Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
178 FXUS65 KLKN 060912 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 212 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 101 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 * Near freezing temperatures in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday and Monday night. * Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday. * Gusty south to southwest winds in Central Nevada Thursday afternoon. * Precipitation chances return to the forecast both Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Another cold morning, with patchy fog and isolated areas of freezing fog, though most locations are expected to frost out later this morning. The cold mornings continue with patchy frost Tuesday morning, and even into Wednesday morning, especially for the valleys of Elko and Eureka Counties. High temperatures gradually moderate into the mid to upper 70s through Thursday with dry conditions. Winds will also increase on Thursday as a long-wave trough digs southward along the Pacific Northwest Coast and deep southwesterly flow develops across California and Nevada. A wide swath of the region from southern Elko County through northern Nye County has a 60-80% chance for max wind gusts in excess of 35 mph on Thursday. Moisture looks to increase into Friday, with greatest confidence in precipitation across northeastern Nye and into White Pine Counties with subtropical moisture streaming northeast, in part from the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla across the Eastern Pacific and Gulf of California. Best chances for thunderstorms will also be across these areas of southeastern and east-central Nevada Friday before the main trough and surface cold front move eastward into this weekend. This will bring snow levels down with increasing chances for mountain snow returning for this weekend along with high temperatures dropping back below normal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a dry pattern and warming trend through Thursday. Winds increase into Thursday with highest confidence (60-80%) in gusts of at least 35 mph across northern Nye, White Pine, and southern Eureka Counties. Forecast confidence remains fairly low this weekend with long- range ensemble cluster scenarios nearly evenly split as to timing of the main trough axis and associated surface cold front late Saturday into Sunday. Nearly half of the clusters lag the system into Sunday, with more clusters coming into agreement that a closed upper low will stall along the California Coast as additional energy pivots southward from the Gulf of Alaska. This outcome would lead to more unsettled conditions with scattered showers and mountain snow showers into early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period across all terminals with light winds 5 to 10 kt primarily from the east- northeast, with lower confidence in southerly winds at times at KTPH from 20Z through 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns continue to remain low for the next several days. Temperatures will return to the 70s by mid week and minimum RH values will remain above critical thresholds. Still watching the potential for strong winds and additional precipitation Thursday through the weekend as another upper trough and surface frontal system look to travel across Nevada. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...84 AVIATION...84 FIRE WEATHER...94