flood advisory doesn`t appear necessary. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Last week models were trying to advertise some rather extreme temps through the first half of the work week. It will still be warm and above normal but nothing as extreme as models were indicating. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement through the week and the NBM looks consistent. With that no deviations made to the extended forecast from the latest NBM. The ridge that has been providing us this mid September heat will continue to work north and the base of the east coast L/W trough closing off along the sern CONUS coast. It will be rather large likely providing some mild influence as far west as the lower MS Valley which may keep the highs generally in the lower 90s instead of widespread mid 90s. As the closed mid lvl low starts to fill and merge with the main flow the ridge will flatten as a L/W trough develops over the central CONUS. This may allow for a few more storms to develop during the afternoon but we are still looking at only isolated at the best Thu and Fri. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 VFR conditions are currently in place and unless the one or two storms that could develop this afternoon moves directly over any one of those terminals it will remain in VFR status. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Weak surface high pressure will remain in control across the coastal waters through the first half of the work week. Winds will be fairly light with generally a easterly component over the waters. The inner waters, sounds, and tidal lakes will continue to be influenced by daily fluctuations from sea/lake breeze to land breeze. Waves/seas will generally be in the 1-2 ft for nearshore and protected waters with 2-4 ft in the outer waters. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 92 69 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 90 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 92 73 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 90 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 91 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB