434
FXUS63 KLMK 261848
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
148 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds up to 35mph over southern Indiana and northern
  Kentucky today.

* Falling temperatures through the day today. Cooler temperatures
  and dry weather for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

* A low pressure system arrives late Saturday and into Sunday,
  bringing a chance for snow and transitioning to rain. Continuing
  to monitor this system, as small shifts in the track will lead to
  changes in precip type.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 347 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

The secondary cold front has just entered the region from the west
and will quickly sweep east, exiting by sunrise. As the front passes
over, skies will quickly clear out and strong CAA will decrease
temperatures and dew points. By the afternoon, we will see
temperatures fall into the upper 30s and low 40s. Additionally,
gusty westerly winds will push into the region this morning and
steadily increase through the afternoon. Over the northern half of
the region, we will see wind gusts up to 35mph and up to 30mph over
the southern half. For this reason, have issued an SPS for winds
over the northern half of the region for the afternoon. With falling
temperatures and gusty winds, it will definitely feel blustery with
wind chills about 10 degrees cooler than the temperatures.

This afternoon, the low pressure will occlude over the Great Lakes
and send moisture around the back of the low. This will increase
cloud coverage over the northern half of the region. These clouds
will push northeast in the overnight hours. Though, another
shortwave trough will push into the region, which will increase mid
and upper sky cover overnight. Despite cloud coverage overnight,
strong CAA will bring temperatures down to the upper 20s and low 30s
Thursday morning. Overnight, winds will very slowly relax as surface
high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

High pressure will continue to build in from the west on
Thanksgiving, which will allow winds to become light. The shortwave
trough will exit to the east and send a reinforcing shot of CAA to
keep temperatures chilly on Thursday. Expecting highs in the low to
mid 40s. Thursday night, light winds and clear skies will allow for
very efficient radiational cooling. Looking to see temperatures in
the upper teens and low 20s for lows on Friday morning. Black Friday
will also be chilly with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Friday night, upper ridging will build over the region ahead of a
deepening trough that will swing through the mid-Mississippi Valley
and into the Great Lakes region. At the surface high pressure will
slip off to the east and winds will veer to the south. The low
pressure will develop over the central Plains and is expected to
pass north of the region. Saturday should remain dry through most of
the day as the system is still to the west and there is dry air
remaining over the region. Going into Saturday night, a strong LLJ
will usher in better moisture. Though due to the timing of the
system during diurnal minimum and a cold airmass overhead, precip
with this system may begin as snow or frozen precip and quickly
transition to rain. Forecast confidence has definitely increased
over the last day, given better ensemble and deterministic
agreement. Though, if the low tracks a little more southerly (not by
much) we will see more snowfall (especially over the nw portion of
the region). Will need to continue to monitor this system, as it
could be impactful for the weekend post-holiday commuting.

High pressure is expected to follow this system, bringing drier
conditions for Monday. Monday will likely be chilly with strong CAA
in the region.

Broad troughing is likely to remain over most of the CONUS and messy
SW flow aloft will bring precip chances for Tuesday and mid next
week. Deterministic guidance and some ensembles want to bring
another trough through late Tuesday. Currently, this trough swings
mostly through the SE CONUS and may bring some light snow to the
lower Ohio Valley but mostly misses us as it sends precip along the
eastern seaboard. Will have to monitor where this system tracks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A broken to
overcast layer of low VFR ceilings extends west into central
Illinois, but into the overnight hours, skies will clear as the
clouds move off the the east. Gusty west winds will begin to ease
slightly tonight, but gusty conditions will continue through the
day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...KDW