163
FXUS64 KLUB 221801 CCA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1132 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Quiet weather continues through the rest of today and into
   tonight.

 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Sunday
   morning and continuing through most of the rest of the day.

 - Dry conditions next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday morning)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Our next storm system has maintained an impressive presentation on
water vapor channel imagery over the past 24 hours, with the center
of a closed mid/upper level low observed just off the coast of the
Baja peninsula at 11 AM. Through the rest of today and into this
evening, quiet weather will continue as modest shortwave ridging
persists overhead. However, that will change quickly overnight as
southwest flow aloft deepens and strengthens considerably as the
closed low begins lifting northeastward. Models have trended a bit
slower and a bit farther northward with the system as a whole, with
consensus now placing the center of the low over the Four Corners by
about noon on Sunday. This slightly slower progression should still
support initial rain shower development over most of the Caprock
during the morning hours as isentropic ascent associated with
moistening southerly low level flow intensifies over the region. An
additional round of more robust shower and thunderstorm development
is then likely during the midday to early afternoon period as
forcing associated with a set of fairly potent mid and upper level
jet streaks moves overhead. Overall, it appears that precipitation
will take on a mainly cellular structure on Sunday rather than a
widespread shield of rain, but coverage is still expected to be high
enough to maintain categorical PoPs at this time. Rainfall totals
will be relatively light due to the expected quick eastward motion
of individual cells (up to about a tenth to a quarter of an inch for
most areas) with some heavier totals possible off the Caprock where
stronger convective cores look more probable. In terms of
temperatures, expect a relatively cool day given the precipitation
and cloud cover with highs in the 50s to near 60.

Given the strong synoptic scale forcing and some modest elevated
instability, a few isolated strong or marginally severe storms are
possible on Sunday afternoon, especially east of the I-27 corridor.
A cool and relatively stable surface layer suggests that some larger
hail will be the primary hazard with the strongest storms along with
brief heavy rain. Precipitation will end for most areas by around
sunset, but showers and a few storms supported by a strong low level
jet will remain possible through early Monday morning over the
Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A low pressure system and its associated front will track eastward
Monday and skies should quickly clear in its wake. Upper heights
will slightly rise through the day and due westerly downsloping winds
will allow for temperatures to rise into the mid 60s to near 70. A
series of dry surface cold fronts will move trough Tuesday and
Wednesday as a broad upper trough descends into the northern Great
Plains. The latter will be the coolest day of the week, with highs
only reaching the mid 50s for much of the area. Zonal flow behind
the trough will lead to temperatures rebounding back to slightly
above average into the mid 60s by Thursday and Friday. Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions are expected for the duration of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR and generally light winds will continue through the rest of
today and tonight. Towards the end of this TAF period, SHRA and
perhaps some TS are expected to impact LBB and PVW after sunrise on
Sunday. MVFR CIGs will also be possible beginning on Sunday morning,
but are more likely to occur just beyond the end of this TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30