854
FXUS63 KLMK 081805
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
105 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded slightly westward
  and extended until 1 PM EST.

* Wednesday, a cold front brings limited rain chances north of the
  parkways.

* Cooler air arrives for the weekend. Highs in the teens and lows in
  the single digits are possible for some.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Snow has tapered across the Bluegrass region, with the main area of
snow now located across eastern KY and WV. The winter weather
advisory was allowed to expire at 1 PM EST.

Issued at 949 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

At this hour, water vapor imagery and 14Z SPC mesoanalysis shows the
mid-level trough axis moving across the lower Ohio Valley. A
concentrated area of light to moderate snow showers is now pushing
to the east of Interstate 65, with this area of snow showers co-
located with deeper saturation. RAP soundings show some saturation
up into the DGZ, allowing for more efficient, heavier snowfall
rates. So far, we`ve seen multiple reports of snowfall amounts
between 0.5 and 1.5", with the heaviest amounts generally along the
I-64 corridor. Short-fuse expansions to the winter weather advisory
were made earlier this morning, with almost all of our KY Bluegrass
counties now included through 18Z. A special weather statement also
remains in effect through 17Z for minor impacts from snow for areas
around the advisory.

From now through early this afternoon, snow should end from west to
east as we lose deeper saturation and get large-scale mid-level
subsidence in the wake of the trough axis. With northerly flow and
low stratus remaining over the area later today, temperatures should
only marginally warm this afternoon, with forecast highs in the low-
to-mid 30s remaining on target at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 419 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

As a shortwave in the upper trough begins to push east into the
Lower Ohio Valley, we are beginning to see an increase in returns on
radar as saturation is starting to reach the DGZ. Temperatures have
continued to fall from near 40 at 2z to just above freezing along
Interstate 64. The cooling trend will continue as precipitation
chances increase in the coming hours. Snow will develop over
southern Indiana and over most of central Kentucky northeast of
Bowling Green. Accumulations are expected to range from a dusting to
slightly over an inch with the highest amounts expected in the
Bluegrass.

Early this afternoon, precipitation will push east out of the CWA.
Skies will try to clear from the northwest to southeast throughout
the day, but continued northerly winds will limit high temperatures
to the 30s.

Tonight, surface high pressure, centered over Michigan and western
New York and extending southwest to eastern Texas, will be over
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This will calm winds under
mostly clear skies, leading to radiative cooling. Temperatures fall
into the upper teens to mid to upper 20s with the coolest
temperatures over the Bluegrass.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 419 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tuesday, with the surface high east of Kentucky and a surface low
over the western Great Lakes, the pressure gradient over the Lower
Ohio Valley will drive southwest wind gusts to around 25 mph. Even
with some early cloud cover, high temperatures will rocket to the
low 40s to near 50.

Wednesday, northwest flow will carry a low pressure system near the
Indiana/Michigan border. This will drag the systems cold front
through the CWA during the day, and with strong WAA in place ahead
of the front, highs are expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s,
leaving precipitation all rain. Behind the front, Wednesday night,
CAA drops lows back below freezing with temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s.

Thursday and Friday continue to show a decent amount of uncertainty
in model guidance. Northwest flow remains in place, funneling
additional light precipitation chances towards southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, and with temperatures during the day being
slightly above freezing and slightly below at night, there could be
some mixed p-types. The better signal is will cooler temperatures
heading into the weekend.

This weekend, upper ridging continues to amplify over the West
Coast, keeping northwest flow through the CWA. Arriving Canadian air
is expected to drop high temperatures into the upper teens and 20s
with lows in the single digits to teens for some.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Light snow is clearing LEX and RGA at this hour, with visibilities
expected to improve shortly. For the rest of this afternoon, the
main impact to flight categories will be due to low stratus. While
gradual clearing/scattering of stratus is expected this evening,
exactly how fast this happens is only medium confidence. Winds will
remain out of the N/NE this afternoon, with winds going light and
variable this evening. VFR conditions are expected to return by
Tuesday morning, with winds picking up out of the south by mid-to-
late morning. 20-25 kt wind gusts are likely Tuesday afternoon, with
scattered mid-level clouds expected through the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CSG