067
FXUS66 KLOX 101123
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
323 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...10/322 AM.

Today will be very warm and dry, especially across the Los
Angeles and Ventura County valleys. A cooling trend will start
Tuesday, ahead of the incoming storm system. Rain may start as
early as Wednesday night, however the heaviest rainfall is likely
to occur Thursday morning into Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...10/259 AM.

The high pressure that has been over the region these past few
days will have one final day in the area before weakening and
moving eastward on Tuesday. As the high pressure moves out of the
area Tuesday into Wednesday, the offshore flow will weaken and
switch to onshore by Wednesday. Then, a trough will start to push
into the west coast starting late Wednesday night.

Low clouds and dense fog are currently stretching along the coasts
and pushing a little bit inland this morning, so dense fog
advisories are currently in effect until 9am. Could see the
Central Coast advisories being dropped early due to visibilities
already lifting, likely due to the influx of higher level clouds
disrupting the marine layer. With a similar marine layer pattern,
high 500 mb heights, and similar offshore flow pattern, not
expecting high temps today to be too different compared to
yesterday. Meaning, highs will be in the 80s to 90s for a large
portion of the region, except in the 60s to 70s closer to the
coasts. These temperatures still remain about 10-20 degrees above
normal for this time of year and some valley locations may come
within a few degrees of daily record high temperatures again. As
for winds, the weak Santa Ana winds will continue, but with lack
of upper level support, expecting winds to remain under advisory
levels.

On Tuesday, a significant cooling trend will start up as the
onshore gradients start to increase and the 500mb heights start to
drop. Most areas will see a 5-10 degree drop in temperatures both
Tuesday, and again Wednesday. The marine layer will also deepen as
a result of the onshore trends and lowering heights, and low
clouds will likely push back into the valleys by Wednesday
morning.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...10/321 AM.

While still outside the high resolution model window, the EC and
GFS as well as their ensembles are somewhat coming into agreement
as well as the very end of the NAM window for the upcoming storm.
Timing wise, Thursday looks to be the main period for rain,
though there`s about a 12 hour window where the models disagree on
start times, with the NAM on the earlier side, bringing rain
across the Central Coast as early as Wednesday evening, and the
GFS and EC leaning towards the late Wednesday night to early
Thursday morning time period. Regardless of the start time, the
models do suggest that the front moving through will bring a
heavy, but relatively short period of rain, falling within about
5-10 hours.

Like many of the systems we get in SoCal, orographics will play a
role with south-southwest facing upslope areas getting twice to
three times the amount of rain at coasts. With the GFS and its
ensemble members showing rain totals slightly lower than the EC
and its ensemble members (which seems to be more often than not),
still leaning toward the previous forecast of rain totals of 1-2
inches across coasts and valleys and 2-4 inches across foothills
and mountains. As for rain rates, between a quarter and half
inch per hour rates are possible, with as much as 0.75 per hour in
the upslope areas. However, there remains a 30 percent chance for
higher totals than what is forecast. Especially as there is a
possibilty for convection as this system is cold, models are ever
so slightly hinting at upper level divergence, and the upper
level jet overhead. If convection does come to be a factor, rain
totals and rates could be locally higher wherever an individual
cell may form.

Snow levels will likely remain at or above 8000` for most of the
storm, then drop to around 6000 feet as the last of the precip is
moving through later Thursday night into Friday morning. At this
point it does not appear to be cold enough for snow on the
Grapevine, but some light accumulations (2-4") are possible down
to around 6000`.

Dry and cool weather expected next weekend with highs mostly in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

Additionally, looking out ahead to early next week, another storm
could be on the tails of the one at the end of this week. However,
early model projections at this time, do show the storm would be
lighter.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1120Z.

At 0840Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 400 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 1900 feet with a temperature of 27 degrees
Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.
There is a 10% chance for VLIFR-LIFR conds at KPRB, KBUR, and
KVNY from 14Z-17Z. 30% chance for cigs to develop after 11/10Z.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX due to low clouds
remaining on the periphery of each terminal. If cigs are able to
come in, vsbys of 1/2SM or less and cigs VV002 or lower are
likely. 40% chance for VFR conds to prevail until a return of low
clouds tonight (+/- 4 hours for arrival). There is a 30% chance
for no low clouds later tonight.

Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs. VLIFR to LIFR conds will
continue through the morning, and clearing times may be off +/- 2
hours. MVFR vsbys may linger through 22Z. Low confidence in return
of low clouds tonight. 20-40% chance for no low clouds late
tonight, highest at KCMA. If cigs develop, 25% chance for 1/2SM
vsbys and cigs VV002.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing between 15Z-19Z. 3-5SM
vsbys may linger through 23Z. Low confidence in arrival of
OVC002-007 cigs tonight. 30% chance for no low clouds. If cigs
develop, 25% chance for 1/2SM vsbys and cigs VV002. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. 10% chance for VV001-VV002 cigs
and vsbys less than 1/2SM thru 17Z. 30% chance for cigs
OVC002-007 to develop after 11/10Z.

&&

.MARINE...10/300 AM.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining relatively calm
through Wednesday. Then southerly winds ahead of the incoming
storm system will pick up late Wednesday, likely reaching 20-30
knots across a majority of the waters. After the front passes
Thursday, gusty NW winds of 20-30 knots will pick up and continue
across the entirety of the coastal waters through late Friday,
potentially into Saturday morning. Gale Force gusts up to 40
knots are likely (60% chance) during this timeframe, especially
south of Point Conception including the Santa Barbara Channel and
nearshore waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange counties.

Along with winds, the aforementioned storm system will bring
large, rough seas to the Coastal Waters Thursday afternoon through
late Friday night, including 8-10 foot seas for the inner waters
south of Point Conception. There is also a chance for
thunderstorms with frequent lightning and potential waterspouts
with the frontal passage. Thunderstorms can also create sudden,
intense wind shifts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for
      zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund/MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld/KL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox