780
FXUS66 KLOX 041104
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
304 AM PST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...04/227 AM.

A moderate Santa Ana wind event will bring gusty northeast winds
to portions of southern California today. Cold conditions will
bring freezing conditions to some areas each morning today and Friday.
A significant warming trend will begin this weekend and peak next
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/243 AM.

A low end Santa Ana wind event is just starting. Currently the
offshore gradients are between 3 and 4 mb offshore and will peak
between 4 and 6 mb later this morning. There is a little upper
level support along with a little cool air advection to help the
winds along. Wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph will develop in the
Santa Ana wind corridor (10 miles or so around a line from the
Santa Clarita vly to the western Santa Monicas). There will be
isolated gusts to 55 mph along the windiest mountain ridges.

Away from the winds, the cool and dry airmass along with clear
skies will allow for rapid cooling and freeze warnings are in
effect for the far interior including the Antelope Vly. A Frost
advisory is in place for the Cuyama Vly and the Antelope Vly
foothills.

The offshore flow will warm most areas 1 to 3 degrees. The Central
Coast will be the exception where 4 to 5 degrees of warming will
occur. The Antelope Vly will cool some as cool air advects in from
the high desert. Most max temps will come in near normal today.

It will be cold again in the wind sheltered locations tonight and
a freeze watch is in effect for the same areas under a warning
this morning.

Not too much to talk about for the Friday and Saturday forecasts.
An upper high will nose in from the west and hgts will push up to
582 dam. The offshore flow will continue, but will be weaker than
today, and this will keep the low clouds away. There will be some
gusty canyon winds in the morning, but with no upper support and
weaker gradients they will not reach advisory levels. The
weakening offshore flow will bring two days of cooling to most of
the csts and lower vlys while the rest of the area warms under
sunny skies and rising hgts. By Saturday the mtns and interior
will will end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The nearshore area,
however, will be a degree or two under normal.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/303 AM.

Good agreement with all medium range mdls and ensembles. Ridging
is forecast to persist over the area. Hgts will increase to at
least 586 dam by mid week.

Offshore flow will persist through the period and should eliminate
or at least greatly minimize the low cloud coverage. The Long
Beach area and western SBA county stand the greatest chc of seeing
some morning low clouds. The offshore flow will not be strong
enough to generate any advisory level winds.

That leaves the temperatures, which will be the main talking point
for the xtnd forecast. It looks like there will be three days of
warming everywhere with just a little nearshore cooling Wednesday
as the offshore flow weakens some. Went above guidance for the Tu
and Wed temps as usually the blended algorithms are slow to catch
on to events that are well out of the norm.

Right now it looks like there will be 2 to 4 degrees of warming
each day except Tuesday and for the coastal cooling Wednesday.
Tuesday should see 3 to 6 degrees of warming. Max temps Tue and
Wed will end up 10 to 15 locally 20 degrees over normal. Vly temps
will be in the 80s and there is an outside shot of isolated 90 or
91 degree readings.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0603Z.

At 0510Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based
inversion with a top of 1000 ft and temperature of 16C.

High confidence in cig/vis fcst. Moderate confidence in wind fcst
for KOXR, KCMA, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF. Wind direction may be off
by +/- 30 degrees and speeds by 5-10 kts.

lgt-ocnl mdt turbulence is possible over and near to higher
terrain.

KLAX...High confidence in cig/vis fcst. There is a 30% chance of
a 6-8 east wind component 09Z-19Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Ocnl LLWS is possible after 09Z-19Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/928 PM.

Northeast offshore winds will impact portion of the coastal waters
south of Santa Barbara County tonight through Thursday morning.
The strongest winds will be nearshore from Ventura Harbor south to
Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel off the coast of
Orange County. Winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts up to 35 kt will
be possible. There is a 60 percent chance of east wind gusts
15-25 kt occuring across east-facing harbors on Catalina Island
Thursday morning.

Friday afternoon through Monday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds
are possible (40-60% chance) across the outer waters, with the
greatest chances in the afternoon and evenings north of the
Channel Islands. Seas may exceed 10 feet across the aforementioned
area over the weekend. Otherwise and elsewhere, mild conditions
are expected Thursday through at least the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning
      for zones 38-357-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday morning
      for zones 87-349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Warning remains in effect until 8 AM PST this morning
      for zones 343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Watch in effect from late tonight through Friday
      morning for zones 343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zone
      354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox