117
FXUS63 KLMK 021132
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
632 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Cold November rain continues across the region this morning, but
   a drier trend will gradually settle in by the afternoon. Light
   rain lingers later in the day for the Lake Cumberland area.

*  Majority of the upcoming week will feature dry and mild weather.
   Next rain chances come Friday and possibly into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

The closed upper low is situated over southern IL and western KY
this morning, with broad scale forcing supporting additional light
rain showers moving northward with a slight eastward progression.
Rainfall amounts so far range between 0.05-0.50", with slightly
higher amounts focused over south-central KY as expected. We`ll see
light rain linger through much of the morning hours as the upper low
slowly shifts southeast toward the TN Valley. Light rain showers
remain possible through the morning hours, but are expected to
gradually taper off from west to southeast as the day progresses.
The drier trend will settle in mostly west of I-65 and north of the
KY Pkwys by 18z or so, with lingering PoPs mainly for the Lake
Cumberland region through the afternoon. That area could see an
additional 0.25" of rain throughout today. Clouds will hang over the
region for most of the day as well, which will aid in limiting temps
this afternoon to the 50s.

By this evening and into the overnight, dry weather and decreasing
clouds are expected as sfc high pressure moves in. This will support
good radiational cooling overnight, which will support temps
dropping into the 30s region-wide by tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

===== Monday - Thursday Night =====

Majority of the upcoming week will feature dry weather as the upper
flow pattern becomes zonal and sfc high pressure dominates a large
portion of the country. Temps for Monday and Tuesday are expected to
reach the low 60s in the afternoon, with chilly nights as temps dip
into the 30s. Tuesday looks to be a touch milder than Monday, with
some mid-60s possible.

By Wednesday, a quick moving upper shortwave will develop and cross
the Great Lakes region. This feature will support a dry cool front
to trail through much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Ahead of that
front, WAA regime will help boost our temps Wednesday, first with
mild morning lows in the mid-40s, then upper 60s by the afternoon,
with a chance for some areas to hit 70. Despite the front sweeping
through, we`ll lack moisture so no precip chances are expected.
However, we could be dealing with some breezy southwest winds
through the day, with gusts possibly exceeding 20-25 mph. Thursday
should have temps back to near normal with dry conditions as high
pressure briefly sits overhead.

===== Friday - Saturday =====

A second shortwave trough will be tracking across the country during
the mid-week, and will eventually arrive by Friday. This feature
will bring our next chance for widespread gusty showers and perhaps
some thunderstorms. There appears to be decent agreement between
deterministic solutions of at least a deeper moisture pool to work
with, thanks to a LLJ potentially strengthening to 40+kts ahead of
the front. This will also ramp up our shear parameters, which model
sounding already hint at a low-CAPE high-shear type of scenario with
mostly unidirectional speed shear profiles. Timing also appears to
be in slightly better agreement with PoPs peaking in the daytime
hours. Temps on Friday will be similar to Wednesday, with upper 60s
and perhaps a few spots hitting 70. However, confidence is lower
given the increased cloud cover and precip, though the WAA will be
much stronger than Wednesday.

Models diverge by the weekend and the potential for another quick-
hitting system. Confidence remains low on that until we can see
better agreement in the guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Light rain is beginning to gradually taper off this morning, and
this will be the trend through the rest of the morning. Confidence
in the flight cat forecast for the morning is low confidence given
the varying degree of impacts, and poor performance of guidance.
There is a mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR ongoing at the 12z TAF issuance
this morning. However, do expect conditions to gradually improve
across the entire region this afternoon, with all terminals set to
return to VFR by this afternoon or evening. Best chance for precip
through the morning will be at LEX and RGA, so decided to remove
precip mention at the other TAF sites due to the lower/isolated
chance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP