003
FXUS63 KLMK 191540
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1040 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cloudy and cool conditions are expected today, with patches of
  drizzle possible this morning.

* Active weather pattern will bring additional rainfall to the area
  Thursday through Saturday, though flooding and severe weather are
  not expected at this time.

* The late weekend and into early next week will see drier
  conditions, before another chance for rain arrives by the middle
  of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Surface analysis reveals a stationary front just south of the KY/TN
border region.  A gradient of temperature was noted across the area
with lower 40s across far northern Kentucky with upper 40s/lower 50s
in the Parkway regions of central Kentucky.  Across the far south,
upper 50s to the mid 60s were noted.

North of the stationary front, a cool northeast flow was noted and
area averaged model soundings show a pretty stout inversion around
850 hPa. Low-level moisture is trapped beneath this inversion and
low clouds with areas of drizzle, mist, and fog will be seen for the
next several hours.  Some improvement in the visibilities will be
seen later this morning and into the afternoon hours, but cloudy
conditions will remain through the day.  As for highs, not expecting
much of a diurnal rise here.  Highs will range from the mid-upper
40s over southern IN to the upper 40s/low 50s in the Parkway region
of central KY.  The warmest temps will be down along the KY/TN
border where low-mid 60s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 347 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Early this morning, the last of the rain showers are clearing into
southern and southeastern KY as radars are quiet across most of the
CWA. What`s left of the sfc low pressure/cold front which
contributed to the development of showers and storms over the past
24 hours is meandering southward across southern KY this morning.
The mid-level disturbance which was supporting the sfc low is
crossing the Appalachians at this hour, and this setup will result
in further sfc cyclolysis later today.

Behind the remnant sfc front, an expansive area of low stratus
stretches across much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. In the
immediate vicinity of the sfc front, lower visibilities due to
patchy fog have been noted so far this morning; however, these have
generally improved once N/NE flow kicks up in the wake of the low.
As a result, we may be able to avoid dense fog headlines this
morning; however, obs trends will continue to be monitored through
the morning.

Today, sfc high pressure will move across the Great Lakes with the
remnants of the sfc front extending from the mid-Atlantic back into
the TN valley. The large area of low stratus overhead will have
difficulty eroding, with overcast skies likely remaining in place
through the day. Model soundings depict the layer of llvl saturation
at only about 2-4 kft deep; however, this could be just thick enough
for some patchy drizzle, especially this morning. With low clouds in
place and weak cold advection from N/NE flow expected, think
temperatures will struggle to warm much if at all through the day.
There should still be a north-to-south gradient in temperatures
today, though it shouldn`t be quite as stark as on Tuesday. The
current forecast has highs in the low-to-mid 50s across southern IN
and north central KY, but it remains a distinct possibility that
many locations will stay in the upper 40s. Across southern KY,
temperatures will likely be fairly stagnant in the upper 50s and low
60s.

Low clouds are likely to continue tonight into Thursday morning,
although some scattering will be possible across southern KY. If low
clouds scatter, dense fog would be possible, and there may be patchy
fog Thursday morning even in areas which don`t see clearing as a
result of weak winds near the surface. Because of low confidence,
we`ll keep fog out of the forecast tonight for now, but it is
certainly a possibility. Temperatures will fall very gradually
tonight as a result of the ample moisture; lows Thursday morning
should bottom out in the mid 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Thursday through Saturday Night...

Medium-range guidance has remained fairly consistent in showing an
unsettled pattern for the end of the week as multiple disturbances
are expected to move across the Ohio Valley between Thursday and
Saturday. The synoptic pattern will feature broad upper troughing
along the west coast, with a combination of northern stream
troughing and southern stream ridging leading to a zonal, highly
baroclinic flow pattern across the eastern CONUS. Within this zonal
pattern, several embedded pieces of upper-level energy will be
shedded off of the main trough out west before a final shortwave
slides across the region Friday night into Saturday morning.
Continued low-to-mid level S/SW flow will advect rich moisture into
the region, conditioning the environment for multiple rounds of
rainfall.

While the day on Thursday is expected to begin dry, the first chance
of rain is expected to move across the area Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. As this disturbance swings through the region, it
will help to lift the remnant frontal boundary over the TN Valley
back to the north. Exactly how far north the front lifts Thursday
night into Friday will play a role in how much rain falls Friday
into Friday night, as it will serve as a focusing axis for
subsequent rounds of rain. The GFS continues to be on the drier side
as it lifts the front into Indiana on Friday, limiting precipitation
until the last wave/cold front swings through Friday night. In
contrast, the wetter Euro solutions keep the front suppressed to the
south over the Ohio Valley on Friday, resulting in greater support
from isentropic lift ahead of the main system passage. This would
also play an important role in temperatures, as the wetter/south
solutions are also cooler on Friday. At this time, the blended
guidance takes both solutions into account, resulting in widespread
rainfall amounts of 1-1.5". If subsequent runs trend toward the
Euro, amounts may need to be increased, though this should still be
below totals which would cause any considerable flooding issues.

Saturday morning, the final disturbance should clear the region,
resulting in drier weather for the second half of the weekend. At
this time, there is a chance for showers on Saturday, though there
is increasing likelihood that much of the afternoon will be dry,
especially along and west of I-65. Temperatures should remain near
or above normal into the weekend.

Sunday through Tuesday Night...

Upper ridging should build over the southern Plains and into the
Mississippi Valley on Sunday as a closed upper low continues to spin
over the western CONUS. This should allow drier air and high
pressure to be in control on Sunday, which looks like one of the
better days for outdoor activities over the next 7 days.

Early next week, there is fairly good agreement in the large scale
features as the upper low out west is expected to be forced eastward
by a northern stream wave. However, there are small-scale
differences between guidance which result in different sensible
weather impacts next Monday into Tuesday. The ECMWF has stronger
ridging ahead of the upper low, resulting in a slower propagation
eastward and delaying the next chance of rain across the area until
next Tuesday. In contrast, the GFS features weaker ridging and a
slightly faster system early next week, bringing rain chances in
during the day on Monday. While blended guidance does feature low-
end rain chances on Monday, there is a reasonable likelihood that we
remain dry until next Tuesday, when another chance for showers (and
possibly storms) moves through the region.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

An interesting period of weather looks possible as we head toward
the Thanksgiving holidays.  A decent mid-latitude cyclone looks to
pass to our west/northwest in the late Tuesday night and Wednesday
time frame.  Models show plentiful moisture and shear for widespread
showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.  However, the usual
uncertainties on instability remain and will not be resolvable
until early next week.  The GFS/GEM are the quickest bringing this
system through, while the Euro is slightly slower, by 12-18 hours.
This system will then likely usher in a much colder airmass as we
head into Thanksgiving Day.

Since our last extended discussion, several iterations of signal
analysis has been completed.  While earlier signal analysis had a
weak signal centered around 11/28, the latest iterations have a much
stronger signal for the same period.  Taking into account the
possibility of the upper pattern becoming a bit more amplified, this
signal may pass through the region in the 11/28-11/30th time frame.
All three dynamical models (GEM/Euro/GFS) are hinting at the
emergence of a southern stream system in this time frame which could
bring wintry weather to the region late Thursday and into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Pervasive low stratus with pockets of lower visibilities from patchy
fog and drizzle will continue this morning, with the lowest flight
categories expected between now and 15-16Z. Later today, a slow
improvement to IFR categories is expected, with low MVFR ceilings
possible this afternoon and evening. Winds should be light out of
the northeast today (generally less than 8 kt), with winds expected
to back to the N/NW at HNB and BWG this afternoon. Later in the
forecast period tonight, it is possible that the low stratus could
begin to scatter out, particularly at BWG, but confidence in this
outcome is low right now. With weak winds expected tonight into
Thursday morning, it is likely that moisture will settle, resulting
in lower visibilities. At this time, it doesn`t look like the low
clouds will scatter out completely until the day on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM....MJ/CSG
AVIATION.....CSG