615
FXUS64 KLUB 231118
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
518 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Patchy fog possible over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle
   and northern portions of the Rolling Plains this morning.

 - Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, possible through much
   of the day.

 - Mostly quiet weather from Monday through Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Water vapor imagery shows an upper low currently over the Desert
Southwest as of 11 PM. This upper system will translate
northeastward over the Four Corners region by the afternoon and
continue to the Central Plains by the end of the day bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region beginning
early this morning. Large scale ascent over the region will increase
as the progression of this upper system sets an upper level jet over
portions of the region. On the surface, moist southwesterly flow
will prevail through the day. Patchy fog will be possible over the
far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains given
moist lower levels, however is expected to dissipate before sunset.
The first round of showers and thunderstorms are expected just after
sunrise over western portions of the Caprock as surface winds begin
to increase effectively boosting isentropic lift. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will expand eastward as the upper jet sets up
overhead. Models indicate these storms will be more convective cells
than stratiform rain. Eastward storm motion is expected to be quick,
however heavy rainfall with the possibility for localized flooding
can be expected, especially over the Rolling Plains with PWAT values
just under 1.25 inches. With adequate forcing from the upper jet and
model soundings indicating moderate elevated CAPE, isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible, especially off the Caprock with the
main hazard being up to quarter size hail and severe winds gust up
to 60 mph possible. Shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish
this evening through overnight from west to east as the upper system
reaches central CONUS and the upper jet moves out of the region.
However, storms could prevail over southern portions of the Rolling
Plains through early Monday morning as a low level jet develops
tonight. Mostly cloudy skies and prolonged precipitation will cool
temperatures with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the west
to east clearing of clouds, a wide range of lows are expected
overnight. Areas to the west will see lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s. Areas to the east with lingering cloud cover will see lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Few forecast challenges await the extended as we return to a quieter
pattern on Monday. A Pacific cold front is expected to shove through
the area Monday morning scouring away any lingering low clouds,
possible fog and even drizzle. Sunday`s upper low will have shifted
over western KS by daybreak Monday leaving us with some breezy
westerly winds and milder temps under deep dry slotting. Meanwhile,
a northern stream trough in the Pacific Northwest should sweep
across the Dakotas and help accelerate a cold front our way for
either Tuesday afternoon or evening. Despite a healthy push of cold
air advection, moisture is non-existent with this front. Following a
dose of below-normal highs in the 50s for Wednesday, milder S-SW
breezes resume for Thanksgiving Day. This milder theme carries into
Saturday under deeper westerly flow, but we`ll be watching a major
amplification in the UA pattern by this time involving a longwave
ridge from the eastern Pacific all the way into the Arctic Circle.
Such a pattern strongly aligns with arctic outbreaks in the plains.
Suffice it to say our November could end on a sharply colder note
that carries into December. Preceding this pattern change could be
some gulf moisture on Saturday with low chances for rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An approaching upper level storm system will lead to deteriorating
flight conditions later this morning at all TAF sites. Rain
showers will accompany lower CIGS later this morning into the
afternoon hours. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be
possible although the coverage is expected to be low. Low CIGS and
visbys may persist through the overnight hours tonight until
daybreak on Monday. However, it remains unclear on whether this
will drop into IFR territory.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...01