986
FXUS66 KLOX 242221
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
221 PM PST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...24/123 PM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with
above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times
from Tuesday through Thursday. A cooling trend will develop next
weekend with areas of gusty north winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...24/220 PM.

High pressure is starting to build over the eastern Pacific and
this in conjunction with some offshore flow will create several
degrees of warming in most areas through at least Wednesday.
Widespread 70s are expected across coast and valleys both days,
but peaking on Wednesday with possibly even lower 80s in the
warmest areas. Per usual with offshore flow, especially in winter,
interior areas like the Antelope Valley, mountains, and far
interior SLO County will be much cooler. There is very little
upper level wind support with this event so while there will be
some purely gradient driven winds across the some coast and valley
areas, in general wind speeds should stay below advisory levels.
The primary exception to that will be the mountain areas,
including the Santa Lucias, where some local gusts to 45 mph will
be possible. This Santa Ana event has a little more northerly
component to it, so areas that are more exposed to the north such
as portions of the mountains and Santa Clarita as as well as the
San Fernando Valley will probably experience slightly stronger
winds than the last event, while other areas such as portions of
Ventura County will be slightly weaker.

Offshore flow is expected to weaken on Thanksgiving. Will still
likely have some breezy northeast winds in the same areas in the
morning but decreasing earlier in the day. Also, temperatures will
likely be a degree or two cooler across coast and valleys as the
sea breeze is allowed to begin earlier and push farther inland.
Increasing high clouds expected during Thanksgiving Day but no
rain.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...24/219 PM.

3-6 degrees of additional cooling is expected Friday as high
pressure along the West coast weakens and gradients continue to
trend onshore. Areas near the coast will notice the most cooling.

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty next weekend but a vast
majority of the ensemble solutions still favor a more inside track
to the next system. As a result, roughly 80% of all the ensemble
solutions still indicate little or no rain across our area. In
these patterns there is typically slightly higher chances for
some light precip in the mountains, potentially with lower snow
levels, but that will depend on the track of the low. For now
there is a 20% chance of showers next weekend and will likely
have to wait a few more days before there is increasing confidence
either way. At the very least temperatures should remain on the
cooler side next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1751Z.

At 1653Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based around 1800
feet. The top of the inversion was 4700 feet with a temperature of
15 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

High confidence in VLIFR to LIFR conds at KPRB. 20% chance for
VFR conds to prevail after FG clears this AM. Timing may be off
+/- 2 hours.

Moderate confidence in LIFR to IFR conds for KLAX, KSMO, and
KLGB. 20% chance for OVC002-004 conds with vsbys 1-2SM when cigs
are present at KLAX, with vsbys less 1SM possible for KSMO and
KLGB. Timing may be off +/- 3 hours. 20% chance for VFR conds to
prevail, highest at KSMO.

Moderate to high confidence in VFR conds for remaining coastal
TAFS. 20% chance for LIFR to IFR conds sometime 06Z-18Z, highest
for KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance for OVC002-004 conds
with vsbys 1-2SM when cigs are present. 15% chance for VFR conds
to prevail. Moderate to high confidence in any east wind
component remaining below 8 kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Less than 10% chance for brief
VLIFR conds 12Z-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/159 PM.

Seas will linger above or near 10 feet more than 20 NM from shore
through tonight before decreasing well below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) criteria. Conditions will remain relatively mild nearshore
through Thanksgiving week, but there is a moderate chance for
north-northeast winds gusting 20-30 knots nearshore from Ventura
to Santa Monica Tuesday through Thursday, with strongest winds
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon.

Winds and seas will being to increase to SCA levels across the
Outer Waters, and potentially nearshore along the Central Coast as
early as Friday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty for this
weekend, but there is a moderate to high chance for widespread
SCA conditions, including nearshore. Seas will likely increase to
15 feet across the outer waters, and 6 to 8 feet inside the
Southern California Bight. There is a low to moderate chance for
widespread Gale Force Winds. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox