947
FXUS63 KLMK 011542
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1142 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...Forecast Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Dry start to the weekend, but light rain makes a return to the
   region by this afternoon or evening as a weak cold front passes
   through. Best rain chances expected tonight. Rainfall amounts
   between tonight and tomorrow will range between 0.10-0.50 inches.

*   A drier pattern sets up for much of next of week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Anomalous closed low will drop out of the Midwest today, and slowly
transition through the mid Mississippi River Valley through tonight.
Ahead of this feature, deeper moisture is pooling with increasing
PWATs, and the low levels (1000-850mb) are steadily saturating.
Seeing some light returns on radar across our SW CWA this morning,
but so far not seeing any measurable precipitation hitting the
ground based off obs. This will change as we move into the mid and
late afternoon hours with models showing the deeper moisture winning
the saturation battle, and we`ll start to see some better forcing
ahead of the shortwave trough axis. The end result will be some
light rain for most locations along and west of I-65 before sunset,
then more widespread coverage across the entire CWA through tonight
(60-80% pops). QPF values between .1" to .4" are expected for most
through midday tomorrow before the system moves out of the area and
we return to a dry and increasingly milder stretch of weather
through the new work week. Temps will struggle today under the heavy
cloud cover and weak cool advection behind the passing surface cool
front. 55 to 60 still looks like a reasonable range, a fairly small
overall diurnal range from this morning`s lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

It is a quiet but chilly start to our Saturday, with morning obs
showing temps in the upper 30s for most. Upper level clouds have
been streaming over the area this morning, and expect cloud cover to
continue increasing through the day as an upper closed low spins
down from northern Iowa/Illinois to the mid-Mississippi River
Valley. While we start off dry this morning, light rain chances will
make a return to the area later on today as a weak cold front passes
through the region.

We could begin seeing some light radar returns by  early afternoon
ahead of the approaching cold front, but virga will be possible as
we could have some low level dry air to work through first. Due to
the increasing clouds and cooler W flow, temps will struggle to get
out of the 50s this afternoon.

PoPs really ramp up by the late afternoon and evening, and
especially as we get into the overnight hours, as deeper moisture
and mid-level forcing behind the front promote an increased coverage
in light rain. However, PWATs are not expected to be overly
impressive, with the HREF suggesting just a 40% chance of exceeding
the daily median of 0.7". Best chances for slightly higher PWATs
will be across central KY later today.

Rain chances peak this evening and overnight, with a case of high
PoPs but low QPF. The deterministic forecast calls for roughly 0.10-
0.50" of rainfall between today and tomorrow, with the higher
amounts possible across the Commonwealth. The NWS Probabilistic
Precip Portal paints the area between I-69/I-169 and I-65 as having
the greatest chance for slightly higher rainfall amounts, with
approximately an 80% chance of exceeding 0.25" and a 50% chance of
exceeding 0.50". Rainfall amounts pushing 1" are unlikely given the
lack of higher PWAT values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

===== Sunday - Sunday Night =====

The upper closed low will be centered directly over our area on
Sunday, with the weak cold anafront gradually sliding east of the
region by the middle of the day after briefly getting hung up over
the area Sunday morning. Low end rain chances will linger through
the morning hours due to the proximity of the boundary, but a drier
trend will settle in by the afternoon as the better moisture shifts
east. These PoPs will be highest across KY and south of the Ohio
River, so our southern IN counties may end up drier earlier in the
day.

It should be a fairly grey day with abundant cloud cover, thanks to
the closed low. However, we could begin seeing improvements to our
skycover by the late afternoon or evening hours. Temps will struggle
to get above the mid-50s during the afternoon, but with clearing
skycover overnight, better radiational cooling will allow temps to
drop into the 30s region-wide Sunday night.

===== Monday - Friday =====

By Monday, the upper low will have shifted over the southeast US,
leaving the rest of the US to take on a more zonal upper flow
regime. This pattern will result in a rather quiet week of weather.
Upper ridging sets up for the middle of the week, which will
probably be a response to being sandwiched between two upper
shortwaves developing across the US. The first shortwave will move
across the Great Lakes on Wednesday before deepening as it pushes
off the East Coast on Thursday. The second shortwave will be moving
across the US and will eventually be the feature to bring rain
chances back to the area by the end of the week.

Temps for Monday and Tuesday will be returning to near normal for
early November, with lower 60s expected. Sfc high pressure will be
situated over the region for the first part of the week. By
Wednesday, the sfc high will likely slide over the southeast US,
which will promote a slight warm up as we get into a WAA regime with
return flow. Temps for Wednesday are forecast to hit the upper 60s.
We`ll likely see a dry cool front slide southward through the area
by Thursday, which could bring a brief CAA period, but temps on
Thursday will remain near normal.

Precip chances make a return to the forecast area by Friday as the
second upper shortwave pivots across the central US. A healthy LLJ
ahead of the sfc low should provide a decent moisture fetch into the
region, and we could see some isentropic showers first on Friday
morning before the better frontal forcing arrives later in the day.
PoPs will continue into Friday night and into Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

High and mid-level clouds are on the increase this morning, though
all terminals are still in VFR status. We`ll see cigs lower this
morning, with rain chances beginning to creep into the region by the
afternoon. However, rain chances peak this evening and into the
overnight, along with lower cigs and vis restrictions. High
confidence on seeing MVFR flight cats overnight and prevailing
through the end of the forecast period. BWG is expected to have the
most restrictions, and could see IFR conditions for several hours
tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP