Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
435 FXUS65 KLKN 020852 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 152 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 148 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025 * Strong Fall trough to bring beneficial rainfall across Northeastern Nevada Thursday into Friday. * Much cooler temperatures expected Friday through the beginning of next week with highs in the 50s and 60s, and overnight lows in the 20s to 30s. * Temperature will recover back into the 60s and 70s mid week, but low chances for showers will accompany the warm-up && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) Precipitation chance will be on the rise into Thursday afternoon as a strong yet slow moving Fall upper level trough and Closed low dig south from Vancouver Island, BC into the western US. A 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers will be possible tonight through Thursday afternoon for western NV. Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning chances increase to near 90% as scattered to numerous showers, with scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area. This trough will be accompanied by the first atmospheric river of the season and will provide very beneficial rains to Nevada with forecast 3 day rain totals of up to 1.50 for the valleys, up to 3 for the higher elevations including up to a few inches of snow for the high peaks. The other main change with this system will be for much cooler temperatures that will filtering behind a cold front that will pass through Friday. High for the weekend and into Monday with breezy northerly winds will struggle to reach the 60s and overnight lows drop into upper 20s to upper 30s. As this system departs Saturday afternoon a secondary trough will dig south into Nevada while not as strong as the first, it will keep conditions unsettled through Wednesday with low 10% to 25% chance of isolated showers, however temperatures will start to recover Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the mid 60s to mid 70s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is moderate confidence in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms across western NV Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. There is high confidence for scattered to numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms across Nevada along with much cooler temperatures, Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. There is moderate confidence in the development of secondary troughing Tuesday and Wednesday of next week that will lead to a low 10% to 30% of isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the day, but an incoming storm system will bring increasing chances for -SHRA during the late afternoon and evening across the KWMC-KBAM terminals, shifting east and south during the night. Confidence in ISOLD -TSRA developing at any one terminal is too low for inclusion in a TAF at this time. CIGS/VSBY will be MVFR/IFR in the heavier showers. Winds will be breezy across the southern terminals of KTPH and KELY S-SW10-15G25-30KT after 18Z this morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns with this forecast. Minimum RH values will be well above critical thresholds and wind gusts will remain below thresholds. More rain is expected Thursday and Friday, with CWR values through Friday afternoon reaching at least 50% in all zones and sections of far northern Nevada approaching 90%. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...84