Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
723 FXUS64 KLUB 041114 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 514 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 511 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Snow and sleet remains expected through Thursday morning for the far southern TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. Up to one inch with locally higher amounts are possible. - Generally warmer and drier Friday and into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1156 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 An upper trough is currently tracking eastward across New Mexico. While the system will generally weaken as it continues its eastward track, the combination of strong PVA downstream of the trough axis and a low-level jet is providing sufficient forcing to drive widespread mixed precipitation across much of the area. Sleet has been previously reported with a 20 degree dewpoint spread in the Lubbock area, however none of that actually accumulated. In any case, latest high-res guidance still shows the potential for heavier snowbands to develop, mainly across the far SW Panhandle and northern South Plains and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas. Mixed precipitation is currently seen on radar tracking across most of the area. Temperatures will cool through the overnight hours and much of the precipitation is expected to remain as slow and/or sleet. Totals of up to inch with locally higher amounts are possible. Use caution while traveling, especially during the morning commute. Precipitation will taper off from west to east trough mid-morning Thursday and should completely end by afternoon. Despite some partial afternoon clearing in the wake of the trough, highs will remain below average, only topping out in the low-to-mid 40s. Further clearing will occur in the evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The axis of an upper-level trough continues to sit overhead through Sunday before pushing off to the east early next week as an upper- level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. Quiet weather is expected this weekend with slightly above average temperatures on Friday and Saturday as westerly surface flow returns to the area. A weak shortwave trough may traverse the area Sunday, bringing a weak cold front through the CWA Sunday morning and cooler high temperatures mainly in the 50`s. However, the cool down Sunday will be brief, as the upper-level ridge begins to move overhead, bringing above average temperatures to the area as we move into early next week aided by southerly surface winds and southwesterly 850mb winds. Temperatures could reach into the 70`s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 IFR to LIFR CIGs will continue at all terminals through late morning with a gradual increase to VFR by the afternoon. VIS restrictions will continue at PVW and CDS through the early morning as a band of snow moves across the region. VIS will increase to VFR behind the passage of the snow band. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ021>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...51