786
FXUS66 KLOX 040016
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
516 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/508 PM.

An upper-level trough of low pressure will continue to exit the
region through Saturday. Skies will continue to clear with gusty
northerly winds expected in portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura,
and Los Angeles Counties into early Saturday. Cooler than normal
conditions will linger into late next week as broad troughing
remains over the West. A warming trend is possible for late next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...03/134 PM.

An upper low moving through the Central Valley created enough
instability to deliver a few light showers across LA County this
morning and early afternoon, however most of that is over and the
main impact through the rest of today and tonight is the wind.
Strong west to northwest winds across the coastal waters will
spread into some of the coastal areas, particularly the Central
Coast and southwest Santa Barbara County where wind advisories are
in effect. Should also see an uptick in winds across the Grapevine
region and Antelope Valley as well this evening.

With the upper low moving into the Great Basin Saturday onshore
flow reverses to a light offshore push in the morning and
forecast soundings indicate much drier conditions in the boundary
layer. This should lead to a sunny start to the day in most areas
and at least 3-6 degrees of warming. Models continue to show
another shot of northerly winds Saturday evening but not as
strong or widespread as today. Sunday will be similar to Saturday
in most areas with a slight warning trend, mainly inland areas.
Highs will still be a few degrees below normal in most areas.

A few degrees of cooling expected Monday as the next upper low
dropping out of Canada carves a trough across the Great Basin and
California. May start to see a return of marine layer stratus by
that time, but otherwise minimal impacts locally.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/154 PM.

The trough will remain in place into next weekend keeping
temperatures cooler than normal, and likely with a steady dose of
marine layer stratus that may reach the valleys, but otherwise
very low impact weather across the area at least through Thursday.

The forecast gets significantly more complicated at the end of
next week as that trough continues to deepen along the West Coast,
while at the same time some of model solutions are showing another
tropical system moving up the coast from Mexico. A few of those
solutions actually bring some rain to southern California as early
as next Friday. It will likely take well into next week to get
some clarity on this pattern but for now there are some slight
chances for rain in the forecast late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0016Z.

At 1726Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2300 ft deep, with a weak
inversion up to 3000 ft with a maximum temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions for KPMD and KWJF.

Overall, moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. VFR conditions
are expected at all sites, except for a 10-20% chance of brief
MVFR cigs developing between 10Z-17Z at KPRB, KLAX, KSMO, KBUR,
KVNY, and KLGB.

Gusts may be off by up to 10 kts during peak winds for all sites
with gusts of 20 kt or more.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Timing of wind shifts
may be off by 2 hours, and there is a 15% chance of BKN008-BKN018
cigs from 12Z-17Z Sat. Between 05Z-17Z Sat, there is a 30% chance
of an east wind component reaching 8 kts.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Timing of wind shifts
may be off by 2 hours, and there is a 10% chance of BKN010-BKN025
cigs from 13Z-16Z Sat.

&&

.MARINE...03/756 AM.

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters around Point
Conception and south to San Nicolas Island as well as across the
entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon into the
late night hours. Along with dangerous seas, winds up to 40 kts
are possible. Localized Gale force wind gusts are possible for the
waters nearshore along the Central Coast out to 30 NM from shore
this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will linger
following Gale force winds for the outer waters and portions of
the inner waters thru Saturday night. After Saturday night,
conditions generally look to remain below SCA criteria through
mid-week.

For the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange counties, high
confidence in widespread SCA level NW to W winds this afternoon
through evening, including nearshore (specifically Long Beach &
northward). Localized Gale force winds will occur from Anacapa
Island to Point Mugu and Santa Barbara Island during this period.
Thereafter, conditions generally look to remain below SCA criteria
through mid-week.

Seas will be large and very choppy, peaking between 8 and 12 feet
for the Outer Waters and nearshore Central Coast waters, and 5 to
8 feet for the inner waters south of Point Conception, highest in
the Santa Barbara Channel. Seas may reach 10 feet in the southern
portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.

These strong NW to W winds and large, choppy seas will create
dangerous boating conditions for many of the nearshore waters
around the islands and at the coasts. These conditions will be
especially dangerous for small vessels. Remain in safe harbor
today through tonight until conditions improve.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 349-351-352-378-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox