777
FXUS66 KLOX 220421
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
821 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...21/740 PM.

Scattered light showers are possible tonight into early Saturday
in eastern Los Angeles County, mainly in the mountains, along
with gusty east winds. Dry weather is expected for the rest of the
weekend and lasting through at least Thanksgiving. High
temperatures will rise to near to slightly above normal next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...21/735 PM.

***UPDATE***

An upper closed low circulation is centered about 300 miles
southwest of Los Angeles, and is forecast to shift eastward over
the next 24 hours to the intersection between Arizona, SE
California and northern Mexico. A counter-clockwise circulation
around the low is wrapping some moisture into SW California from
the south and causing gusty Santa Ana winds. These easterly winds
are forecast to increase tonight and Saturday in Santa Ana wind-
prone areas. The strongest gusts will be between 35 to 50 mph
over the mountains and foothills, with locally stronger gusts
possible. Meanwhile, scattered to isolated showers will be
possible over eastern interior L.A. County, mainly over the
eastern San Gabriels. Only light accumulations under around a
third of an inch are expected, with light snow flurries possible
at times above 6,000 feet. Finally, temperatures will warm some
on Saturday with highs up anywhere from 3 to 6 degrees for the
coast and some valleys, and 5 to 10 degrees over the interior.

***From Previous Discussion***

Light onshore flow will be returning to the area Sunday and
Monday that will cool off the coastal areas slightly but most
valleys will notice little change. With the shift to onshore flow
there is at least a small chance of some marine layer stratus
developing but forecast soundings currently are not very favorable
for that. Otherwise, skies expected to be mostly clear Sunday and
Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/202 PM.

The rest of Thanksgiving week is expected to be mild or even
slightly above normal as pressure gradients shift back to
offshore by 2-5mb based on the latest ensemble gradient charts.
Thanksgiving Day is expected to be sunny with highs around 70 near
the coast and approaching 80 in some of the warmer valleys in
LA/Ventura Counties.

Looking ahead models are still indicating the next weather system
to move into the area later next weekend. Earlier model runs had
been favoring another potential strong system but more recent
solutions have trended more towards an inside slider pattern as
the 12z GFS/EC models are showing. At the very least temperatures
will trend cooler next weekend, but at this point confidence in
any one model run is very low.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0018Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a 10-20% chance for showers
through the period, best chances for Los Angeles County through
18Z. Mostly VFR conds, but brief period of MVFR cigs are possible.
Low confidence, but there is a 10-20% chance for VLIFR to LIFR
cigs and vsbys at KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY between 08Z and 18Z as
radiation fog may develop overnight. East winds will continue at
many sites through the period.

Moderate LLWS and turbulence likely through the period, especially
over mountainous terrain over Ventura and Los Angeles County.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance for showers through
the end of the period with best chances through 18Z. Lower
confidence in winds as models have trended lighter in terms of
magnitude of east winds through the period. There is a 40% chance
for an east wind component of 8 kt through 19Z. Most likely time
frame is through 07Z, then 13Z-19Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. 20% chance for showers through
the end of the period with best chances through 18Z. Wind speeds
may suddenly increase and decrease at times overnight. 10-20%
chance for VLIFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys from 10Z to 18Z as
radiation fog may develop overnight.

&&

.MARINE...21/707 PM.

A few lingering showers may occur south of Point Concpetion into
Saturday morning, but the main threat of rain and thunderstorms
has passed.

A combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas will
continue across the Outer Waters and nearshore Central Coast
Waters at times over the weekend. Conditions are likely to
improve by Sunday, but there is a moderate chance for SCA
conditions to hold on into early next week, especially beyond 20NM
from the Central Coast.

South of Point Conception, Santa Ana winds will continue to impact
nearshore from Ventura to Malibu through Saturday afternoon, with
moderate chances winds the Channel Islands. Conditions will
improve Saturday evening into next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 2 PM PST Saturday for zones
      88-354-355-358-362-369-371-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones
      340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for
      zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/CC
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox