271
FXUS63 KLMK 022312
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
612 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Majority of the upcoming week will feature dry and mild weather.
   Next rain chances come Friday and possibly into next weekend.

*  Gusty showers and a few strong thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
   with the Friday system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 419 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

The closed upper low is now over central TN, and will continue to
slide SE through the afternoon and evening. Deeper moisture is
departing our area with this progression, and most of the rain has
dried up over the past few hours. Still a few light showers
lingering down near the Lake Cumberland region as expected.

We`ll have to watch where the heaviest clouds are during the 4 to 6
PM timeframe as this area won`t get any real mixing, and has just
had a light soaking rain. This will set the stage for a potential
fog setup for our SE CWA as we clear out tonight with light to calm
winds. Will advertise patchy fog roughly along and south of a
Bowling Green to Lexington, KY line.

Otherwise, the end of the rainfall starts a prolonged period of
drier and increasingly mild conditions through much of this week.
Look for temps climbing to the 55 to 60 degree range tomorrow under
mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 419 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Monday Night - Thursday Night...

Progressive zonal flow will dominate the upper pattern this week,
however this flow will stay void of any rain makers through at least
Thursday night. So, expect a dry bulk of the work week with
temperatures trending milder. Morning lows will still be quite
chilly in the low and mid 30s on Tuesday morning, but will also
trend milder and be more confined to the 40s for the remainder of
the week. Look for afternoon highs in the low and mid 60s on Tuesday
and Thursday, with milder values in the 65 to 70 degree range on
Wednesday.

Wednesday should be notably warmer and breezy as a clipper system
will quickly scoot through the Great Lakes region, and dry a dry
cool front through our area. The pressure gradient will be pretty
tight over our region this day, so could see some gusts in the 20 to
30 mph range. This warm advection combined with some sunshine should
allow for mid and upper 60s with some spots sneaking into the lower
70s. Temps fall off just a bit for Thursday behind the front.

Friday - Sunday...

Forecast models still generally agree on the next chances for gusty
showers and a few storms arriving for Friday ahead of a stronger
shortwave trough and a cold front trailing from a likely Great Lakes
region surface low. Looks to be a pretty tight pressure gradient in
place over our area once again as surface high pressure retreats
from the mid Atlantic coast and low pressure strengthens over the
Great Lakes. We`ll see a milder and more moist airmass advect into
the region on gusty SW flow. Could see 35 to 40 mph gradient gusts
if current progs are accurate as the low level jet strengthens over
the area ahead of strong mid to upper level forcing.

Do have some concerns for some embedded pockets of wind damage given
the strength of the low level jet and a pretty impressive (but
mostly unidirectional) low level shear profile. Forecast sounding
don`t show a whole lot of potential for much instability, but could
squeeze out just enough given the strong warm/moist advection for
some severe weather concerns. Something to keep an eye on depending
on exact timing for the Friday window.

Lower confidence for the rest of the weekend, however can have
pretty high confidence that a deep trough looks to develop over the
eastern CONUS and temperatures trend cooler. Could have some
additional rounds of gusty showers to deal with, but timing of
individual waves as that deeper trough envelopes the eastern CONUS
is too low confidence for details at this point.

Extended Forecast Discussion (Beyond Sunday and into Week Two)...

...First Wintry Weather of the Season Possible Near Veteran`s
Day...

Extended teleconnection pattern looks to set up with a strong
-NAO/-AO/+PNA pattern, though the EPO takes a small negative dip
just prior to the 10th of November.  This pattern supports the
development of a deep trough across the eastern CONUS with sharply
colder weather for the Ohio Valley.  Experimental signal guidance
from early October, has led the charge with the signaling of this
deeper trough centered around 11/10-11/11.  Dynamical models sense
this as well, though the GFS is likely too fast with its deeper
trough development next weekend.  Here, we prefer the slower Euro
and Canadian solutions and its ensembles.

Main impact in the Monday/Tuesday (11/10-11/11) period would be a
stronger perturbation aloft that may rotate into the Ohio Valley.
Deep pocket of colder air looks to accompany it and this could lead
to a rain to snow scenario across our region.  This cold will not
last though as it looks to be quick hitting and will depart rather
quickly by day 9-10.  After that, teleconnection patterns break down
quickly leading to a more zonal/milder pattern spreading across the
CONUS.  Signal analysis has a weak signal crossing around 11/14 with
a stronger crossing around 11/16.  The 11/16 crossing may produce
strong/severe storms as it crosses the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Low status deck continues to hold across the region.  However,
recent satellite imagery shows this layer starting to break up.
Current thinking is that low stratus will continue to scour out
through the evening with skies clearing overnight.  Combination of
light winds and wet grounds will likely lead to fog formation
overnight.  Recent guidance trends are hitting fog harder at
BWG/LEX/RGA.  Will trend TAFs downward a bit for more fog between
03/07-13Z for BWG/LEX/RGA. Outlook for Monday calls for VFR
conditions with a southwest breeze.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM....BJS
AVIATION.....MJ
EXTENDED.....MJ