Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
380 FXUS64 KLUB 301106 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 606 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 - Hot temperatures and dry conditions expected the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Hopefully y`all enjoyed the cloudy skies and cooler conditions from yesterday because it will the last for this week at least. Current water vapor imagery shows a dry slot of air filling in over the region. Therefore, can expect the cloudy skies to clear out west to east in the next few hours. Current radar imagery shows lingering showers over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. These showers are expected to dissipate in the next couple of hours. The upper troughing over the High Plains will move away from the region by this afternoon as ridging begins to build over Mexico and a secondary trough treks towards CONUS just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through much of the day, however will shift to zonal flow as the trough leaves the region. Southerly surface flow and mostly sunny skies will result in a slight warming of temperatures compared to yesterday. Highs will be in the lower 80s over northwestern zones and lower 90s across southeastern zones. Tonight will be quiet and cool with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 The main focus for the long term forecast are hot temperatures and dry conditions through the rest of the week. Upper ridging over Mexico will begin to build over NM with the eastern edge clipping the Texas Panhandle through the day Wednesday. Height and thickness increases will increase temperatures to the upper 80s to mid 90s on Wednesday. Some models indicate the possibility for precipitation developing over the Texas panhandle and tracking into our region over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains Wednesday afternoon. However, confidence on this occurring is low at the moment, therefore kept NBM PoPs as is. The upper ridging will continue to build and shift over our region the latter half of the week effectively increasing temperatures to well above seasonal normal and keeping conditions dry. Highs are expected to be in the 90s for much of the region through the weekend. The upper ridging will get pushed away from the region as an upper trough swings over western CONUS over the Intermountain West. Height and thickness falls will gradually cool temperatures to around seasonal normal the beginning of next week. Models indicate the possibility of a front tracking through the region Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...51