Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
845 FXUS65 KLKN 300900 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 154 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025 * A stronger and wetter weather system will affect northern and central Nevada Tuesday. * Unsettled weather across the north after mid-week but confidence remains low-moderate in the forecast at this time. * Much cooler morning low temperatures possible during the weekend with readings in the 20s and 30s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 154 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025 No changes to forecast at this time. Storm system and associated boundary are progressing across the region as expected. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue for Tuesday with activity waning through the afternoon from west to east. Winds will continue out of the southwest with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s. Skies will be mostly cloudy to start the morning but will gradually becoming partly to mostly sunny from west to east. Look for mainly dry conditions during the overnight on Tuesday with lows in the 40s. A weak impulse is expected to pass north of the forecast area on Wednesday, affecting only the northern sections of the forecast area with light showers. The area being focused upon is I-80 north. Chances for precipitation are around twenty to thirty percent. Highs will continue to be in the 70s with another breezy afternoon in store with gusts to 20 to 25 mph. Light shower activity will remain in the north with only a fifteen to perhaps twenty percent chance during the overnight with lows in the 40s. For Thursday and Friday model simulations are showing another upper low dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest states. The progression of this system is expected to be south across California. This will bring an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms over the forecast area. Highs will be in the 70s on Thursday but will cool into the 60s on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s Thursday night with readings in the 30s. Look for mainly dry conditions Saturday through Monday with isolated showers possible in eastern Nevada Saturday. Highs will be cool with readings in the 60s Saturday and 50s and 60s on Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high on the incoming storm system. No changes have been made to the NBM. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected at all terminals, with intermittent conditions (MVFR or lower) possible in the heavier showers. A cold front will progress from west to east by Tuesday morning. This will bring -SHRA/-TSRA over the area, though heavier showers can bring IFR/MVFR. S-SW10-15G20-25KT through the early evening hours, though any TS can bring gusty and erratic winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns with this forecast. Showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday, but the strongest and wettest period looks to be today through tomorrow afternoon, with all zones having at least a 30% chance of wetting rain and zones 424/427/438/469 having 80% or higher. Afternoon winds continue to look breezy, but min RH values will be well above critical thresholds, preventing any serious fire weather threats. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...94