375
FXUS66 KLOX 241220
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
420 AM PST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...24/344 AM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Friday with
above normal temperatures and gusty Santa Ana winds at times
from Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...24/420 AM.

The Catalina eddy is expected to strengthen and deepen the marine
layer inversion this morning across the LA coast. Low confidence
if low clouds and patchy fog will make it into the San Fernando
Valley. This is dependent upon the eddy`s strengthen, as well as
how much and how fast N-S gradients trend offshore. Areas of dense
fog is likely to continue across the Santa Maria Valley & Salinas
Valley through the mid-morning hours. Dense Fog advisories are in
effect thru 10 AM. Lingering marine layer stratus with a little
onshore push should allow coastal sections to cool some from
yesterday. Due to eddy and low sun angle (inhibiting mixing),
there is a small chance the marine layer lingers all day or most
of it. If this occurs, this would lower Maximum Temps especially
along the immediate coastline. N-NE offshore gradients are
expected to increase overnight. SMX-BFL gradients should increase
to roughly -3 to -3.5 mb indicating about a 40% chance of a wind
advisory being issued for a portion of the Santa Lucia Range
overnight into Tuesday. Even a touch stronger into Wednesday, so
chances for wind advisories will continue.

Healthy offshore gradients across our area will continue through
Thanksgiving day. Guidance suggests a weak to moderate Santa Ana
Wind event Tuesday through Turkey morning. LAX-DAG gradient of
(-6 mb) should peak Wednesday morning. The biggest caveat to the
setup is the lack of upper-level support (which looks best on
Tuesday). However, there should be enough overlap to support wind
advisories across Santa Ana Wind prone areas from late Tuesday
into Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, there is a low to moderate
chance for advisories to be issued across the Santa Monica mtns
including the coastal leeward side from Point Mugu to Malibu.

Saturated soils from recent rains will thankfully and greatly so
mitigate the wildfire threat. However, soft soils will allow for
trees to more easily be knocked over by winds. Make sure to secure
outdoor decorations and try to strategically park your car away
from trees if possible.

The downsloping winds will result in temperatures climbing 5-10
degrees above normal for many areas Tuesday and Wednesday.
Widespread temperatures in the 70s are likely even down to the
immediate coastline. Odds are warmest valley locations will reach
the low 80s especially on Wednesday. Expecting Temps to remain
above normal into Thursday with lingering Santa Ana winds into
the early afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...24/346 AM.

Santa Lucia winds (Likely Sub-Advisory) will continue through
Friday as the pressure gradients weaken some. Max Temperatures
will continue to cool some in Friday, with highs in the mid 60s
to low 70s and clear skies.

Quite of a bit of uncertainty continues regarding the weather
forecast for this weekend. As is fairly common at this range with
amplified large-scale patterns, guidance continues to flip flop
back and forth among the array of solutions. This appears to
mostly be caused by models inability to resolve the Pacific North
American (PNA) oscillation and rossby wave breaks. It also doesn`t
help that the North Pacific is a data-sparse region.

What is interesting is that the ensemble suites of EC, EC-AIFS,
& GFS have trended towards more of a -PNA - persisting into
early December. This appears to be cause by potential several
troughs over central-north pacific pumping mass into the ridge.
This would sustain a -PNA for some time, while rossby wave breaks
occur downstream. If this is realized, active weather might be
on the table even after this weekend. However, I digress since it
is too far out.

All in all, the system this weekend could range from a dry Santa
Ana Wind pattern, to a nuisance rain event, or even a storm with
snow for high elevations (a few solutions show this). Stay tuned
to the National Weather Service as we continue to monitor the
situation.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1047Z.

At 01015Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based around 800 feet.
The top of the inversion was 1700 feet with a temperature of
15 degrees Celsius.

For the 12Z TAF package, high confidence in KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and
KWJF. For all other sites, moderate confidence in forecasts due to
uncertainties in the behavior of the marine layer. Timing of
flight category changes this morning could be +/- 2 hours of
current forecasts. For tonight, there is a 30% chance that CIG and
VSBY restrictions do not develop at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight
category changes this morning could be +/- 2 hours of current
forecasts. For tonight, there is a 30% chance that CIG and VSBY
restrictions do not develop. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/246 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
Through this afternoon, a combination of Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level winds and seas will continue. For tonight through
Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels. On Friday, winds and seas are expected to increase to
SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Friday, there is a 40% chance of SCA level winds and seas
developing.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across all the
southern Inner Waters. For Tuesday, there is a 20-30% chance of
SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica,
increasing to a 60% chance Tuesday night into Wednesday, then
decreasing to a 30% chance Wednesday night and Thursday.
Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for
      zones 343-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox