831
FXUS63 KLMK 301739
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1239 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Morning rain and possible light snow for the start of the day with
  falling temperatures and brisk gusty winds for the end of the
  weekend.

* Brisk winds and reinforcing cold today will result in wind chill
  values in the upper teens and low 20s.

* Another system will move through the region Monday night into
  Tuesday, bringing a chance for accumulating wintry precipitation.
  Exact precipitation types and amounts is still uncertain, but
  adverse impacts to Monday night/Tuesday morning travel is possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

At this hour, the surface cold front is clearing into eastern KY,
and winds have veered around to the west and northwest across the
area. The band of rain and snow showers along the cold front should
clear out of the Lake Cumberland region in the next hour, with low
clouds continuing behind the front. There are breaks in the stratus
along and west of I-65 as drier air works into the region, and there
should be a mix of clouds and sunshine later today, especially along
and south of the KY Parkways. Cold advection behind the front has
kept temperatures from warming much if at all so far this morning,
and temperatures are expected to remain fairly steady in the 30s
today. While winds should gradually become less gusty this afternoon
as the pressure gradient relaxes, continued 10-15 mph west winds
will keep wind chills in the 20s during the day.

The forecast is in good shape at this time. Minor adjustments were
made to near term temperatures and sky cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 402 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold front entering western KY will push eastward fairly quickly
this morning and should start to enter central KY by around 12z and
then quickly move through the CWA by the afternoon. Radar mosaic has
a band of light to moderate prefrontal precipitation, mainly in the
form of rain stretching from Paoli to Tell City to Owensboro with
winds gusts of 20-25 mph ahead of this with a few gusts near or over
30. Temperatures as of writing the discussion were in the low to
even mid 40s, but KYMesonet showed mid 30s entering the Common
Wealth to the west.

By the time most start the day, a west to east temperatures gradient
of low 30s to the northwest and low 40s to the east-southeas will be
evident. Temperatures will fall or hold steady into the low/mid 30s
through the day with gusty winds out of the west between 20-25 mph.
Most if not all of the precipitation should have exited the area by
late morning with mostly cloudy skies over the area.

High pressure will build in from the west tonight increasing the CAA
over the area tonight with partial clearing and diminishing winds.
Temperatures will fall to near 20 degrees for most locations by
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Confidence remains high for a wintry weather system to bring
potential impacts to central KY/southern IN Monday night. While
confidence is high that this system will bring wintry impacts,
considerable uncertainties remain in wintry p-type, the amounts and
where and who will see what when it is all said and done late
Tuesday.

Sfc high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes Monday morning. Morning lows will be cold with most location
around 20 degrees. A mid-level shortwave trough will work eastward
from the southern Rockies bringing an mP air mass with light snow
expected across the central plains. This disturbance will meet up
and help further development of a sfc low coming out of the Gulf. As
this system develops and sfc high pressie moves east towards the
Atlantic, Gulf moisture will be drawn northward into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys by Monday night along with the Pacific moisture
arrive from the west with the mid-level shortwave. As was mentioned
in the previous discussion, models continue to keep the track of the
sfc low more to the south with the snow/mix/rain line further south
as well.

While the deterministic models slowly come into some agreement,
there remains challenges on overall strength of the dynamics as well
as how much moisture and warm air advection we will see over the
region. The GFS continues to show higher precipitation amounts
compared to the ECMWF but the ECWMF is cooler continuing to show a
more favorable thermal profile for mainly snow. Forecast trend
though has been for less amounts that what had been seen in previous
forecast runs. Given the current trend in guidance over the past
couple of days and the lowering of potential precipitation amounts
with each forecast run, this forecaster tends to agree with the
previous discussion that, as of now, it appears unlikely that this
event will meet warning-level criteria for snow/ice amounts. With so
many unknowns and variables i.e. placement and cutoff of the
rain/freezing rain/sleet snow line which will likely shift a few
more times before Monday, while confidence is high many will see
potential impacts, confidence remains low on all the finer details
when it comes to precipitation amounts and types.

By Tuesday morning, forecast trend does indicate that all
precipitation could change over to all snow for a brief period
before the system quickly moves east by the afternoon. Temperatures
will be in the 30s with mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be quiet and dry as sfc high pressure
is expected to build in over the region. Temperatures will remain
below normal in the upper 30s to near 40 on Wednesday and then a bit
cooler on Thursday as a weak cold front drops in from the north with
maybe just a few flurries but mostly cloudy skies.

The next consistent signal for precipitation shows up by the end of
the week as another shortwave trough coming out of the Four Corners
and Rockies meets up with yet another sfc low developing over the
Gulf. This system looks warmer than the storm expected Monday night
into Tuesday but some wintry mix of rain/snow is still possible at
the onset Friday morning and possibly Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Through the current TAF period, the main concern will be CIGs as a
lingering stratocu field tries to scatter out. With cloud bases
generally between 2-3 kft, categories may bounce between MVFR and
VFR this afternoon into tonight. Winds should steadily ease this
evening and veer from the W/NW to the NE overnight. Confidence in
whether we`ll see VFR/MVFR CIGs overnight is fairly low as stratus
may try to fill in. SDF/LEX/HNB have the best chance for MVFR CIGs
with BWG/RGA having lesser chances. Monday morning, VFR conditions
are expected at all sites as long as the low-level stratus scatters
out as expected. Winds should be around 6-12 kt out of the east
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CSG