134
FXUS63 KLMK 101943
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
243 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread snow showers and snow squalls will move southeastward
  through the region this afternoon bringing minor accumulations of
  snow.

* Very cold weather is expected Tuesday morning, with lows in the
  upper teens to lower 20s. Wind chill values Tuesday morning will
  be in the lower-middle teens.

* Drier pattern for the remainder of the week with a warming trend
  in temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Deep troughing and a closed upper low are swinging through the Ohio
Valley today. This deep troughing and surface troughing has provided
plenty of lift to help promote snow showers. Additionally, steep
lapse rates and ample moisture in the DGZ has also enhanced the snow
development. Looking at satellite, there has been intermittent
sunshine over southern and central Kentucky, which has allowed for
about 100 J/kg of uninhibited SBCAPE to develop. This instability
coupled with freezing or near freezing ground temperatures and gusty
winds has allowed for some snow showers to intensify to snow
squalls. In heavy showers and squalls, observed visibilities 1/2
mile or less have been noted. Since there is intermittent sunshine,
snow is melting soon after falling. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect until 0Z.

This evening, the upper closed low and trough will swing east of the
region, bringing snow chances and clouds with it. High pressure will
pass to the south and winds will back to the southwest overnight.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 20s, and some
cooler spots in the upper teens. Since snow melted during the day
today, and temperatures will be well below freezing tonight, there
is a chance for some slick spots on roads tonight. We should not see
widespread issues, especially in exposed areas, due to the steady
winds overnight helping to dry things out.

On Tuesday, the lower Ohio Valley will be under northwesterly flow,
where a weak shortwave trough will swing just north of the region.
This may bring some very light rain during the day. Though, there is
quite a bit of dry air in the low levels that this precip will have
to overcome. For this reason, going to keep very low-end PoPs for
very light rain. Highs on Tuesday will be warmer, in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tuesday Night through Thursday Night...

During this time, we will remain under northwesterly flow, though it
should remain mostly quiet with high pressure at the surface. We
will see a gradually warming trend with highs in the upper 50s and
low 60s and low temperatures in the 30s.

Thursday night, surface high pressure will begin to shift off to the
east and a LLJ will usher in moisture into the low levels. Aloft,
troughing to the northeast will just brush the lower Ohio Valley and
bring some weak vorticity. This could bring some showers and
possibly some elevated convection.

Friday through Sunday...

Ridging will move over the region and high pressure will continue to
shift off to the east. These features will keep conditions quiet
through Saturday, before a cold front moves through on Sunday night.
This cold front will bring the next chance for showers and storms.

Temperatures will continue to warm into the 60s and possibly the low
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Scattered snow showers are present on radar over the entire region.
Some showers have intensified to snow squalls where snow is heavy
and visibilities drop to 1 mile or lower. Additionally, winds are
gusting up to 25kts through the afternoon. These conditions will
continue through the afternoon and into the evening. After 0Z, snow
showers and clouds will swing east of the region and winds will
begin to relax. Through the overnight, skies will become clear and
winds will be backing to the southwest.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
     for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening
     for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW