Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
422 FXUS64 KLIX 151808 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 108 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 107 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Best chance of showers and storms will be this Saturday and Sunday as a cold front enters the area late Saturday - Outside of Saturday and Sunday, the forecast is generally dry and warm for the area && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Upper level ridge with a closed high is centered over eastern Texas currently. This is helping keep the area relatively dry, rain-free and warm during the afternoon. With the lower humidity in place, low temperatures will reach the upper 50s to 60s. This will hang out for the next day or so before migrating eastward. Once this starts moving the winds will turn and onshore flow will begin to return moisture to the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Friday will be more of the same as today and Thursday, but we`ll have a bit of a pattern change as the upper level high moves eastward and moisture is pumped back into the area. A shortwave passes through the area and looks to clip at least along/north of the I-10/I-12 corridor. While there is definitely potential for convection Saturday night into Sunday, based on the current model trends, thinking the best environment, particularly shear, will be to our northwest in the ArkLaTex region. However, there is some close to marginal environmental support with a little bit of CAPE, so trends will have to be continue to be monitored. Once we are into the new work week, we go back to being dry for the foreseeable future. Temperatures and dew points will be a bit higher than this week too since southeasterly flow continues. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 TAFs are VFR through the whole forecast period. Winds should generally be less than 10 knots and barely (if any) clouds in the sky. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast by Thursday and Friday. Winds will remain more variable and near or below 10 knots while seas remain below 2 feet today. Winds will turn more east-southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots on Thursday and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters over the weekend, and this will further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots Friday night. Seas will respond and increase to 4 to 6 feet in the open Gulf waters. After the front moves through on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 59 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 61 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 59 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 67 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 63 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 59 87 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BL LONG TERM....BL AVIATION...BL MARINE...BL