155
FXUS64 KLUB 051737
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1137 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Warming up today with breezy southwest winds across the
   Caprock.

 - Even warmer Saturday, with windy conditions across the Caprock
   and breezy conditions off the Caprock.

 - Localized areas of elevated fire weather concerns possible
   Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Compared to what we have seen and experienced the last few days
across the region, we can expect the exact opposite for the short
term period. The shortwave trough that brought us the cooler and
wetter conditions mid-week will continue its progression eastward
while the base of the trough associated with the closed low over the
eastern Canadian provinces spirals east. Meanwhile, a surface trough
located over the Texas Panhandle will influence breezy westerly
winds across the FA through the afternoon with speeds around 15 to
20 mph and occasional gusts to 30 mph. As a result of these drier
and warmer winds, combined with clear skies and subtle uptick in
thickness values will allow for temperatures to climb into the 50s
and 60s this afternoon. Winds will calm after dark, while
temperatures drop cooler from previous days, thanks to clear skies
allowing for max radiational cooling, with subfreezing lows area-
wide in the 20s and lower 30s. Almost a rinse and repeat forecast is
expected Saturday, main difference will be wind speeds will become
windy, mainly across the Caprock. In response to the weak H5
shortwave translating through the High Plains, a lee cyclone will
develop across eastern CO, working to tighten the pressure gradient
across the West Texas region. Pressure gradient rises around 7 to 8
mb over a 3 hour period suggest winds will inch close to wind
advisory criteria. Given this, NBM wind speeds seemed far too low,
and were raised using a blend of NBM and NBM 90th percentile to
depict wind speeds around 20 to 30 MPH across the Caprock with gusts
up to 40 MPH possible. Highest speeds look to be fixated closer to
the surface low, over the far southern Texas Panhandle. Off the
Caprock will see wind speeds around 15 to 20 MPH. Will hold off on a
Wind Advisory at this time, allowing the next shift to take one more
look at new guidance. These winds will work to bring in WAA into the
region, which along with another day of sunny skies will allow
temperatures to climb into the 60s to near 70 degrees. Warm, dry,
and windy conditions tomorrow could lead to a few localized areas of
fire weather concerns, especially across the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A weak front will pass through the region late Saturday night into
early Sunday morning as the surface low shifts into the Southern
Plains and the H5 shortwave swings a front through the region. This
will allow for temperatures to cool back down for Sunday into the
50s and 60s. Unfortunately we are expected to see the return of mild
temperatures by next week, as a very uneventful synoptic pattern
sets up for the region. A series of troughs will translate through
the Great Lakes region, while an upper level high begins to build
over the western CONUS. This will lead to predominately
northwesterly flow aloft across the region. While at the surface,
winds will remain out of the west-southwest as a series of surface
troughs set up across eastern NM and southeastern CO. This will lead
to temperatures climbing well above seasonal normals in the 60s and
70s under the usual West Texas afternoon breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through the period. A
few gusts will be possible, primarily at KLBB this afternoon, with
speeds decreasing around sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12